Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Up 65%
3 arb excluded
$16.2K
-$453.6
Smart Money Signal
33 of 51 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | +$47.47 | 40% 210-321 (531) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$33.21 | 99% 786-7 (793) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $1.9K | $1.5K | -$322.97 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 52.2¢ | $574.53 | $1.1K | +$526.37 | 50% 2099-2099 (4198) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 50.9¢ | $627.71 | $881.2 | +$259.19 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.1¢ | $654.94 | $641.11 | -$13.83 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79¢ | $594.61 | $580.57 | -$14.05 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 72¢ | $516.41 | $510.25 | -$6.16 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.8¢ | $555.17 | — | -$490.88 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 70.2¢ | $558.46 | $480.69 | -$12.31 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 72.6¢ | $436.56 | $423.38 | +$6.56 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
BO bosona | Upavg 79¢ | $279.32 | $345.04 | +$65.72 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 29.6¢ | $388.68 | — | -$388.68 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 59.8¢ | $255.29 | $254.1 | -$1.19 | 53% 4483-3909 (8392) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 61.5¢ | $324.55 | $177.75 | -$30.88 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 33.6¢ | $291.37 | $99.99 | -$191.37 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.6¢ | $203.37 | — | -$203.37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 88¢ | $87.99 | $99.99 | +$12 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 38.8¢ | $190.45 | $127.02 | -$63.44 | 46% 728-865 (1593) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.7¢ | $68.18 | $127.02 | +$58.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.8¢ | $122.27 | — | -$122.27 | |
AL almach | Upavg 83.1¢ | $125.05 | $140 | +$14.95 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 57¢ | $83 | $110 | +$27 | 40% 700-1069 (1769) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 48.5¢ | $92.03 | $103.84 | +$42.21 | 44% 1926-2494 (4420) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $44.31 | $84.86 | +$40.55 | 48% 1150-1249 (2399) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Upavg 69.1¢ | $83 | $67.99 | -$15 | 59% 897-628 (1525) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $43.44 | $61.51 | +$18.07 | 50% 727-717 (1444) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $57.48 | $53.64 | -$3.84 | 59% 914-623 (1537) |
PB PBot-6ARB<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $51.11 | $49.98 | -$1.14 | 50% 734-736 (1470) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52¢ | $28.12 | — | -$28.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46¢ | $22.99 | $49.98 | +$26.99 |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$47.47
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$3,287.79
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$33.21
Record
99%
786-7 (793)
Invested
$1,853.22
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$322.97
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$574.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$526.37
Record
50%
2099-2099 (4198)
Invested
$627.71
Value
$881.2
PnL
+$259.19
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
Invested
$654.94
Value
$641.11
PnL
-$13.83
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$594.61
Value
$580.57
PnL
-$14.05
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$516.41
Value
$510.25
PnL
-$6.16
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Invested
$555.17
Value
—
PnL
-$490.88
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$558.46
Value
$480.69
PnL
-$12.31
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
Invested
$436.56
Value
$423.38
PnL
+$6.56
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$279.32
Value
$345.04
PnL
+$65.72
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
Invested
$388.68
Value
—
PnL
-$388.68
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
FairValueMachineInvested
$255.29
Value
$254.1
PnL
-$1.19
Record
53%
4483-3909 (8392)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$324.55
Value
$177.75
PnL
-$30.88
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$291.37
Value
$99.99
PnL
-$191.37
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Both legs:
Invested
$190.45
Value
$127.02
PnL
-$63.44
Record
46%
728-865 (1593)
Both legs:
Invested
$125.05
Value
$140
PnL
+$14.95
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$83
Value
$110
PnL
+$27
Record
40%
700-1069 (1769)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$92.03
Value
$103.84
PnL
+$42.21
Record
44%
1926-2494 (4420)
Invested
$44.31
Value
$84.86
PnL
+$40.55
Record
48%
1150-1249 (2399)
Invested
$83
Value
$67.99
PnL
-$15
Record
59%
897-628 (1525)
Invested
$43.44
Value
$61.51
PnL
+$18.07
Record
50%
727-717 (1444)
Invested
$57.48
Value
$53.64
PnL
-$3.84
Record
59%
914-623 (1537)
Invested
$51.11
Value
$49.98
PnL
-$1.14
Record
50%
734-736 (1470)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.7K
THG.
Up — $3.3K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.5K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.1K
Bonereaper
Up — $881.2
stepahead
Up — $641.11
blue.birds
Up — $580.57
CrouchPredictions
Up — $510.25
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $480.69