Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Up 55%
4 arb excluded
$29.4K
$-10.8K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 60 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $8.8K | $7.9K | -$170.63 | 55% 372-303 (675) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 40% 210-321 (531) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$33.07 | 99% 786-7 (793) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 71% 1474-604 (2078) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 98.8¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$155.02 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 88.2¢ | $3.0K | $2.2K | -$762.34 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 92.7¢ | $2.2K | $1.4K | -$790.74 | 51% 319-309 (628) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 74¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | -$434.11 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 72.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | +$563.92 | 29% 158-394 (552) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 57.1¢ | $746.52 | $1.1K | +$320.39 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 73.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$12.67 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$883.53 | 51% 3148-3049 (6197) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 53.3¢ | $758.5 | — | -$758.5 | 55% 4325-3551 (7876) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 63.9¢ | $769.52 | $789.52 | +$19.99 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $577.67 | $445.49 | -$56.16 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.9¢ | $217.74 | $445.49 | +$222.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.2¢ | $286.36 | — | -$278.52 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 35.1¢ | $845.33 | — | -$845.33 | 50% 2099-2099 (4198) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 53.6¢ | $352.42 | $406.37 | +$62.95 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
0X 0xBadB9af986EE66437BD39E6cd3D3036CbbDc31a | Upavg 78¢ | $389.95 | $500 | +$110.05 | — 2-6 (8) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $379.76 | $384 | +$4.24 | 98% 3400-72 (3472) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 78.2¢ | $389.04 | $370 | -$19.04 | 46% 728-865 (1593) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 63¢ | $543.71 | — | -$543.71 | 50% 1303-1301 (2604) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh | Upavg 74.6¢ | $197.57 | $264.94 | +$67.37 | 56% 75-58 (133) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 63¢ | $502.28 | — | -$502.28 | 49% 1289-1328 (2617) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 73.3¢ | $146.5 | $200 | +$53.5 | 51% 909-867 (1776) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 21.7¢ | $285.99 | $109.46 | -$176.53 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.1¢ | $38.38 | $109.46 | +$71.08 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.7¢ | $247.61 | — | -$247.61 |
Invested
$8,803.89
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$170.63
Record
55%
372-303 (675)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$3,273.93
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$33.07
Record
99%
786-7 (793)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
71%
1474-604 (2078)
Invested
$2,716.73
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$155.02
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$3,003.84
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$762.34
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
Invested
$2,171.01
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$790.74
Record
51%
319-309 (628)
Invested
$1,595.07
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$434.11
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Invested
$1,580.52
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$563.92
Record
29%
158-394 (552)
Invested
$746.52
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$320.39
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
Invested
$1,036.23
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$12.67
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$883.53
Record
51%
3148-3049 (6197)
Invested
$758.5
Value
—
PnL
-$758.5
Record
55%
4325-3551 (7876)
Invested
$769.52
Value
$789.52
PnL
+$19.99
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
Invested
$577.67
Value
$445.49
PnL
-$56.16
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Both legs:
Invested
$845.33
Value
—
PnL
-$845.33
Record
50%
2099-2099 (4198)
Invested
$352.42
Value
$406.37
PnL
+$62.95
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$389.95
Value
$500
PnL
+$110.05
Record
—
2-6 (8)
Invested
$379.76
Value
$384
PnL
+$4.24
Record
98%
3400-72 (3472)
Invested
$389.04
Value
$370
PnL
-$19.04
Record
46%
728-865 (1593)
Invested
$543.71
Value
—
PnL
-$543.71
Record
50%
1303-1301 (2604)
Invested
$197.57
Value
$264.94
PnL
+$67.37
Record
56%
75-58 (133)
Invested
$502.28
Value
—
PnL
-$502.28
Record
49%
1289-1328 (2617)
Invested
$146.5
Value
$200
PnL
+$53.5
Record
51%
909-867 (1776)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$285.99
Value
$109.46
PnL
-$176.53
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.9K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.3K
BoneOhio
Up — $3.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $2.6K
ply-pm0
Up — $2.2K
gansinimen
Up — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.2K
ply-pm4
Up — $1.1K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K