Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Down 81%
3 arb excluded
$15.8K
$530.22
Smart Money Signal
38 of 48 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | +$57 | 40% 210-321 (531) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$18.54 | 99% 786-7 (793) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $935 | +$1.35 | 51% 3148-3049 (6197) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.5¢ | $650.48 | $711.1 | +$92.77 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.8¢ | $543.66 | $552.44 | +$8.78 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $511.18 | $492.38 | -$18.8 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 68¢ | $357.39 | $525.41 | +$168.03 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $563.6 | $489.63 | +$4.82 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 72.3¢ | $429.84 | $413.1 | +$69.12 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 75.9¢ | $402.04 | $389.69 | +$14.62 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 72.8¢ | $347.22 | $289.15 | -$49.03 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 76.2¢ | $215.45 | $215.49 | +$0.04 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 89.2¢ | $174.04 | $192.93 | +$18.89 | 49% 1289-1328 (2617) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 85.7¢ | $177.31 | $194.43 | +$17.11 | 60% 902-608 (1510) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 66.6¢ | $269.18 | $165 | +$29.78 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $190.26 | $137.2 | -$53.06 | 46% 728-865 (1593) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.2¢ | $99.04 | $137.2 | +$38.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.7¢ | $91.23 | — | -$91.23 | |
AL almach | Downavg 77.1¢ | $85.2 | $105.68 | +$20.48 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $105.42 | $146.17 | +$40.75 | 51% 726-708 (1434) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.1¢ | $70.26 | $146.17 | +$75.91 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $35.17 | — | -$35.17 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 77.7¢ | $128.73 | $125.82 | +$14.4 | 59% 914-623 (1537) |
PA Papeasy | Downavg 51.3¢ | $90.03 | $124.06 | +$34.03 | 50% 3793-3736 (7529) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 79.8¢ | $110.02 | $117.07 | +$7.05 | 59% 897-628 (1525) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $101.8 | $84.79 | -$8.74 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 70.8¢ | $47.37 | $66.93 | +$19.56 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $47.01 | $77.41 | +$30.4 | 50% 710-719 (1429) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$57
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$1,980
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$1,835.5
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$18.54
Record
99%
786-7 (793)
Invested
$950
Value
$935
PnL
+$1.35
Record
51%
3148-3049 (6197)
Invested
$650.48
Value
$711.1
PnL
+$92.77
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
Invested
$543.66
Value
$552.44
PnL
+$8.78
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$511.18
Value
$492.38
PnL
-$18.8
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
machinelearnedInvested
$357.39
Value
$525.41
PnL
+$168.03
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Invested
$563.6
Value
$489.63
PnL
+$4.82
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$429.84
Value
$413.1
PnL
+$69.12
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$402.04
Value
$389.69
PnL
+$14.62
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$347.22
Value
$289.15
PnL
-$49.03
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
Invested
$215.45
Value
$215.49
PnL
+$0.04
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Invested
$174.04
Value
$192.93
PnL
+$18.89
Record
49%
1289-1328 (2617)
Invested
$177.31
Value
$194.43
PnL
+$17.11
Record
60%
902-608 (1510)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$269.18
Value
$165
PnL
+$29.78
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
Invested
$190.26
Value
$137.2
PnL
-$53.06
Record
46%
728-865 (1593)
Both legs:
Invested
$85.2
Value
$105.68
PnL
+$20.48
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Invested
$105.42
Value
$146.17
PnL
+$40.75
Record
51%
726-708 (1434)
Both legs:
Invested
$128.73
Value
$125.82
PnL
+$14.4
Record
59%
914-623 (1537)
Invested
$90.03
Value
$124.06
PnL
+$34.03
Record
50%
3793-3736 (7529)
Invested
$110.02
Value
$117.07
PnL
+$7.05
Record
59%
897-628 (1525)
Invested
$101.8
Value
$84.79
PnL
-$8.74
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$47.37
Value
$66.93
PnL
+$19.56
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$47.01
Value
$77.41
PnL
+$30.4
Record
50%
710-719 (1429)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.7K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.0K
THG.
Down — $1.9K
soswald1
Down — $935
Bonereaper
Down — $711.1
stepahead
Down — $552.44
ply-pm0
Down — $492.38
machinelearned
Down — $525.41
ByteBadger92
Down — $489.63
blue.birds
Down — $413.1