Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Up 73%
11 arb excluded
$25.6K
$-4.1K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 51 top traders (73%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.6K | -$29.15 | 55% 377-309 (686) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | +$197.61 | 40% 215-327 (542) |
AL almach | Upavg 98.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.4K | -$480.49 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 69.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.4K | -$360.04 | 46% 944-1097 (2041) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 59.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$52.21 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 41.8¢ | $983.09 | $1.3K | +$320.1 | 44% 687-878 (1565) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 60.6¢ | $1.0K | $961.69 | -$82.86 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $775.16 | $903.19 | +$128.04 | 31% 634-1415 (2049) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $892.84 | +$16.8 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 43.9¢ | $591.77 | — | -$591.77 | 46% 735-869 (1604) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 47.9¢ | $964.94 | — | -$955.82 | 60% 967-652 (1619) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 38.9¢ | $527.06 | — | -$428.15 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 35.8¢ | $344.12 | $581.11 | +$236.99 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.5¢ | $135.8 | — | -$135.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.8¢ | $208.32 | $581.11 | +$372.79 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.4¢ | $610.45 | — | -$479.79 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 42.8¢ | $272.61 | — | -$223.61 | 53% 4489-3914 (8403) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 63.1¢ | $323.89 | — | -$303.32 | 40% 704-1076 (1780) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 40.4¢ | $170.53 | $247.41 | +$76.88 | 47% 1973-2229 (4202) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 98¢ | $935.72 | $223.89 | -$246.37 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 64.9¢ | $471.27 | — | -$471.27 | 46% 1003-1184 (2187) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 27.8¢ | $78.98 | $252.77 | +$173.79 | 50% 1805-1780 (3585) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 68¢ | $186.63 | $241.86 | +$55.24 | 48% 1156-1258 (2414) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 65.6¢ | $865.17 | $280.7 | -$122.28 | 51% 4567-4423 (8990) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 86.6¢ | $164.09 | — | -$165.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.6¢ | $184.28 | $280.7 | +$43.31 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 39.3¢ | $242.06 | — | -$224.73 | 52% 813-760 (1573) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $169.09 | $226.83 | +$57.74 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $85.4 | — | -$85.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.9¢ | $83.69 | $226.83 | +$143.14 | |
 ohioismCTR | Downavg 46.7¢ | $134.87 | — | -$134.87 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
Invested
$8,753
Value
$7.6K
PnL
-$29.15
Record
55%
377-309 (686)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$197.61
Record
40%
215-327 (542)
Invested
$1,936.19
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$480.49
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
Invested
$1,765.69
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$360.04
Record
46%
944-1097 (2041)
Invested
$1,464.77
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$52.21
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$983.09
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$320.1
Record
44%
687-878 (1565)
Invested
$1,046.37
Value
$961.69
PnL
-$82.86
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Invested
$775.16
Value
$903.19
PnL
+$128.04
Record
31%
634-1415 (2049)
Invested
$950
Value
$892.84
PnL
+$16.8
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
Invested
$591.77
Value
—
PnL
-$591.77
Record
46%
735-869 (1604)
Invested
$964.94
Value
—
PnL
-$955.82
Record
60%
967-652 (1619)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$527.06
Value
—
PnL
-$428.15
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$344.12
Value
$581.11
PnL
+$236.99
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Both legs:
Invested
$610.45
Value
—
PnL
-$479.79
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$272.61
Value
—
PnL
-$223.61
Record
53%
4489-3914 (8403)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$323.89
Value
—
PnL
-$303.32
Record
40%
704-1076 (1780)
Invested
$170.53
Value
$247.41
PnL
+$76.88
Record
47%
1973-2229 (4202)
Invested
$935.72
Value
$223.89
PnL
-$246.37
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$471.27
Value
—
PnL
-$471.27
Record
46%
1003-1184 (2187)
Invested
$78.98
Value
$252.77
PnL
+$173.79
Record
50%
1805-1780 (3585)
Invested
$186.63
Value
$241.86
PnL
+$55.24
Record
48%
1156-1258 (2414)
Invested
$865.17
Value
$280.7
PnL
-$122.28
Record
51%
4567-4423 (8990)
Both legs:
Invested
$242.06
Value
—
PnL
-$224.73
Record
52%
813-760 (1573)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$169.09
Value
$226.83
PnL
+$57.74
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
Both legs:
ohioismCTRInvested
$134.87
Value
—
PnL
-$134.87
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.6K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.7K
almach
Up — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.4K
blue.birds
Up — $1.4K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.3K
stepahead
Up — $961.69
ply-pm0
Up — $903.19
soswald1
Up — $892.84
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0