Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$12.0K
$-4.2K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 51 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 40% 210-321 (531) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$31.74 | 71% 1474-604 (2078) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 51% 1306-1242 (2548) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 78.9¢ | $777.02 | $985.2 | +$208.18 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $513.08 | $501.83 | +$9.08 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.5¢ | $434.39 | $508.22 | +$73.83 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 90.7¢ | $448.03 | $444.33 | -$3.7 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
AL almach | Downavg 88.5¢ | $367.46 | $408.18 | +$40.72 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.6¢ | $344.11 | $405.71 | +$61.6 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 88¢ | $267 | $300 | +$33 | 51% 319-309 (628) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 72.4¢ | $260.84 | $280 | +$19.16 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 72.9¢ | $220.85 | $270.72 | +$50.87 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 84¢ | $206.82 | $173 | -$33.82 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 63.1¢ | $99.7 | $158.01 | +$58.31 | 40% 700-1069 (1769) |
BO bosona | Downavg 94¢ | $144.13 | $153.33 | +$9.2 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 95.7¢ | $139.79 | $145.99 | +$6.21 | 52% 2488-2319 (4807) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 96.8¢ | $141.25 | $143.89 | +$2.64 | 49% 1289-1328 (2617) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 88.1¢ | $101.74 | $80 | -$21.74 | 46% 728-865 (1593) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88.1¢ | $70.5 | $80 | +$9.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.1¢ | $31.24 | — | -$31.24 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 75.2¢ | $66.49 | $88.45 | +$21.96 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $53.8 | $85.91 | +$32.11 | 45% 644-776 (1420) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $69.75 | $75 | +$5.25 | 48% 1943-2144 (4087) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $57.6 | $60 | +$2.4 | 44% 1926-2494 (4420) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 71.9¢ | $48.05 | $60 | +$11.95 | 47% 1960-2212 (4172) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $30.79 | $46.55 | +$15.76 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $42.57 | $46.13 | +$3.56 | 47% 2004-2262 (4266) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,142.21
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$31.74
Record
71%
1474-604 (2078)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
51%
1306-1242 (2548)
machinelearnedInvested
$777.02
Value
$985.2
PnL
+$208.18
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Invested
$513.08
Value
$501.83
PnL
+$9.08
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$434.39
Value
$508.22
PnL
+$73.83
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
Invested
$448.03
Value
$444.33
PnL
-$3.7
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Invested
$367.46
Value
$408.18
PnL
+$40.72
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Invested
$344.11
Value
$405.71
PnL
+$61.6
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$267
Value
$300
PnL
+$33
Record
51%
319-309 (628)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$260.84
Value
$280
PnL
+$19.16
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
Invested
$220.85
Value
$270.72
PnL
+$50.87
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$206.82
Value
$173
PnL
-$33.82
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$99.7
Value
$158.01
PnL
+$58.31
Record
40%
700-1069 (1769)
Invested
$144.13
Value
$153.33
PnL
+$9.2
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$139.79
Value
$145.99
PnL
+$6.21
Record
52%
2488-2319 (4807)
Invested
$141.25
Value
$143.89
PnL
+$2.64
Record
49%
1289-1328 (2617)
Invested
$101.74
Value
$80
PnL
-$21.74
Record
46%
728-865 (1593)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.49
Value
$88.45
PnL
+$21.96
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$53.8
Value
$85.91
PnL
+$32.11
Record
45%
644-776 (1420)
ohioism<$100Invested
$69.75
Value
$75
PnL
+$5.25
Record
48%
1943-2144 (4087)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$57.6
Value
$60
PnL
+$2.4
Record
44%
1926-2494 (4420)
Invested
$48.05
Value
$60
PnL
+$11.95
Record
47%
1960-2212 (4172)
Invested
$30.79
Value
$46.55
PnL
+$15.76
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$42.57
Value
$46.13
PnL
+$3.56
Record
47%
2004-2262 (4266)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $3.2K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
machinelearned
Down — $985.2
ByteBadger92
Down — $501.83
Bonereaper
Down — $508.22
CrouchPredictions
Down — $444.33
almach
Down — $408.18
stepahead
Down — $405.71
gansinimen
Down — $300