Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Down 56%
4 arb excluded
$14.9K
$-8.9K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 50 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $7.9K | +$60.49 | 55% 367-295 (662) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 40% 205-313 (518) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20 | 50% 1772-1760 (3532) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 68.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$18.15 | 49% 4234-4320 (8554) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 51.3¢ | $785.73 | — | -$785.73 | 55% 4316-3542 (7858) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.4¢ | $601.04 | — | -$489.37 | 54% 3222-2710 (5932) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 66.3¢ | $478 | $442.74 | -$35.26 | 31% 625-1400 (2025) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 61.4¢ | $372.02 | $398.9 | +$26.89 | 44% 675-866 (1541) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 58.2¢ | $457.66 | $392.6 | -$64.46 | 52% 4868-4560 (9428) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 82.6¢ | $330.81 | $393.74 | +$62.93 | 46% 988-1175 (2163) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 73¢ | $636.97 | — | -$624.97 | 50% 1296-1286 (2582) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 43.7¢ | $297.09 | — | -$297.09 | 60% 956-639 (1595) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $241.44 | $225.81 | -$15.63 | 46% 931-1078 (2009) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.8¢ | $92.16 | $225.81 | +$133.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24¢ | $149.29 | — | -$149.29 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 45¢ | $204.21 | $279.97 | +$89.41 | 46% 720-860 (1580) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 44.3¢ | $312.06 | — | -$312.06 | 51% 2945-2881 (5826) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 75.6¢ | $281.35 | $245.57 | -$35.78 | 55% 830-672 (1502) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $164.47 | $231.01 | +$66.54 | 51% 719-702 (1421) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 61.2¢ | $181.52 | $163.94 | -$17.58 | 53% 795-703 (1498) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 48.3¢ | $129.38 | $149.42 | +$20.03 | 52% 2057-1924 (3981) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.3¢ | $72.14 | $149.42 | +$77.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.7¢ | $57.24 | — | -$57.24 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $128 | $79.74 | -$48.26 | 51% 710-691 (1401) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $91.99 | — | -$91.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $36.01 | $79.74 | +$43.73 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 94.6¢ | $124.09 | $107.22 | +$0.73 | 52% 787-736 (1523) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR | Upavg 59.9¢ | $120.89 | — | -$120.89 | 59% 904-620 (1524) |
SP spartacrayCTR | Upavg 51.9¢ | $124.04 | — | -$124.04 | 59% 886-626 (1512) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR | Upavg 55.8¢ | $114.12 | — | -$114.12 | 60% 893-604 (1497) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $71.87 | $64.08 | -$7.79 | 50% 705-711 (1416) |
Invested
$8,713
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$60.49
Record
55%
367-295 (662)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
40%
205-313 (518)
Invested
$1,980
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20
Record
50%
1772-1760 (3532)
Invested
$1,025.58
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$18.15
Record
49%
4234-4320 (8554)
Invested
$785.73
Value
—
PnL
-$785.73
Record
55%
4316-3542 (7858)
Invested
$601.04
Value
—
PnL
-$489.37
Record
54%
3222-2710 (5932)
Invested
$478
Value
$442.74
PnL
-$35.26
Record
31%
625-1400 (2025)
Invested
$372.02
Value
$398.9
PnL
+$26.89
Record
44%
675-866 (1541)
Invested
$457.66
Value
$392.6
PnL
-$64.46
Record
52%
4868-4560 (9428)
machinelearnedInvested
$330.81
Value
$393.74
PnL
+$62.93
Record
46%
988-1175 (2163)
Invested
$636.97
Value
—
PnL
-$624.97
Record
50%
1296-1286 (2582)
Invested
$297.09
Value
—
PnL
-$297.09
Record
60%
956-639 (1595)
Invested
$241.44
Value
$225.81
PnL
-$15.63
Record
46%
931-1078 (2009)
Both legs:
Invested
$204.21
Value
$279.97
PnL
+$89.41
Record
46%
720-860 (1580)
Invested
$312.06
Value
—
PnL
-$312.06
Record
51%
2945-2881 (5826)
Invested
$281.35
Value
$245.57
PnL
-$35.78
Record
55%
830-672 (1502)
Invested
$164.47
Value
$231.01
PnL
+$66.54
Record
51%
719-702 (1421)
Invested
$181.52
Value
$163.94
PnL
-$17.58
Record
53%
795-703 (1498)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$129.38
Value
$149.42
PnL
+$20.03
Record
52%
2057-1924 (3981)
Both legs:
Invested
$128
Value
$79.74
PnL
-$48.26
Record
51%
710-691 (1401)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.09
Value
$107.22
PnL
+$0.73
Record
52%
787-736 (1523)
Invested
$120.89
Value
—
PnL
-$120.89
Record
59%
904-620 (1524)
Invested
$124.04
Value
—
PnL
-$124.04
Record
59%
886-626 (1512)
Invested
$114.12
Value
—
PnL
-$114.12
Record
60%
893-604 (1497)
Invested
$71.87
Value
$64.08
PnL
-$7.79
Record
50%
705-711 (1416)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.9K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.0K
asdcaxz
Down — $1.0K
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $442.74
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $398.9
blue.birds
Down — $392.6
machinelearned
Down — $393.74