Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
54
Up 46%
3 arb excluded
$4.9K
$-8.3K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 54 top traders (46%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 40% 210-321 (531) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 36.4¢ | $690.4 | — | -$690.4 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 53.8¢ | $786.69 | $766.41 | +$76.77 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 46.5¢ | $375.7 | — | -$375.7 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 60.1¢ | $571.22 | $495.06 | -$69.45 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 51¢ | $569.1 | — | -$471.73 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
BO bosona | Downavg 77.6¢ | $1.1K | $500 | -$173.25 | 51% 4556-4418 (8974) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 41.4¢ | $352.19 | $438.19 | +$99.13 | 46% 728-865 (1593) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 58.7¢ | $429.55 | — | -$412.75 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 64.3¢ | $427.73 | $357.53 | -$70.2 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.7¢ | $127.59 | $357.53 | +$229.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.3¢ | $300.14 | — | -$300.14 | |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 60.9¢ | $368.71 | — | -$368.71 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 53¢ | $492.37 | — | -$492.37 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 60.3¢ | $292.68 | — | -$292.68 | 53% 4483-3909 (8392) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 50¢ | $197.33 | $241.48 | +$44.16 | 40% 700-1069 (1769) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 45.6¢ | $186.78 | $220.37 | +$38.94 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 88¢ | $286.02 | $192 | -$94.02 | 26% 440-1221 (1661) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $99.05 | $139.26 | +$40.21 | 45% 644-776 (1420) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 41.8¢ | $52.78 | $126.42 | +$73.64 | 51% 909-867 (1776) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 36.8¢ | $100.7 | $157.28 | +$56.58 | 51% 716-697 (1413) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.8¢ | $57.82 | $157.28 | +$99.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.2¢ | $42.88 | — | -$42.88 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR | Upavg 50.9¢ | $101.65 | — | -$101.65 | 59% 914-623 (1537) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 44.8¢ | $75.26 | $91.01 | +$15.75 | 50% 700-694 (1394) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 65.2¢ | $109.76 | $90.61 | -$19.15 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 40.2¢ | $60.97 | $111.44 | +$50.46 | 50% 727-717 (1444) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100 | Downavg 45.6¢ | $39.68 | $79.54 | +$39.86 | 48% 675-729 (1404) |
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100 | Downavg 44.5¢ | $102.3 | $119.99 | +$17.69 | 57% 213-160 (373) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81.5¢ | $48.9 | — | -$48.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.5¢ | $53.4 | $119.99 | +$66.59 |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$690.4
Value
—
PnL
-$690.4
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
Invested
$786.69
Value
$766.41
PnL
+$76.77
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$375.7
Value
—
PnL
-$375.7
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Invested
$571.22
Value
$495.06
PnL
-$69.45
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$569.1
Value
—
PnL
-$471.73
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$1,144.36
Value
$500
PnL
-$173.25
Record
51%
4556-4418 (8974)
Invested
$352.19
Value
$438.19
PnL
+$99.13
Record
46%
728-865 (1593)
Invested
$429.55
Value
—
PnL
-$412.75
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
Invested
$427.73
Value
$357.53
PnL
-$70.2
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
Both legs:
Invested
$368.71
Value
—
PnL
-$368.71
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$492.37
Value
—
PnL
-$492.37
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$292.68
Value
—
PnL
-$292.68
Record
53%
4483-3909 (8392)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$197.33
Value
$241.48
PnL
+$44.16
Record
40%
700-1069 (1769)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$186.78
Value
$220.37
PnL
+$38.94
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
NIULAI4Invested
$286.02
Value
$192
PnL
-$94.02
Record
26%
440-1221 (1661)
Invested
$99.05
Value
$139.26
PnL
+$40.21
Record
45%
644-776 (1420)
Invested
$52.78
Value
$126.42
PnL
+$73.64
Record
51%
909-867 (1776)
Invested
$100.7
Value
$157.28
PnL
+$56.58
Record
51%
716-697 (1413)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.65
Value
—
PnL
-$101.65
Record
59%
914-623 (1537)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$75.26
Value
$91.01
PnL
+$15.75
Record
50%
700-694 (1394)
Invested
$109.76
Value
$90.61
PnL
-$19.15
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$60.97
Value
$111.44
PnL
+$50.46
Record
50%
727-717 (1444)
Invested
$39.68
Value
$79.54
PnL
+$39.86
Record
48%
675-729 (1404)
Invested
$102.3
Value
$119.99
PnL
+$17.69
Record
57%
213-160 (373)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
Down — $766.41
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $495.06
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $500
GoodFallen
Down — $438.19
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded