Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$472.36

Smart Money Signal

Down

41 of 50 top traders (82%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down41 traders

Total Value$23.4K

Total Shares23,440

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,354

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.3K	+$109.99	55% 367-295 (662)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$70.47	40% 205-313 (518)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 87.7¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$332.62	50% 1772-1760 (3532)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 72.8¢	$827.96	$854.07	+$28.32	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
AL almach	Downavg 71.2¢	$539.95	$758.26	+$218.31	50% 1296-1286 (2582)
ST stepahead	Downavg 67.8¢	$552.25	$586.22	+$33.97	55% 4316-3542 (7858)
MO mo-money	Downavg 68.7¢	$553.5	$787.76	+$234.26	49% 1282-1313 (2595)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$485.67	$489.41	+$3.75	60% 956-639 (1595)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$299.57	$489.41	+$189.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$186.1	—	-$186.1
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.1¢	$588.46	—	-$479.9	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
SH Sharky6999	Downavg 99.9¢	$342.55	$342.89	+$0.34	94% 124-8 (132)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 54.3¢	$315.19	$294.31	+$1.57	44% 675-866 (1541)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 46.8¢	$186.14	$289.99	+$131.29	46% 720-860 (1580)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 64.2¢	$220.22	$280.65	+$60.42	52% 787-736 (1523)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 62.1¢	$274.93	$249.44	-$25.49	46% 931-1078 (2009)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 71.3¢	$223.13	$249.02	+$25.89	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 57.8¢	$177.66	$221.02	+$43.36	51% 719-702 (1421)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 53.4¢	$181.82	$292.08	+$110.26	53% 4478-3902 (8380)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 64.4¢	$207.75	$188	-$19.75	50% 693-688 (1381)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.4¢	$121.08	$188	+$66.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$86.67	—	-$86.67
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$171.9	$180.12	+$8.22	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$101.46	$180.12	+$78.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.8¢	$70.44	—	-$70.44
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 62.2¢	$171.19	$159	+$10.54	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
LI Little-big	Downavg 51.7¢	$74.77	$144.67	+$69.9	51% 900-856 (1756)
machinelearned	Downavg 58.2¢	$96.08	$152.88	+$56.8	46% 988-1175 (2163)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 47.1¢	$110.41	$137.16	+$26.75	55% 830-672 (1502)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 57.8¢	$89.64	$125.99	+$36.35	45% 639-768 (1407)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 52.8¢	$109.06	$129.26	+$20.2	39% 694-1064 (1758)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,855

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$109.99

Record

55%

367-295 (662)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$70.47

Record

40%

205-313 (518)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,363.93

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$332.62

Record

50%

1772-1760 (3532)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$827.96

Value

$854.07

PnL

+$28.32

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

almach

Down

Invested

$539.95

Value

$758.26

PnL

+$218.31

Record

50%

1296-1286 (2582)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$552.25

Value

$586.22

PnL

+$33.97

Record

55%

4316-3542 (7858)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$553.5

Value

$787.76

PnL

+$234.26

Record

49%

1282-1313 (2595)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$485.67

Value

$489.41

PnL

+$3.75

Record

60%

956-639 (1595)

Both legs:

Down$299.5761.2¢+$189.84

Up$186.139.9¢-$186.1

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$588.46

Value

—

PnL

-$479.9

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Sharky6999

Down

Invested

$342.55

Value

$342.89

PnL

+$0.34

Record

94%

124-8 (132)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$315.19

Value

$294.31

PnL

+$1.57

Record

44%

675-866 (1541)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$186.14

Value

$289.99

PnL

+$131.29

Record

46%

720-860 (1580)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$220.22

Value

$280.65

PnL

+$60.42

Record

52%

787-736 (1523)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$274.93

Value

$249.44

PnL

-$25.49

Record

46%

931-1078 (2009)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$223.13

Value

$249.02

PnL

+$25.89

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$177.66

Value

$221.02

PnL

+$43.36

Record

51%

719-702 (1421)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$181.82

Value

$292.08

PnL

+$110.26

Record

53%

4478-3902 (8380)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.75

Value

$188

PnL

-$19.75

Record

50%

693-688 (1381)

Both legs:

Down$121.0864.4¢+$66.92

Up$86.6744.4¢-$86.67

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$171.9

Value

$180.12

PnL

+$8.22

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

Both legs:

Down$101.4656.3¢+$78.66

Up$70.4442.8¢-$70.44

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$171.19

Value

$159

PnL

+$10.54

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$74.77

Value

$144.67

PnL

+$69.9

Record

51%

900-856 (1756)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$96.08

Value

$152.88

PnL

+$56.8

Record

46%

988-1175 (2163)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$110.41

Value

$137.16

PnL

+$26.75

Record

55%

830-672 (1502)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$89.64

Value

$125.99

PnL

+$36.35

Record

45%

639-768 (1407)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$109.06

Value

$129.26

PnL

+$20.2

Record

39%

694-1064 (1758)

Smart Money Signal

Down

41 of 50 top traders (82%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0042f681...cfac60

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794655500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.3K

+$109.99

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

+$70.47

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.7K

+$332.62

asdcaxz

Down — $854.07

+$28.32

almach

Down — $758.26

+$218.31

stepahead

Down — $586.22

+$33.97

mo-money

Down — $787.76

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

Sharky6999

Down — $342.89

+$0.34

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