Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
54
Up 70%
9 arb excluded
$10.4K
$-21.9K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 54 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed37 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.6K | 55% 367-295 (662) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 40% 205-313 (518) |
SH Sharky6999 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$2.34 | 94% 124-8 (132) |
PL ply-pm4 | Downavg 90.3¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$202.27 | 28% 155-391 (546) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 44.6¢ | $1.6K | $956.88 | -$654.18 | 51% 317-307 (624) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.6¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.1¢ | $316.41 | $956.88 | +$640.47 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $866.36 | -$57.8 | 51% 3131-3018 (6149) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $433.18 | $866.36 | +$417.2 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 71¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | 46% 931-1078 (2009) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 76.3¢ | $857.07 | $763.54 | -$93.53 | 52% 4868-4560 (9428) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 73.3¢ | $777.3 | — | -$777.3 | 50% 1296-1286 (2582) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 48.3¢ | $537.63 | $595.39 | +$65.42 | 60% 956-639 (1595) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 42.3¢ | $685.08 | — | -$685.08 | 44% 675-866 (1541) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 70.3¢ | $1.2K | $312.01 | -$923.7 | 51% 4549-4406 (8955) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.3¢ | $952.8 | — | -$952.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 90.7¢ | $282.91 | $312.01 | +$29.1 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 49.3¢ | $586.95 | $545.2 | +$19.15 | 49% 4234-4320 (8554) |
 pspspsps5CTR | Upavg 54.8¢ | $354.67 | — | -$354.67 | 32% 958-2010 (2968) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 51.6¢ | $583.14 | — | -$477.25 | 54% 3222-2710 (5932) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 73.1¢ | $665.7 | — | -$665.7 | 55% 4316-3542 (7858) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 73¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 49% 1282-1313 (2595) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $384.69 | $317.28 | -$67.41 | 46% 720-860 (1580) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.7¢ | $164.13 | $317.28 | +$153.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43¢ | $220.56 | — | -$220.56 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $125 | $135.56 | +$10.57 | 46% 988-1175 (2163) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 10¢ | $80.25 | — | -$80.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33¢ | $44.75 | $135.56 | +$90.82 | |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 40.1¢ | $294.45 | — | -$294.45 | 53% 4478-3902 (8380) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 49.3¢ | $202.17 | — | -$202.17 | 50% 705-711 (1416) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 41.9¢ | $189.18 | $247.93 | +$58.75 | 39% 694-1064 (1758) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.9¢ | $103.95 | $247.93 | +$143.98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.6¢ | $85.23 | — | -$85.23 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR | Upavg 51.1¢ | $175.84 | — | -$175.84 | 51% 710-691 (1401) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh | Downavg 86.1¢ | $185.55 | $215.42 | +$29.87 | 56% 74-57 (131) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $159.58 | $201.92 | +$42.34 | 48% 671-720 (1391) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.2¢ | $94.97 | — | -$94.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32¢ | $64.62 | $201.92 | +$137.31 |
Invested
$8,616
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
55%
367-295 (662)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
40%
205-313 (518)
Invested
$2,338
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$2.34
Record
94%
124-8 (132)
Invested
$1,876.49
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$202.27
Record
28%
155-391 (546)
Invested
$1,611.06
Value
$956.88
PnL
-$654.18
Record
51%
317-307 (624)
Both legs:
Invested
$950
Value
$866.36
PnL
-$57.8
Record
51%
3131-3018 (6149)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,851.8
Value
—
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
46%
931-1078 (2009)
Invested
$857.07
Value
$763.54
PnL
-$93.53
Record
52%
4868-4560 (9428)
Invested
$777.3
Value
—
PnL
-$777.3
Record
50%
1296-1286 (2582)
Invested
$537.63
Value
$595.39
PnL
+$65.42
Record
60%
956-639 (1595)
Invested
$685.08
Value
—
PnL
-$685.08
Record
44%
675-866 (1541)
Invested
$1,235.71
Value
$312.01
PnL
-$923.7
Record
51%
4549-4406 (8955)
Both legs:
Invested
$586.95
Value
$545.2
PnL
+$19.15
Record
49%
4234-4320 (8554)
pspspsps5CTRInvested
$354.67
Value
—
PnL
-$354.67
Record
32%
958-2010 (2968)
Invested
$583.14
Value
—
PnL
-$477.25
Record
54%
3222-2710 (5932)
Invested
$665.7
Value
—
PnL
-$665.7
Record
55%
4316-3542 (7858)
Invested
$1,353.54
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
49%
1282-1313 (2595)
Invested
$384.69
Value
$317.28
PnL
-$67.41
Record
46%
720-860 (1580)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$125
Value
$135.56
PnL
+$10.57
Record
46%
988-1175 (2163)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$294.45
Value
—
PnL
-$294.45
Record
53%
4478-3902 (8380)
Invested
$202.17
Value
—
PnL
-$202.17
Record
50%
705-711 (1416)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$189.18
Value
$247.93
PnL
+$58.75
Record
39%
694-1064 (1758)
Both legs:
Invested
$175.84
Value
—
PnL
-$175.84
Record
51%
710-691 (1401)
Invested
$185.55
Value
$215.42
PnL
+$29.87
Record
56%
74-57 (131)
Invested
$159.58
Value
$201.92
PnL
+$42.34
Record
48%
671-720 (1391)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
Sharky6999
Down — $2.3K
ply-pm4
Down — $2.1K
gansinimen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $763.54
almach
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $595.39