Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 73%
$7.5K
$-3.9K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 55 top traders (73%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.2K | 40% 210-321 (531) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $938.89 | -$1.91 | 51% 3148-3049 (6197) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 39.2¢ | $332.47 | $821.65 | +$489.18 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69.4¢ | $624.87 | $648.08 | +$23.21 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $556.22 | $496.57 | -$2.07 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 39¢ | $338.68 | $494.76 | +$156.09 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
AL almach | Downavg 88¢ | $400.51 | $450.09 | +$49.58 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 73¢ | $294.65 | $368.67 | +$74.02 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 54.3¢ | $485.4 | — | -$485.4 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $282.88 | $279.14 | -$3.74 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 54¢ | $136.8 | $253.33 | +$116.53 | 50% 2099-2099 (4198) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 39.2¢ | $195.17 | $251.03 | +$60.41 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 27.2¢ | $277.84 | — | -$277.84 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 59.5¢ | $217.73 | — | -$217.73 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 92.9¢ | $187.31 | $175.6 | -$11.72 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 83.5¢ | $146.99 | $173.91 | +$26.92 | 49% 1289-1328 (2617) |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 42.8¢ | $154.13 | $359.81 | +$205.67 | 57% 213-160 (373) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 41.8¢ | $145.85 | $340.75 | +$194.9 | 50% 734-736 (1470) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $86.47 | $136.95 | +$50.49 | 51% 716-697 (1413) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 57.3¢ | $123.32 | $120 | -$3.32 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 54.8¢ | $69.62 | $119.85 | +$50.23 | 53% 4483-3909 (8392) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 41.3¢ | $104.78 | $253.44 | +$148.66 | 51% 909-867 (1776) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 31¢ | $138.67 | — | -$131.47 | 46% 728-865 (1593) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $56.39 | $101.31 | +$44.92 | 51% 726-708 (1434) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 91.3¢ | $83.43 | $85.33 | +$1.9 | 52% 793-743 (1536) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$950
Value
$938.89
PnL
-$1.91
Record
51%
3148-3049 (6197)
machinelearnedInvested
$332.47
Value
$821.65
PnL
+$489.18
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Invested
$624.87
Value
$648.08
PnL
+$23.21
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$556.22
Value
$496.57
PnL
-$2.07
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$338.68
Value
$494.76
PnL
+$156.09
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
Invested
$400.51
Value
$450.09
PnL
+$49.58
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Invested
$294.65
Value
$368.67
PnL
+$74.02
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$485.4
Value
—
PnL
-$485.4
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
Invested
$282.88
Value
$279.14
PnL
-$3.74
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
Invested
$136.8
Value
$253.33
PnL
+$116.53
Record
50%
2099-2099 (4198)
Invested
$195.17
Value
$251.03
PnL
+$60.41
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
Invested
$277.84
Value
—
PnL
-$277.84
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Invested
$217.73
Value
—
PnL
-$217.73
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$187.31
Value
$175.6
PnL
-$11.72
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$146.99
Value
$173.91
PnL
+$26.92
Record
49%
1289-1328 (2617)
Invested
$154.13
Value
$359.81
PnL
+$205.67
Record
57%
213-160 (373)
Invested
$145.85
Value
$340.75
PnL
+$194.9
Record
50%
734-736 (1470)
Invested
$86.47
Value
$136.95
PnL
+$50.49
Record
51%
716-697 (1413)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$123.32
Value
$120
PnL
-$3.32
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
FairValueMachineInvested
$69.62
Value
$119.85
PnL
+$50.23
Record
53%
4483-3909 (8392)
Invested
$104.78
Value
$253.44
PnL
+$148.66
Record
51%
909-867 (1776)
Invested
$138.67
Value
—
PnL
-$131.47
Record
46%
728-865 (1593)
Invested
$56.39
Value
$101.31
PnL
+$44.92
Record
51%
726-708 (1434)
Invested
$83.43
Value
$85.33
PnL
+$1.9
Record
52%
793-743 (1536)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $938.89
machinelearned
Down — $821.65
stepahead
Down — $648.08
ByteBadger92
Down — $496.57
Bonereaper
Down — $494.76
almach
Down — $450.09
asdcaxz
Down — $368.67
bosona
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $279.14