Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$-8.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 55 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,986

Combined PnL$-9.1K

Down40 traders

Total Value$16.6K

Total Shares16,617

Combined PnL+$540.05

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.5K	—	$-7.8K	55% 377-309 (686)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	+$33.45	40% 215-327 (542)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 97.1¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$464.21	50% 1805-1780 (3585)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$14.84	98% 3425-72 (3497)
MO mo-money	Downavg 94.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$97.46	49% 1297-1335 (2632)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 52.9¢	$687.18	$961.12	+$273.93	60% 967-652 (1619)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$950	—	-$938.55	51% 3170-3070 (6240)
AL almach	Downavg 96.2¢	$998.74	$774.38	+$31.02	50% 1311-1307 (2618)
BO bosona	Downavg 97.8¢	$902.69	$738	-$148.71	51% 4567-4423 (8990)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 52.3¢	$599.93	$493.32	+$5.88	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 44.7¢	$426.47	$475.63	+$75.86	44% 687-878 (1565)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 48.1¢	$386.51	$474.39	+$87.88	52% 2098-1948 (4046)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$158.05	$474.39	+$316.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$228.47	—	-$228.47
BL blue.birds	Downavg 62.1¢	$313.49	$389.42	+$76.89	52% 4903-4599 (9502)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$352.92	$383.39	+$30.47	55% 4334-3556 (7890)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.7¢	$167.38	$383.39	+$216.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$185.54	—	-$185.54
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 81.6¢	$406.18	$352.86	+$13.5	31% 634-1415 (2049)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 62.6¢	$166.08	$218.57	+$58.2	52% 813-760 (1573)
machinelearned	Downavg 55.9¢	$113.9	$192.42	+$78.52	46% 1003-1184 (2187)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 79.1¢	$160.02	$169.76	+$9.75	51% 732-712 (1444)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 42.3¢	$147.43	$157.1	+$40.62	46% 735-869 (1604)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 86.6¢	$142.45	$149.88	+$7.43	51% 796-751 (1547)
NIULAI4	Downavg 91.9¢	$142.45	$149.64	+$7.19	27% 447-1228 (1675)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 69.6¢	$113.51	$145.5	+$31.99	50% 731-722 (1453)
SU suntori	Downavg 95.9¢	$134.55	$140.28	+$5.73	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 35.1¢	$146.02	—	-$146.02	53% 4489-3914 (8403)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 97.3¢	$118.76	$122	+$3.24	52% 2502-2335 (4837)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,544

Value

—

PnL

$-7.8K

Record

55%

377-309 (686)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$33.45

Record

40%

215-327 (542)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$3,006.58

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$464.21

Record

50%

1805-1780 (3585)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,274.16

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.84

Record

98%

3425-72 (3497)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,155.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$97.46

Record

49%

1297-1335 (2632)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$687.18

Value

$961.12

PnL

+$273.93

Record

60%

967-652 (1619)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$950

Value

—

PnL

-$938.55

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

almach

Down

Invested

$998.74

Value

$774.38

PnL

+$31.02

Record

50%

1311-1307 (2618)

bosona

Down

Invested

$902.69

Value

$738

PnL

-$148.71

Record

51%

4567-4423 (8990)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$599.93

Value

$493.32

PnL

+$5.88

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$426.47

Value

$475.63

PnL

+$75.86

Record

44%

687-878 (1565)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$386.51

Value

$474.39

PnL

+$87.88

Record

52%

2098-1948 (4046)

Both legs:

Down$158.0533.3¢+$316.35

Up$228.4748.1¢-$228.47

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$313.49

Value

$389.42

PnL

+$76.89

Record

52%

4903-4599 (9502)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$352.92

Value

$383.39

PnL

+$30.47

Record

55%

4334-3556 (7890)

Both legs:

Down$167.3843.7¢+$216.01

Up$185.5456.6¢-$185.54

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$406.18

Value

$352.86

PnL

+$13.5

Record

31%

634-1415 (2049)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$166.08

Value

$218.57

PnL

+$58.2

Record

52%

813-760 (1573)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$113.9

Value

$192.42

PnL

+$78.52

Record

46%

1003-1184 (2187)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$160.02

Value

$169.76

PnL

+$9.75

Record

51%

732-712 (1444)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$147.43

Value

$157.1

PnL

+$40.62

Record

46%

735-869 (1604)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$142.45

Value

$149.88

PnL

+$7.43

Record

51%

796-751 (1547)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$142.45

Value

$149.64

PnL

+$7.19

Record

27%

447-1228 (1675)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$113.51

Value

$145.5

PnL

+$31.99

Record

50%

731-722 (1453)

suntori

Down

Invested

$134.55

Value

$140.28

PnL

+$5.73

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$146.02

Value

—

PnL

-$146.02

Record

53%

4489-3914 (8403)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$118.76

Value

$122

PnL

+$3.24

Record

52%

2502-2335 (4837)

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 55 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x069c416e...963056

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794663300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-7.8K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.8K

+$33.45

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.5K

-$464.21

hoodquant

Down — $1.3K

+$14.84

mo-money

Down — $1.1K

+$97.46

Bonereaper

Down — $961.12

+$273.93

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$938.55

almach

Down — $774.38

+$31.02

bosona

Down — $738

-$148.71

ByteBadger92

Down — $493.32

+$5.88

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