Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 82%
5 arb excluded
$12.4K
$-3.9K
Smart Money Signal
45 of 55 top traders (82%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 40% 215-327 (542) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$16.56 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$1.02 | 51% 1315-1249 (2564) |
AL almach | Downavg 76.5¢ | $743.62 | $971.27 | +$227.66 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $925 | -$3.3 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $462.5 | $925 | +$462.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $457.5 | — | -$465.85 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 68.2¢ | $579.78 | $790.72 | +$210.94 | 46% 944-1097 (2041) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 73.6¢ | $742.96 | $678.4 | -$26.34 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $606.84 | $612.97 | +$6.13 | 99% 791-7 (798) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $543.79 | $531.04 | -$12.76 | 44% 687-878 (1565) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.6¢ | $311.11 | $531.04 | +$219.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.7¢ | $232.69 | — | -$232.69 | |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 62.5¢ | $419.05 | $570.85 | +$151.8 | 60% 967-652 (1619) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $561.93 | $497.24 | +$4.28 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.8¢ | $257.56 | $497.24 | +$252.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $242.65 | — | -$247.84 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 70.4¢ | $278.12 | $394.93 | +$116.81 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Upavg 34.5¢ | $345.85 | $316.46 | -$29.39 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.1¢ | $171.12 | $316.46 | +$145.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.5¢ | $174.73 | — | -$174.73 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 67.7¢ | $338.29 | $336.41 | +$3 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 53.5¢ | $268.93 | $309.34 | +$40.41 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $294.03 | — | -$294.03 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 48.4¢ | $198.52 | $259.41 | +$60.89 | 46% 735-869 (1604) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 40.2¢ | $140.04 | $264.33 | +$124.29 | 46% 1003-1184 (2187) |
BO bosona | Downavg 72.9¢ | $206.9 | $211.3 | +$4.4 | 51% 4567-4423 (8990) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 54.3¢ | $109.31 | $201.21 | +$91.9 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 61.3¢ | $138.15 | $185 | +$46.85 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 59.6¢ | $123.09 | $147 | +$28.95 | 50% 705-700 (1405) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $128.26 | $139.07 | +$10.81 | 31% 634-1415 (2049) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 87.4¢ | $122.38 | $140 | +$17.62 | 52% 2502-2335 (4837) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $160.25 | $126.36 | -$32.39 | 55% 377-309 (686) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
40%
215-327 (542)
Invested
$1,327.44
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$16.56
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
Invested
$1,022.06
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$1.02
Record
51%
1315-1249 (2564)
Invested
$743.62
Value
$971.27
PnL
+$227.66
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
Invested
$950
Value
$925
PnL
-$3.3
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
Both legs:
Invested
$579.78
Value
$790.72
PnL
+$210.94
Record
46%
944-1097 (2041)
Invested
$742.96
Value
$678.4
PnL
-$26.34
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$606.84
Value
$612.97
PnL
+$6.13
Record
99%
791-7 (798)
Invested
$543.79
Value
$531.04
PnL
-$12.76
Record
44%
687-878 (1565)
Both legs:
Invested
$419.05
Value
$570.85
PnL
+$151.8
Record
60%
967-652 (1619)
Invested
$561.93
Value
$497.24
PnL
+$4.28
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Both legs:
Invested
$278.12
Value
$394.93
PnL
+$116.81
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
Invested
$345.85
Value
$316.46
PnL
-$29.39
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$338.29
Value
$336.41
PnL
+$3
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$268.93
Value
$309.34
PnL
+$40.41
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Invested
$294.03
Value
—
PnL
-$294.03
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
Invested
$198.52
Value
$259.41
PnL
+$60.89
Record
46%
735-869 (1604)
machinelearnedInvested
$140.04
Value
$264.33
PnL
+$124.29
Record
46%
1003-1184 (2187)
Invested
$206.9
Value
$211.3
PnL
+$4.4
Record
51%
4567-4423 (8990)
Invested
$109.31
Value
$201.21
PnL
+$91.9
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$138.15
Value
$185
PnL
+$46.85
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
OhioAIInvested
$123.09
Value
$147
PnL
+$28.95
Record
50%
705-700 (1405)
Invested
$128.26
Value
$139.07
PnL
+$10.81
Record
31%
634-1415 (2049)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$122.38
Value
$140
PnL
+$17.62
Record
52%
2502-2335 (4837)
Invested
$160.25
Value
$126.36
PnL
-$32.39
Record
55%
377-309 (686)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
0x50f7
Down — $1.0K
almach
Down — $971.27
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Down — $790.72
asdcaxz
Down — $678.4
THG.
Down — $612.97
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Down — $570.85