Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
41
Down 71%
$12.7K
-$102.61
Smart Money Signal
29 of 41 top traders (71%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$83.32 | 40% 210-321 (531) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$33.1 | 99% 786-7 (793) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 89.7¢ | $545.82 | $545.78 | -$0.04 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 75¢ | $596.91 | $513.98 | -$82.93 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 74¢ | $485.46 | $605.12 | +$119.66 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $528.55 | $494.99 | +$1.96 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.3¢ | $457.08 | $457.23 | +$0.15 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 94.2¢ | $220 | $208.7 | -$11.3 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 71¢ | $209.83 | $210.52 | +$21.74 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 81.3¢ | $182.39 | $201.02 | +$30.24 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 72.7¢ | $167.52 | $184.28 | +$16.76 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 82.7¢ | $103.71 | $115.68 | +$11.97 | 59% 914-623 (1537) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100 | Downavg 83.2¢ | $94.44 | $89.27 | -$5.16 | 48% 675-729 (1404) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 90.3¢ | $77.8 | $85 | +$7.2 | 47% 2004-2262 (4266) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $65.54 | $79.99 | +$14.45 | 60% 902-608 (1510) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $71.99 | $63 | -$8.99 | 51% 716-697 (1413) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $77.28 | $63 | -$14.28 | 45% 644-776 (1420) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $63.23 | $63 | -$0.23 | 51% 726-708 (1434) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $61.01 | $52.94 | -$8.07 | 59% 897-628 (1525) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $50.05 | $50 | -$0.05 | 52% 793-743 (1536) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $55.08 | $39 | -$16.08 | 40% 700-1069 (1769) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $62.03 | — | -$62.03 | 53% 4483-3909 (8392) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 97.2¢ | $40.81 | $42 | +$1.19 | 98% 3400-72 (3472) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $38.7 | $38 | -$0.7 | 50% 700-694 (1394) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $40.48 | $39.38 | -$1.1 | 52% 2488-2319 (4807) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$83.32
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$3,276.9
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$33.1
Record
99%
786-7 (793)
Invested
$545.82
Value
$545.78
PnL
-$0.04
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Invested
$596.91
Value
$513.98
PnL
-$82.93
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
machinelearnedInvested
$485.46
Value
$605.12
PnL
+$119.66
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Invested
$528.55
Value
$494.99
PnL
+$1.96
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$457.08
Value
$457.23
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$220
Value
$208.7
PnL
-$11.3
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$209.83
Value
$210.52
PnL
+$21.74
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
Invested
$182.39
Value
$201.02
PnL
+$30.24
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$167.52
Value
$184.28
PnL
+$16.76
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
Invested
$103.71
Value
$115.68
PnL
+$11.97
Record
59%
914-623 (1537)
Invested
$94.44
Value
$89.27
PnL
-$5.16
Record
48%
675-729 (1404)
Invested
$77.8
Value
$85
PnL
+$7.2
Record
47%
2004-2262 (4266)
Invested
$65.54
Value
$79.99
PnL
+$14.45
Record
60%
902-608 (1510)
Invested
$71.99
Value
$63
PnL
-$8.99
Record
51%
716-697 (1413)
Invested
$77.28
Value
$63
PnL
-$14.28
Record
45%
644-776 (1420)
Invested
$63.23
Value
$63
PnL
-$0.23
Record
51%
726-708 (1434)
Invested
$61.01
Value
$52.94
PnL
-$8.07
Record
59%
897-628 (1525)
Invested
$50.05
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
793-743 (1536)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$55.08
Value
$39
PnL
-$16.08
Record
40%
700-1069 (1769)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$62.03
Value
—
PnL
-$62.03
Record
53%
4483-3909 (8392)
Invested
$40.81
Value
$42
PnL
+$1.19
Record
98%
3400-72 (3472)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$38.7
Value
$38
PnL
-$0.7
Record
50%
700-694 (1394)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$40.48
Value
$39.38
PnL
-$1.1
Record
52%
2488-2319 (4807)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
THG.
Down — $3.3K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $545.78
Bonereaper
Down — $513.98
machinelearned
Down — $605.12
ByteBadger92
Down — $494.99
stepahead
Down — $457.23
blue.birds
Down — $208.7
ply-pm0
Down — $210.52
asdcaxz
Down — $201.02