Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
52
Up 27%
$6.9K
$-12.4K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 52 top traders (27%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-7.9K | 55% 367-295 (662) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 40% 205-313 (518) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$16.34 | 98% 3371-72 (3443) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $856.24 | $857.1 | +$0.86 | 51% 1297-1233 (2530) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $542.23 | $497.91 | -$9.46 | 54% 3222-2710 (5932) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 74.4¢ | $313.39 | $362.46 | +$49.07 | 60% 956-639 (1595) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 92.1¢ | $451.03 | $309.93 | -$141.1 | 46% 988-1175 (2163) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $305.22 | $308.3 | +$3.08 | 99% 784-7 (791) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 81.5¢ | $325.81 | $292.82 | -$32.99 | 55% 4316-3542 (7858) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 82.2¢ | $228.25 | $277.72 | +$49.47 | 50% 2078-2073 (4151) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 86.1¢ | $308.74 | $266.08 | +$25.93 | 52% 4868-4560 (9428) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 96.8¢ | $258.23 | $251.75 | -$6.48 | 52% 787-736 (1523) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 76.2¢ | $186.15 | $207.92 | +$21.77 | 44% 675-866 (1541) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $159.35 | $173.79 | +$14.44 | 51% 710-691 (1401) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 82¢ | $339.07 | $167.36 | -$27.14 | 52% 2057-1924 (3981) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 98.2¢ | $147.36 | $150 | +$2.64 | 38% 1307-2140 (3447) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 88.4¢ | $133.47 | $143.05 | +$11.02 | 49% 4234-4320 (8554) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 90¢ | $128.92 | $132.35 | +$3.61 | 53% 795-703 (1498) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 81¢ | $103.2 | $127.35 | +$24.15 | 52% 801-749 (1550) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 80.7¢ | $107.31 | $116.62 | +$9.3 | 46% 720-860 (1580) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $136.87 | $94.28 | -$42.59 | 31% 625-1400 (2025) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 96.2¢ | $94.67 | $95.6 | +$0.92 | 32% 958-2010 (2968) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 90.1¢ | $86.99 | $91.1 | +$4.11 | 60% 893-604 (1497) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 89.5¢ | $75.67 | $84.34 | +$8.67 | 59% 904-620 (1524) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $57.5 | $67.41 | +$9.91 | 55% 830-672 (1502) |
Invested
$8,515
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
55%
367-295 (662)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
40%
205-313 (518)
Invested
$1,121.67
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$16.34
Record
98%
3371-72 (3443)
Invested
$856.24
Value
$857.1
PnL
+$0.86
Record
51%
1297-1233 (2530)
Invested
$542.23
Value
$497.91
PnL
-$9.46
Record
54%
3222-2710 (5932)
Invested
$313.39
Value
$362.46
PnL
+$49.07
Record
60%
956-639 (1595)
machinelearnedInvested
$451.03
Value
$309.93
PnL
-$141.1
Record
46%
988-1175 (2163)
Invested
$305.22
Value
$308.3
PnL
+$3.08
Record
99%
784-7 (791)
Invested
$325.81
Value
$292.82
PnL
-$32.99
Record
55%
4316-3542 (7858)
Invested
$228.25
Value
$277.72
PnL
+$49.47
Record
50%
2078-2073 (4151)
Invested
$308.74
Value
$266.08
PnL
+$25.93
Record
52%
4868-4560 (9428)
Invested
$258.23
Value
$251.75
PnL
-$6.48
Record
52%
787-736 (1523)
Invested
$186.15
Value
$207.92
PnL
+$21.77
Record
44%
675-866 (1541)
Invested
$159.35
Value
$173.79
PnL
+$14.44
Record
51%
710-691 (1401)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$339.07
Value
$167.36
PnL
-$27.14
Record
52%
2057-1924 (3981)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$147.36
Value
$150
PnL
+$2.64
Record
38%
1307-2140 (3447)
Invested
$133.47
Value
$143.05
PnL
+$11.02
Record
49%
4234-4320 (8554)
Invested
$128.92
Value
$132.35
PnL
+$3.61
Record
53%
795-703 (1498)
Invested
$103.2
Value
$127.35
PnL
+$24.15
Record
52%
801-749 (1550)
Invested
$107.31
Value
$116.62
PnL
+$9.3
Record
46%
720-860 (1580)
Invested
$136.87
Value
$94.28
PnL
-$42.59
Record
31%
625-1400 (2025)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$94.67
Value
$95.6
PnL
+$0.92
Record
32%
958-2010 (2968)
Invested
$86.99
Value
$91.1
PnL
+$4.11
Record
60%
893-604 (1497)
Invested
$75.67
Value
$84.34
PnL
+$8.67
Record
59%
904-620 (1524)
Invested
$57.5
Value
$67.41
PnL
+$9.91
Record
55%
830-672 (1502)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
0x50f7
Down — $857.1
ByteBadger92
Down — $497.91
Bonereaper
Down — $362.46
machinelearned
Down — $309.93
THG.
Down — $308.3
stepahead
Down — $292.82
uninformedfloww
Down — $277.72