Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Down 63%
3 arb excluded
$23.4K
$-5.4K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 59 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $7.3K | $7.3K | +$73.46 | 51% 1315-1249 (2564) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.0K | 40% 215-327 (542) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$15.18 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 45.4¢ | $888.73 | $1.4K | +$583.12 | 60% 967-652 (1619) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 44.8¢ | $961.01 | $1.2K | +$196.67 | 31% 634-1415 (2049) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$202.23 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99¢ | $990 | $1.0K | +$10 | 48% 1394-1507 (2901) |
AL almach | Downavg 70.2¢ | $750.92 | $932.9 | +$181.98 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 64.1¢ | $763.61 | $924.83 | +$161.22 | 46% 944-1097 (2041) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $978.85 | $911.96 | -$66.89 | 50% 1805-1780 (3585) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 23.4¢ | $348.88 | $912.04 | +$563.15 | 46% 1003-1184 (2187) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$882.28 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 55.8¢ | $599.02 | $880.59 | +$281.56 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 52.2¢ | $749.11 | — | -$749.11 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 58.8¢ | $551.75 | $626.07 | +$74.31 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
BO bosona | Downavg 71.8¢ | $1.3K | $551.69 | -$53.41 | 51% 4567-4423 (8990) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.1¢ | $559.96 | — | -$485.57 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 46.5¢ | $616.76 | — | -$589.46 | 44% 687-878 (1565) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 55.4¢ | $249.5 | $449.99 | +$200.5 | 51% 916-874 (1790) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 48.4¢ | $397.96 | — | -$397.96 | 46% 735-869 (1604) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.2¢ | $553.48 | $437.39 | -$7.9 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 56.5¢ | $308.2 | $338.27 | +$30.07 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 45.5¢ | $197.56 | $332.14 | +$134.58 | 53% 4489-3914 (8403) |
SU suntori | Downavg 20.8¢ | $92.47 | $252.3 | +$204.18 | 46% 2602-3088 (5690) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $210.78 | $195.95 | -$14.83 | 50% 705-700 (1405) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $98.08 | $195.95 | +$97.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.9¢ | $112.71 | — | -$112.71 |
Invested
$7,272.56
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$73.46
Record
51%
1315-1249 (2564)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
40%
215-327 (542)
Invested
$1,503.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15.18
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
Invested
$888.73
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$583.12
Record
60%
967-652 (1619)
Invested
$961.01
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$196.67
Record
31%
634-1415 (2049)
Invested
$1,391.81
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$202.23
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$990
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10
Record
48%
1394-1507 (2901)
Invested
$750.92
Value
$932.9
PnL
+$181.98
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
Invested
$763.61
Value
$924.83
PnL
+$161.22
Record
46%
944-1097 (2041)
Invested
$978.85
Value
$911.96
PnL
-$66.89
Record
50%
1805-1780 (3585)
machinelearnedInvested
$348.88
Value
$912.04
PnL
+$563.15
Record
46%
1003-1184 (2187)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$882.28
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
Invested
$599.02
Value
$880.59
PnL
+$281.56
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
Invested
$749.11
Value
—
PnL
-$749.11
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
Invested
$551.75
Value
$626.07
PnL
+$74.31
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Invested
$1,323.61
Value
$551.69
PnL
-$53.41
Record
51%
4567-4423 (8990)
Invested
$559.96
Value
—
PnL
-$485.57
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Invested
$616.76
Value
—
PnL
-$589.46
Record
44%
687-878 (1565)
Invested
$249.5
Value
$449.99
PnL
+$200.5
Record
51%
916-874 (1790)
Invested
$397.96
Value
—
PnL
-$397.96
Record
46%
735-869 (1604)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$553.48
Value
$437.39
PnL
-$7.9
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$308.2
Value
$338.27
PnL
+$30.07
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
FairValueMachineInvested
$197.56
Value
$332.14
PnL
+$134.58
Record
53%
4489-3914 (8403)
Invested
$92.47
Value
$252.3
PnL
+$204.18
Record
46%
2602-3088 (5690)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$210.78
Value
$195.95
PnL
-$14.83
Record
50%
705-700 (1405)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $7.3K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.4K
ply-pm0
Down — $1.2K
blue.birds
Down — $1.1K
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $1.0K
almach
Down — $932.9
CrouchPredictions
Down — $924.83
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $911.96