Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Down 61%
6 arb excluded
$13.2K
$-4.3K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 51 top traders (61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-3.9K | 40% 215-327 (542) |
TH THG. | Downavg 98.3¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$56.46 | 99% 791-7 (798) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 39.1¢ | $405.98 | $615.31 | +$209.33 | 46% 944-1097 (2041) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $711.1 | $527.51 | -$183.59 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.6¢ | $324.86 | $527.51 | +$202.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.1¢ | $386.24 | — | -$386.24 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 27.5¢ | $139.2 | $506.35 | +$367.15 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $614.72 | $498.47 | +$7.58 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 64.6¢ | $264.8 | $410 | +$145.2 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 45.6¢ | $335.34 | $407.18 | +$71.83 | 60% 967-652 (1619) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 51.2¢ | $337.01 | $381.99 | +$44.98 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 53.5¢ | $416.49 | $379.66 | -$10.74 | 44% 687-878 (1565) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 54.2¢ | $264.83 | $385.02 | +$120.19 | 46% 735-869 (1604) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 47¢ | $323.57 | $349.34 | +$25.76 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 65.9¢ | $773.53 | — | -$773.53 | 51% 4567-4423 (8990) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 39.8¢ | $252.14 | $258.17 | +$6.03 | 31% 634-1415 (2049) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.8¢ | $123.35 | $258.17 | +$134.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.8¢ | $128.79 | — | -$128.79 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 54.3¢ | $170.13 | $272.72 | +$102.59 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 63.3¢ | $298.17 | $252.06 | -$46.11 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 57.3¢ | $248.54 | $235.36 | -$13.18 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 9.3¢ | $180.48 | $157.32 | -$23.16 | 46% 1003-1184 (2187) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.9¢ | $47.1 | $157.32 | +$110.21 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 9.3¢ | $133.37 | — | -$133.37 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $147.4 | $148.89 | +$1.49 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 50.4¢ | $97.23 | $137.6 | +$40.37 | 50% 705-700 (1405) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 47.3¢ | $57.87 | $122.45 | +$64.58 | 45% 650-781 (1431) |
SU suntori | Downavg 80¢ | $89.71 | $112.14 | +$22.43 | 46% 2602-3088 (5690) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 48.6¢ | $409.23 | — | -$409.23 | 50% 1805-1780 (3585) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 58.3¢ | $51.34 | $88.04 | +$36.7 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.9K
Record
40%
215-327 (542)
Invested
$3,274.54
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$56.46
Record
99%
791-7 (798)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
Invested
$405.98
Value
$615.31
PnL
+$209.33
Record
46%
944-1097 (2041)
Invested
$711.1
Value
$527.51
PnL
-$183.59
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
Both legs:
Invested
$139.2
Value
$506.35
PnL
+$367.15
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
Invested
$614.72
Value
$498.47
PnL
+$7.58
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Invested
$264.8
Value
$410
PnL
+$145.2
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$335.34
Value
$407.18
PnL
+$71.83
Record
60%
967-652 (1619)
Invested
$337.01
Value
$381.99
PnL
+$44.98
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Invested
$416.49
Value
$379.66
PnL
-$10.74
Record
44%
687-878 (1565)
Invested
$264.83
Value
$385.02
PnL
+$120.19
Record
46%
735-869 (1604)
Invested
$323.57
Value
$349.34
PnL
+$25.76
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$773.53
Value
—
PnL
-$773.53
Record
51%
4567-4423 (8990)
Invested
$252.14
Value
$258.17
PnL
+$6.03
Record
31%
634-1415 (2049)
Both legs:
Invested
$170.13
Value
$272.72
PnL
+$102.59
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$298.17
Value
$252.06
PnL
-$46.11
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$248.54
Value
$235.36
PnL
-$13.18
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$180.48
Value
$157.32
PnL
-$23.16
Record
46%
1003-1184 (2187)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.4
Value
$148.89
PnL
+$1.49
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
OhioAIInvested
$97.23
Value
$137.6
PnL
+$40.37
Record
50%
705-700 (1405)
Invested
$57.87
Value
$122.45
PnL
+$64.58
Record
45%
650-781 (1431)
Invested
$89.71
Value
$112.14
PnL
+$22.43
Record
46%
2602-3088 (5690)
Invested
$409.23
Value
—
PnL
-$409.23
Record
50%
1805-1780 (3585)
Invested
$51.34
Value
$88.04
PnL
+$36.7
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.3K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $615.31
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $506.35
ByteBadger92
Down — $498.47
asdcaxz
Down — $410
Bonereaper
Down — $407.18
stepahead
Down — $381.99