Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Down 59%
3 arb excluded
$15.6K
-$550.1
Smart Money Signal
30 of 51 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$5.44 | 40% 215-327 (542) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | -$2.5 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 98.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$33.14 | 51% 1315-1249 (2564) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $565.21 | $486.46 | -$3.3 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.2¢ | $248.92 | $486.46 | +$249.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.9¢ | $245.29 | — | -$252.64 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67.4¢ | $430.14 | $463.97 | +$33.83 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
AL almach | Downavg 64.4¢ | $449.98 | $670.95 | +$220.97 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 65.3¢ | $375.72 | $372.82 | -$2.9 | 46% 1003-1184 (2187) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 64.7¢ | $337.96 | $359.09 | +$21.13 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 33.5¢ | $298.57 | — | -$298.57 | 60% 967-652 (1619) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 31¢ | $257.81 | — | -$257.81 | 44% 687-878 (1565) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 66.4¢ | $240.79 | $362.56 | +$121.77 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 76.5¢ | $162.76 | $156.94 | -$5.82 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 77.2¢ | $133.64 | $140 | +$10.36 | 40% 704-1076 (1780) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 34.5¢ | $190.09 | — | -$190.09 | 46% 735-869 (1604) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 93.2¢ | $123.22 | $92.1 | -$31.12 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $78.4 | $94.94 | +$16.54 | 47% 2017-2278 (4295) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $85.99 | $89.99 | +$4 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $74.43 | $89.99 | +$15.57 | 52% 2502-2335 (4837) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $91.98 | $79.98 | -$12 | 60% 907-614 (1521) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 29.5¢ | $74.75 | $45 | -$29.75 | 53% 4489-3914 (8403) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.5¢ | $38.4 | — | -$38.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.8¢ | $36.35 | $45 | +$8.65 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $57.7 | $63.77 | +$6.07 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.3¢ | $48.38 | — | -$48.38 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 71.2¢ | $60.68 | $69 | +$8.32 | 50% 705-700 (1405) |
 NIULAI4ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $49.52 | $58.62 | +$9.11 | 27% 447-1228 (1675) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.6¢ | $37.31 | $58.62 | +$21.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.7¢ | $12.2 | — | -$12.2 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 59.9¢ | $56.88 | $82 | +$25.12 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$5.44
Record
40%
215-327 (542)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,502.5
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$2.5
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
Invested
$2,974.87
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$33.14
Record
51%
1315-1249 (2564)
Invested
$565.21
Value
$486.46
PnL
-$3.3
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Both legs:
Invested
$430.14
Value
$463.97
PnL
+$33.83
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Invested
$449.98
Value
$670.95
PnL
+$220.97
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
machinelearnedInvested
$375.72
Value
$372.82
PnL
-$2.9
Record
46%
1003-1184 (2187)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$337.96
Value
$359.09
PnL
+$21.13
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$298.57
Value
—
PnL
-$298.57
Record
60%
967-652 (1619)
Invested
$257.81
Value
—
PnL
-$257.81
Record
44%
687-878 (1565)
Invested
$240.79
Value
$362.56
PnL
+$121.77
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
Invested
$162.76
Value
$156.94
PnL
-$5.82
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$133.64
Value
$140
PnL
+$10.36
Record
40%
704-1076 (1780)
Invested
$190.09
Value
—
PnL
-$190.09
Record
46%
735-869 (1604)
Invested
$123.22
Value
$92.1
PnL
-$31.12
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$78.4
Value
$94.94
PnL
+$16.54
Record
47%
2017-2278 (4295)
Invested
$85.99
Value
$89.99
PnL
+$4
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$74.43
Value
$89.99
PnL
+$15.57
Record
52%
2502-2335 (4837)
Invested
$91.98
Value
$79.98
PnL
-$12
Record
60%
907-614 (1521)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$74.75
Value
$45
PnL
-$29.75
Record
53%
4489-3914 (8403)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.7
Value
$63.77
PnL
+$6.07
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$48.38
Value
—
PnL
-$48.38
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$60.68
Value
$69
PnL
+$8.32
Record
50%
705-700 (1405)
NIULAI4ARB<$100Invested
$49.52
Value
$58.62
PnL
+$9.11
Record
27%
447-1228 (1675)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.88
Value
$82
PnL
+$25.12
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $463.97
almach
Down — $670.95
machinelearned
Down — $372.82
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $359.09
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0