Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Up 69%
4 arb excluded
$10.6K
$-5.2K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 51 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 40% 215-327 (542) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$33.28 | 99% 791-7 (798) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 97.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$55.61 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 55.5¢ | $631.08 | $650.5 | +$19.42 | 55% 4334-3556 (7890) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $540.57 | $495.01 | -$7.77 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
BO bosona | Upavg 63.7¢ | $318.6 | $500.46 | +$181.86 | 51% 4567-4423 (8990) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $466.97 | $308.76 | -$158.2 | 60% 967-652 (1619) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.6¢ | $187.18 | $308.76 | +$121.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.6¢ | $279.78 | — | -$279.78 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 84.2¢ | $354.14 | $349.89 | -$4.25 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 75.2¢ | $338.96 | $318.42 | -$20.54 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 81.3¢ | $273.09 | $300.99 | +$27.9 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $277.81 | $272.17 | -$5.64 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 69.7¢ | $493.02 | — | -$493.02 | 46% 1003-1184 (2187) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 35.9¢ | $320.98 | — | -$320.98 | 46% 944-1097 (2041) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 84¢ | $206 | $245.24 | +$39.24 | 49% 1297-1335 (2632) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 44.2¢ | $125.79 | $156.97 | +$31.18 | 44% 687-878 (1565) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.2¢ | $69.33 | $156.97 | +$87.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.2¢ | $56.46 | — | -$56.46 | |
AL almach | Upavg 93.8¢ | $140.56 | $124.58 | -$15.98 | 50% 1311-1307 (2618) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 76.7¢ | $127.33 | $115 | -$12.33 | 59% 921-627 (1548) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 80.6¢ | $126.2 | $93.3 | -$32.9 | 59% 905-631 (1536) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 44.2¢ | $87.71 | — | -$87.71 | 51% 916-874 (1790) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79.4¢ | $96.61 | $90.58 | -$3.15 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 39.9¢ | $49.49 | $68.6 | +$19.11 | 46% 735-869 (1604) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.9¢ | $27.35 | $68.6 | +$41.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.1¢ | $22.15 | — | -$22.15 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.5¢ | $54.91 | — | -$54.91 | 51% 720-704 (1424) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $49.39 | $70 | +$20.61 | 47% 2017-2278 (4295) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $52.71 | $67 | +$1.65 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 72.6¢ | $48.05 | $66.15 | +$18.1 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
40%
215-327 (542)
Invested
$3,294.72
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$33.28
Record
99%
791-7 (798)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,305.79
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$55.61
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
Invested
$631.08
Value
$650.5
PnL
+$19.42
Record
55%
4334-3556 (7890)
Invested
$540.57
Value
$495.01
PnL
-$7.77
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Invested
$318.6
Value
$500.46
PnL
+$181.86
Record
51%
4567-4423 (8990)
Invested
$466.97
Value
$308.76
PnL
-$158.2
Record
60%
967-652 (1619)
Both legs:
Invested
$354.14
Value
$349.89
PnL
-$4.25
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$338.96
Value
$318.42
PnL
-$20.54
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
Invested
$273.09
Value
$300.99
PnL
+$27.9
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$277.81
Value
$272.17
PnL
-$5.64
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$493.02
Value
—
PnL
-$493.02
Record
46%
1003-1184 (2187)
Invested
$320.98
Value
—
PnL
-$320.98
Record
46%
944-1097 (2041)
Invested
$206
Value
$245.24
PnL
+$39.24
Record
49%
1297-1335 (2632)
Invested
$125.79
Value
$156.97
PnL
+$31.18
Record
44%
687-878 (1565)
Both legs:
Invested
$140.56
Value
$124.58
PnL
-$15.98
Record
50%
1311-1307 (2618)
Invested
$127.33
Value
$115
PnL
-$12.33
Record
59%
921-627 (1548)
Invested
$126.2
Value
$93.3
PnL
-$32.9
Record
59%
905-631 (1536)
Invested
$87.71
Value
—
PnL
-$87.71
Record
51%
916-874 (1790)
Invested
$96.61
Value
$90.58
PnL
-$3.15
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$49.49
Value
$68.6
PnL
+$19.11
Record
46%
735-869 (1604)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.91
Value
—
PnL
-$54.91
Record
51%
720-704 (1424)
Invested
$49.39
Value
$70
PnL
+$20.61
Record
47%
2017-2278 (4295)
Invested
$52.71
Value
$67
PnL
+$1.65
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$48.05
Value
$66.15
PnL
+$18.1
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.3K
BoneOhio
Up — $2.4K
stepahead
Up — $650.5
ByteBadger92
Up — $495.01
bosona
Up — $500.46
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Up — $349.89
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $318.42
blue.birds
Up — $300.99