Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.8K

Combined PnL

$485.59

Smart Money Signal

Down

43 of 55 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down43 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares18,609

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,778

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$64.74	40% 215-327 (542)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 49.9¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$748.47	60% 967-652 (1619)
MO mo-money	Downavg 72.6¢	$723.68	$997.39	+$273.71	49% 1297-1335 (2632)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 51.9¢	$923.93	$928.89	+$4.96	44% 687-878 (1565)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 48.2¢	$447.6	$928.4	+$480.8	50% 2116-2116 (4232)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$846.12	-$32.39	51% 3170-3070 (6240)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$423.06	$846.12	+$425.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$455	—	-$458.1
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 61.3¢	$755.03	$735.81	-$14.41	49% 4271-4363 (8634)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 57.6¢	$814.07	$719.62	-$76.89	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 46.3¢	$586.65	—	-$586.65	50% 1805-1780 (3585)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 43.6¢	$643.49	$714.01	+$118.02	31% 634-1415 (2049)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 60.2¢	$597.34	$679.78	+$82.44	46% 944-1097 (2041)
ST stepahead	Downavg 51.9¢	$618.58	$693.03	+$74.45	55% 4334-3556 (7890)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 70.3¢	$746.22	$559.5	-$125.18	52% 4903-4599 (9502)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 61.7¢	$489.36	$500.76	+$11.4	52% 2098-1948 (4046)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.3¢	$617.77	—	-$469.92	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 55.3¢	$346.61	$383.89	+$37.28	53% 4489-3914 (8403)
machinelearned	Downavg 35.3¢	$171.86	$364.94	+$193.09	46% 1003-1184 (2187)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 62.5¢	$273.33	$356.99	+$87.26	40% 704-1076 (1780)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 35.7¢	$480.4	—	-$430.1	46% 735-869 (1604)
BO bosona	Downavg 94.1¢	$408.05	$268.86	-$139.19	51% 4567-4423 (8990)
PA Papeasy	Downavg 71.9¢	$208.12	$244.73	+$36.61	50% 3798-3742 (7540)
OhioAI	Downavg 57.7¢	$202.15	$221.2	+$22.05	50% 705-700 (1405)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 59.2¢	$136.32	$186.62	+$67.1	52% 813-760 (1573)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 47.2¢	$139.25	$169.65	+$30.39	47% 2017-2278 (4295)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 59.2¢	$171.97	$168.58	-$3.39	60% 907-614 (1521)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$64.74

Record

40%

215-327 (542)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,264.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$748.47

Record

60%

967-652 (1619)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$723.68

Value

$997.39

PnL

+$273.71

Record

49%

1297-1335 (2632)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$923.93

Value

$928.89

PnL

+$4.96

Record

44%

687-878 (1565)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$447.6

Value

$928.4

PnL

+$480.8

Record

50%

2116-2116 (4232)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$846.12

PnL

-$32.39

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

Both legs:

Down$423.0650¢+$425.71

Up$45550¢-$458.1

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$755.03

Value

$735.81

PnL

-$14.41

Record

49%

4271-4363 (8634)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$814.07

Value

$719.62

PnL

-$76.89

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$586.65

Value

—

PnL

-$586.65

Record

50%

1805-1780 (3585)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$643.49

Value

$714.01

PnL

+$118.02

Record

31%

634-1415 (2049)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$597.34

Value

$679.78

PnL

+$82.44

Record

46%

944-1097 (2041)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$618.58

Value

$693.03

PnL

+$74.45

Record

55%

4334-3556 (7890)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$746.22

Value

$559.5

PnL

-$125.18

Record

52%

4903-4599 (9502)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$489.36

Value

$500.76

PnL

+$11.4

Record

52%

2098-1948 (4046)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$617.77

Value

—

PnL

-$469.92

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$346.61

Value

$383.89

PnL

+$37.28

Record

53%

4489-3914 (8403)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$171.86

Value

$364.94

PnL

+$193.09

Record

46%

1003-1184 (2187)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$273.33

Value

$356.99

PnL

+$87.26

Record

40%

704-1076 (1780)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$480.4

Value

—

PnL

-$430.1

Record

46%

735-869 (1604)

bosona

Down

Invested

$408.05

Value

$268.86

PnL

-$139.19

Record

51%

4567-4423 (8990)

Papeasy

Down

Invested

$208.12

Value

$244.73

PnL

+$36.61

Record

50%

3798-3742 (7540)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$202.15

Value

$221.2

PnL

+$22.05

Record

50%

705-700 (1405)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$136.32

Value

$186.62

PnL

+$67.1

Record

52%

813-760 (1573)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$139.25

Value

$169.65

PnL

+$30.39

Record

47%

2017-2278 (4295)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$171.97

Value

$168.58

PnL

-$3.39

Record

60%

907-614 (1521)

Smart Money Signal

Down

43 of 55 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x547ec5e2...f165d8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794661500

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

+$64.74

Bonereaper

Down — $2.0K

+$748.47

mo-money

Down — $997.39

+$273.71

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $928.89

+$4.96

uninformedfloww

Down — $928.4

+$480.8

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$32.39

asdcaxz

Down — $735.81

-$14.41

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $719.62

-$76.89

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$586.65

ply-pm0

Down — $714.01

+$118.02

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