Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Down 66%
1 arb excluded
$11.9K
$-4.8K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 59 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.3K | 40% 215-327 (542) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 59.8¢ | $956.38 | $966.48 | +$10.1 | 46% 944-1097 (2041) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$904.46 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 42.9¢ | $680.85 | $863.07 | +$193.01 | 60% 967-652 (1619) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 32.6¢ | $471.19 | $722 | +$250.82 | 46% 1003-1184 (2187) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 51.5¢ | $676.47 | $703.71 | +$27.25 | 44% 687-878 (1565) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 48.9¢ | $616.37 | $720.7 | +$104.33 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 61.8¢ | $691.71 | $659.88 | -$31.83 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 51.9¢ | $526.7 | $578.47 | +$51.78 | 46% 735-869 (1604) |
AL almach | Downavg 77.4¢ | $1.3K | $622.21 | -$73.78 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $571.48 | $480.76 | +$2.73 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99¢ | $476.83 | $481.65 | +$4.82 | 48% 1394-1507 (2901) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 68.5¢ | $442.72 | $454.76 | +$12.04 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 65.4¢ | $960.2 | $627.42 | +$135.33 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 63.9¢ | $459.98 | $447.77 | -$12.21 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 57.8¢ | $375.33 | $401.77 | +$26.44 | 31% 634-1415 (2049) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91¢ | $902.91 | $400 | -$191.31 | 51% 4567-4423 (8990) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 42.7¢ | $480.74 | — | -$459.68 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 59.4¢ | $309.71 | $309.79 | +$0.08 | 53% 4489-3914 (8403) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 43.5¢ | $128.22 | $294.61 | +$166.39 | 52% 813-760 (1573) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 68.4¢ | $245.76 | $287.14 | +$41.38 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 87.1¢ | $281.4 | $273.09 | -$8.3 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
 ohioism | Downavg 73.9¢ | $238.36 | $215.9 | -$15.21 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 77.5¢ | $205.33 | $200 | -$5.33 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $123.36 | $128.74 | +$5.37 | 47% 2017-2278 (4295) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.4¢ | $81.62 | $128.74 | +$47.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.1¢ | $41.75 | — | -$41.75 |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
40%
215-327 (542)
Invested
$956.38
Value
$966.48
PnL
+$10.1
Record
46%
944-1097 (2041)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$904.46
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
Invested
$680.85
Value
$863.07
PnL
+$193.01
Record
60%
967-652 (1619)
machinelearnedInvested
$471.19
Value
$722
PnL
+$250.82
Record
46%
1003-1184 (2187)
Invested
$676.47
Value
$703.71
PnL
+$27.25
Record
44%
687-878 (1565)
Invested
$616.37
Value
$720.7
PnL
+$104.33
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Invested
$691.71
Value
$659.88
PnL
-$31.83
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
Invested
$526.7
Value
$578.47
PnL
+$51.78
Record
46%
735-869 (1604)
Invested
$1,314.85
Value
$622.21
PnL
-$73.78
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
Invested
$571.48
Value
$480.76
PnL
+$2.73
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$476.83
Value
$481.65
PnL
+$4.82
Record
48%
1394-1507 (2901)
Invested
$442.72
Value
$454.76
PnL
+$12.04
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$960.2
Value
$627.42
PnL
+$135.33
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$459.98
Value
$447.77
PnL
-$12.21
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$375.33
Value
$401.77
PnL
+$26.44
Record
31%
634-1415 (2049)
Invested
$902.91
Value
$400
PnL
-$191.31
Record
51%
4567-4423 (8990)
Invested
$480.74
Value
—
PnL
-$459.68
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
FairValueMachineInvested
$309.71
Value
$309.79
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
4489-3914 (8403)
Invested
$128.22
Value
$294.61
PnL
+$166.39
Record
52%
813-760 (1573)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$245.76
Value
$287.14
PnL
+$41.38
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
BoneOhioInvested
$281.4
Value
$273.09
PnL
-$8.3
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
ohioismInvested
$238.36
Value
$215.9
PnL
-$15.21
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
Invested
$205.33
Value
$200
PnL
-$5.33
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$123.36
Value
$128.74
PnL
+$5.37
Record
47%
2017-2278 (4295)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $966.48
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $863.07
machinelearned
Down — $722
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $703.71
stepahead
Down — $720.7
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $659.88
GoodFallen
Down — $578.47
almach
Down — $622.21