Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Up 71%
4 arb excluded
$14.0K
$-8.5K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 48 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-8.5K | 55% 372-303 (675) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.6K | -$63.45 | 40% 210-321 (531) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.04 | 51% 1306-1242 (2548) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 81.8¢ | $816.76 | $977.62 | +$160.86 | 46% 996-1180 (2176) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $947.78 | $957.94 | +$10.16 | 98% 3400-72 (3472) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $527.77 | $500 | -$16.2 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $431.02 | $528.97 | +$97.94 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 90.1¢ | $402.14 | $404.44 | +$2.3 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 85.6¢ | $439.43 | $378.21 | -$57.22 | 60% 963-645 (1608) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99.8¢ | $350.07 | $350.92 | +$0.85 | 48% 1389-1500 (2889) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 91.1¢ | $281.22 | $282.14 | +$0.92 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 67.5¢ | $166.53 | $240.1 | +$73.57 | 29% 158-394 (552) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 81.2¢ | $223.01 | $150.58 | -$72.43 | 46% 936-1091 (2027) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81.2¢ | $122.29 | $150.58 | +$28.29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.3¢ | $100.72 | — | -$100.72 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 88.3¢ | $187.29 | $170 | -$17.29 | 44% 682-872 (1554) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 88.3¢ | $150.1 | $170 | +$19.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 13.4¢ | $37.19 | — | -$37.19 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 92.6¢ | $166.53 | $164.46 | -$2.07 | 51% 716-697 (1413) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 90.5¢ | $179.19 | $133.27 | -$45.92 | 51% 726-708 (1434) |
 Bossgirl | Upavg 60.9¢ | $80.45 | $132 | +$51.56 | 55% 77-63 (140) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 84.5¢ | $119.97 | $126 | +$6.03 | 48% 675-729 (1404) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 99¢ | $129.69 | $131 | +$1.31 | 38% 1317-2163 (3480) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 97.5¢ | $131.01 | $99.99 | -$31.01 | 31% 629-1409 (2038) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 50¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Upavg 91.3¢ | $91.75 | $75 | -$16.75 | 52% 793-743 (1536) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 91.3¢ | $68.5 | $75 | +$6.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 9.4¢ | $23.25 | — | -$23.25 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 99.1¢ | $97.1 | $97.94 | +$0.84 | 52% 2488-2319 (4807) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Upavg 83.7¢ | $69.9 | $70 | +$0.1 | 46% 728-865 (1593) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $93.02 | $63 | -$30.02 | 45% 644-776 (1420) |
Invested
$8,967
Value
—
PnL
$-8.5K
Record
55%
372-303 (675)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$63.45
Record
40%
210-321 (531)
Invested
$3,004.97
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.04
Record
51%
1306-1242 (2548)
machinelearnedInvested
$816.76
Value
$977.62
PnL
+$160.86
Record
46%
996-1180 (2176)
Invested
$947.78
Value
$957.94
PnL
+$10.16
Record
98%
3400-72 (3472)
Invested
$527.77
Value
$500
PnL
-$16.2
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$431.02
Value
$528.97
PnL
+$97.94
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$402.14
Value
$404.44
PnL
+$2.3
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$439.43
Value
$378.21
PnL
-$57.22
Record
60%
963-645 (1608)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$350.07
Value
$350.92
PnL
+$0.85
Record
48%
1389-1500 (2889)
Invested
$281.22
Value
$282.14
PnL
+$0.92
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$166.53
Value
$240.1
PnL
+$73.57
Record
29%
158-394 (552)
Invested
$223.01
Value
$150.58
PnL
-$72.43
Record
46%
936-1091 (2027)
Both legs:
Invested
$187.29
Value
$170
PnL
-$17.29
Record
44%
682-872 (1554)
Both legs:
Invested
$166.53
Value
$164.46
PnL
-$2.07
Record
51%
716-697 (1413)
Invested
$179.19
Value
$133.27
PnL
-$45.92
Record
51%
726-708 (1434)
BossgirlInvested
$80.45
Value
$132
PnL
+$51.56
Record
55%
77-63 (140)
Invested
$119.97
Value
$126
PnL
+$6.03
Record
48%
675-729 (1404)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$129.69
Value
$131
PnL
+$1.31
Record
38%
1317-2163 (3480)
Invested
$131.01
Value
$99.99
PnL
-$31.01
Record
31%
629-1409 (2038)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$100
Value
$100
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
Invested
$91.75
Value
$75
PnL
-$16.75
Record
52%
793-743 (1536)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$97.1
Value
$97.94
PnL
+$0.84
Record
52%
2488-2319 (4807)
Invested
$69.9
Value
$70
PnL
+$0.1
Record
46%
728-865 (1593)
Invested
$93.02
Value
$63
PnL
-$30.02
Record
45%
644-776 (1420)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.6K
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
machinelearned
Up — $977.62
hoodquant
Up — $957.94
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $528.97
blue.birds
Up — $404.44
Bonereaper
Up — $378.21
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $350.92