Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 69%
3 arb excluded
$8.4K
$-4.5K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 55 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 40% 210-321 (531) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$33.13 | 99% 786-7 (793) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $556.24 | $497.87 | +$7.66 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 84.9¢ | $513.18 | $471.14 | -$42.03 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.7¢ | $426.48 | $465.96 | +$39.48 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 81.8¢ | $430.77 | $453.23 | +$22.46 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
BO bosona | Downavg 77.7¢ | $279.42 | $277.73 | -$1.69 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 65.6¢ | $305.09 | $248.27 | -$56.81 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 69.9¢ | $208.34 | $263.2 | +$54.86 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 82¢ | $334.01 | $247.58 | +$30.2 | 49% 1289-1328 (2617) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 65.4¢ | $196.31 | $231.75 | +$35.44 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
AL almach | Downavg 77.2¢ | $209.97 | $219.49 | +$9.51 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 75.6¢ | $166.56 | $149.18 | -$12.13 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 69.6¢ | $120.27 | $141.99 | +$21.72 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.6¢ | $98.83 | $141.99 | +$43.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 12¢ | $21.44 | — | -$21.44 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $96.71 | $126 | +$29.29 | 48% 675-729 (1404) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $102.95 | $114.09 | +$11.14 | 50% 727-717 (1444) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81.5¢ | $104.99 | $107.37 | +$2.38 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
 ohioism | Downavg 78.4¢ | $95.68 | $104.69 | +$9.01 | 48% 1943-2144 (4087) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 80.4¢ | $99.2 | $106.1 | +$6.9 | 60% 902-608 (1510) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 88¢ | $88 | $100 | +$12 | 71% 1474-604 (2078) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Upavg 35.9¢ | $82.6 | $50 | -$32.6 | 47% 1960-2212 (4172) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.5¢ | $37.75 | $50 | +$12.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.9¢ | $44.85 | — | -$44.85 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $59.58 | $71.13 | +$11.55 | 51% 726-708 (1434) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 76.9¢ | $42.98 | $55.88 | +$12.9 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $61.32 | $50 | -$11.32 | 46% 728-865 (1593) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $57.93 | $53.33 | -$4.6 | 59% 897-628 (1525) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$3,279.87
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$33.13
Record
99%
786-7 (793)
Invested
$556.24
Value
$497.87
PnL
+$7.66
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$513.18
Value
$471.14
PnL
-$42.03
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Invested
$426.48
Value
$465.96
PnL
+$39.48
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$430.77
Value
$453.23
PnL
+$22.46
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
Invested
$279.42
Value
$277.73
PnL
-$1.69
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
Invested
$305.09
Value
$248.27
PnL
-$56.81
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
Invested
$208.34
Value
$263.2
PnL
+$54.86
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
Invested
$334.01
Value
$247.58
PnL
+$30.2
Record
49%
1289-1328 (2617)
Invested
$196.31
Value
$231.75
PnL
+$35.44
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$209.97
Value
$219.49
PnL
+$9.51
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Invested
$166.56
Value
$149.18
PnL
-$12.13
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$120.27
Value
$141.99
PnL
+$21.72
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Both legs:
Invested
$96.71
Value
$126
PnL
+$29.29
Record
48%
675-729 (1404)
Invested
$102.95
Value
$114.09
PnL
+$11.14
Record
50%
727-717 (1444)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$104.99
Value
$107.37
PnL
+$2.38
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
ohioismInvested
$95.68
Value
$104.69
PnL
+$9.01
Record
48%
1943-2144 (4087)
Invested
$99.2
Value
$106.1
PnL
+$6.9
Record
60%
902-608 (1510)
BoneOhioInvested
$88
Value
$100
PnL
+$12
Record
71%
1474-604 (2078)
Invested
$82.6
Value
$50
PnL
-$32.6
Record
47%
1960-2212 (4172)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.58
Value
$71.13
PnL
+$11.55
Record
51%
726-708 (1434)
Invested
$42.98
Value
$55.88
PnL
+$12.9
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$61.32
Value
$50
PnL
-$11.32
Record
46%
728-865 (1593)
Invested
$57.93
Value
$53.33
PnL
-$4.6
Record
59%
897-628 (1525)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.3K
ByteBadger92
Down — $497.87
CrouchPredictions
Down — $471.14
stepahead
Down — $465.96
ply-pm0
Down — $453.23
bosona
Down — $277.73
Bonereaper
Down — $248.27
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $263.2
mo-money
Down — $247.58