Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Up 72%
3 arb excluded
$18.4K
$-5.9K
Smart Money Signal
42 of 58 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.1K | -$7.81 | 55% 377-309 (686) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 40% 215-327 (542) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 66.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$73.13 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $930.01 | +$16.81 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 84.4¢ | $681.77 | $613.71 | -$68.06 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 70.9¢ | $633.03 | $599.47 | -$33.56 | 60% 967-652 (1619) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 80.6¢ | $529.79 | $509.68 | -$20.1 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 75.9¢ | $590.6 | $481.41 | -$109.19 | 44% 687-878 (1565) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 48.9¢ | $529.7 | — | -$496.46 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 67.3¢ | $466.6 | $449.05 | -$17.56 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $448.71 | $743.12 | +$294.41 | 50% 1805-1780 (3585) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $448.16 | $452.69 | +$4.53 | 99% 791-7 (798) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99¢ | $396 | $400 | +$4 | 48% 1394-1507 (2901) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 75.8¢ | $314.97 | $319.33 | +$14.12 | 53% 4489-3914 (8403) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 30.6¢ | $352.29 | $262.96 | -$89.33 | 46% 944-1097 (2041) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.5¢ | $169.73 | $262.96 | +$93.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.6¢ | $182.56 | — | -$182.56 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 75¢ | $358.32 | $281.89 | -$76.42 | 46% 735-869 (1604) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 78.5¢ | $520.59 | $267.91 | -$1.72 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $214.71 | $218.99 | +$4.28 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 69.7¢ | $197.28 | $210.97 | +$17.47 | 50% 705-700 (1405) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $256.04 | $64.17 | -$191.87 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.5¢ | $210.14 | — | -$210.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.5¢ | $45.9 | $64.17 | +$18.27 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 66.9¢ | $178.95 | $170.41 | -$8.54 | 31% 634-1415 (2049) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 77.1¢ | $138.45 | $157.66 | +$19.21 | 60% 907-614 (1521) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 64.3¢ | $144.27 | $173.49 | +$29.22 | 40% 704-1076 (1780) |
 ohioism | Upavg 67.5¢ | $158.94 | $132.85 | -$26.09 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 81.3¢ | $132.21 | $134.21 | +$2 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
Invested
$8,672
Value
$8.1K
PnL
-$7.81
Record
55%
377-309 (686)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
40%
215-327 (542)
Invested
$1,903.74
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$73.13
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
Invested
$950
Value
$930.01
PnL
+$16.81
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
Invested
$681.77
Value
$613.71
PnL
-$68.06
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$633.03
Value
$599.47
PnL
-$33.56
Record
60%
967-652 (1619)
Invested
$529.79
Value
$509.68
PnL
-$20.1
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$590.6
Value
$481.41
PnL
-$109.19
Record
44%
687-878 (1565)
Invested
$529.7
Value
—
PnL
-$496.46
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Invested
$466.6
Value
$449.05
PnL
-$17.56
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Invested
$448.71
Value
$743.12
PnL
+$294.41
Record
50%
1805-1780 (3585)
Invested
$448.16
Value
$452.69
PnL
+$4.53
Record
99%
791-7 (798)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$396
Value
$400
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
1394-1507 (2901)
FairValueMachineInvested
$314.97
Value
$319.33
PnL
+$14.12
Record
53%
4489-3914 (8403)
Invested
$352.29
Value
$262.96
PnL
-$89.33
Record
46%
944-1097 (2041)
Both legs:
Invested
$358.32
Value
$281.89
PnL
-$76.42
Record
46%
735-869 (1604)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$520.59
Value
$267.91
PnL
-$1.72
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$214.71
Value
$218.99
PnL
+$4.28
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
OhioAIInvested
$197.28
Value
$210.97
PnL
+$17.47
Record
50%
705-700 (1405)
Invested
$256.04
Value
$64.17
PnL
-$191.87
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.95
Value
$170.41
PnL
-$8.54
Record
31%
634-1415 (2049)
Invested
$138.45
Value
$157.66
PnL
+$19.21
Record
60%
907-614 (1521)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$144.27
Value
$173.49
PnL
+$29.22
Record
40%
704-1076 (1780)
ohioismInvested
$158.94
Value
$132.85
PnL
-$26.09
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
Invested
$132.21
Value
$134.21
PnL
+$2
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.6K
soswald1
Up — $930.01
asdcaxz
Up — $613.71
Bonereaper
Up — $599.47
blue.birds
Up — $509.68
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $481.41
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $449.05