Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$11.6K
-$963.66
Smart Money Signal
32 of 48 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$36.96 | 40% 210-321 (531) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$33.24 | 99% 786-7 (793) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 87¢ | $508.7 | $522.32 | +$13.62 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.7¢ | $529.14 | — | -$488.37 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 73.4¢ | $390.8 | $366.18 | -$19.3 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 82.8¢ | $287.98 | $245.27 | -$42.71 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $149.94 | $184 | +$34.06 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.5¢ | $67.15 | $184 | +$116.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14¢ | $82.79 | — | -$82.79 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 57.8¢ | $227.01 | $229.53 | +$2.52 | 51% 2975-2913 (5888) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 48.8¢ | $208.47 | $215.46 | +$6.99 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 31.1¢ | $177.87 | — | -$177.87 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 74.5¢ | $237.06 | $167.73 | -$41.55 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 47.2¢ | $93.78 | $161.21 | +$71.92 | 53% 4483-3909 (8392) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 34.7¢ | $181.55 | — | -$181.55 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
BO bosona | Downavg 80.4¢ | $143.83 | $144.15 | +$0.32 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 88.9¢ | $104.12 | $117.15 | +$13.04 | 49% 1289-1328 (2617) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 90.6¢ | $131.53 | $100 | -$31.53 | 59% 914-623 (1537) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 83.1¢ | $82.62 | $99.45 | +$16.83 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 93.3¢ | $90.12 | $90.9 | +$0.78 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $85.69 | $82.45 | -$2.61 | 52% 807-755 (1562) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $32.9 | $70 | +$37.1 | 40% 700-1069 (1769) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $63.1 | $75 | +$11.9 | 48% 1943-2144 (4087) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $59.8 | $69.17 | +$47.2 | 46% 2583-3072 (5655) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $57.4 | $64 | +$6.6 | 51% 726-708 (1434) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Upavg 47.8¢ | $72.58 | — | -$72.58 | 50% 700-694 (1394) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 89.7¢ | $97.59 | $55.14 | -$42.46 | 46% 728-865 (1593) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$36.96
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$3,290.76
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$33.24
Record
99%
786-7 (793)
machinelearnedInvested
$508.7
Value
$522.32
PnL
+$13.62
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Invested
$529.14
Value
—
PnL
-$488.37
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$390.8
Value
$366.18
PnL
-$19.3
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
Invested
$287.98
Value
$245.27
PnL
-$42.71
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$149.94
Value
$184
PnL
+$34.06
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Both legs:
Invested
$227.01
Value
$229.53
PnL
+$2.52
Record
51%
2975-2913 (5888)
Invested
$208.47
Value
$215.46
PnL
+$6.99
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$177.87
Value
—
PnL
-$177.87
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
Invested
$237.06
Value
$167.73
PnL
-$41.55
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
FairValueMachineInvested
$93.78
Value
$161.21
PnL
+$71.92
Record
53%
4483-3909 (8392)
Invested
$181.55
Value
—
PnL
-$181.55
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
Invested
$143.83
Value
$144.15
PnL
+$0.32
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
Invested
$104.12
Value
$117.15
PnL
+$13.04
Record
49%
1289-1328 (2617)
Invested
$131.53
Value
$100
PnL
-$31.53
Record
59%
914-623 (1537)
Invested
$82.62
Value
$99.45
PnL
+$16.83
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$90.12
Value
$90.9
PnL
+$0.78
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Invested
$85.69
Value
$82.45
PnL
-$2.61
Record
52%
807-755 (1562)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$32.9
Value
$70
PnL
+$37.1
Record
40%
700-1069 (1769)
ohioism<$100Invested
$63.1
Value
$75
PnL
+$11.9
Record
48%
1943-2144 (4087)
Invested
$59.8
Value
$69.17
PnL
+$47.2
Record
46%
2583-3072 (5655)
Invested
$57.4
Value
$64
PnL
+$6.6
Record
51%
726-708 (1434)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$72.58
Value
—
PnL
-$72.58
Record
50%
700-694 (1394)
Invested
$97.59
Value
$55.14
PnL
-$42.46
Record
46%
728-865 (1593)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
THG.
Down — $3.3K
machinelearned
Down — $522.32
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $366.18
blue.birds
Down — $245.27
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $229.53
stepahead
Down — $215.46
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0