Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Down 30%
1 arb excluded
$6.7K
$-13.6K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 55 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-7.7K | 55% 367-295 (662) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 40% 205-313 (518) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 55.5¢ | $564.34 | $639.1 | +$74.76 | 55% 4316-3542 (7858) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 61.8¢ | $607.66 | $581.65 | -$26.01 | 31% 625-1400 (2025) |
BO bosona | Upavg 64.7¢ | $333.99 | $513.14 | +$179.15 | 51% 4549-4406 (8955) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $533.1 | $498.33 | -$1.49 | 54% 3222-2710 (5932) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 74.7¢ | $609.71 | $447.62 | -$162.09 | 46% 988-1175 (2163) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 68.3¢ | $377.26 | $384.62 | +$7.36 | 49% 4234-4320 (8554) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 45.1¢ | $305.64 | $379.63 | +$73.98 | 46% 931-1078 (2009) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 62.3¢ | $335.11 | $316.51 | -$18.61 | 60% 956-639 (1595) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 47¢ | $99 | $210.64 | +$111.64 | 51% 900-856 (1756) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 71.5¢ | $207.27 | $215 | +$10.82 | 53% 795-703 (1498) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 61.2¢ | $138.83 | $174.66 | +$36.01 | 52% 4868-4560 (9428) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 63.5¢ | $145.13 | $188.38 | +$43.25 | 53% 4478-3902 (8380) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 52.6¢ | $163.31 | $159.99 | -$3.32 | 52% 2057-1924 (3981) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 83¢ | $151.23 | $182.2 | +$30.97 | 49% 1282-1313 (2595) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 36.3¢ | $233.88 | — | -$209.28 | 44% 675-866 (1541) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 37.4¢ | $168.75 | — | -$159.3 | 51% 2945-2881 (5826) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 64.6¢ | $80.61 | $124.84 | +$44.23 | 59% 886-626 (1512) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 31.3¢ | $113.81 | — | -$113.81 | 55% 830-672 (1502) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 50.8¢ | $125.81 | $110.45 | +$15.39 | 46% 720-860 (1580) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 80.7¢ | $106.13 | $101.99 | -$4.14 | 52% 787-736 (1523) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 52.7¢ | $100.48 | $100.99 | +$5.63 | 52% 801-749 (1550) |
AL Alpharo28ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.8¢ | $102.56 | $114.38 | +$11.82 | 58% 205-151 (356) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $50.18 | — | -$50.18 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.8¢ | $52.38 | $114.38 | +$62 | |
 OhioAI | Upavg 66.4¢ | $104.89 | $94.32 | -$10.58 | 50% 693-688 (1381) |
Invested
$8,541
Value
—
PnL
$-7.7K
Record
55%
367-295 (662)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
40%
205-313 (518)
Invested
$564.34
Value
$639.1
PnL
+$74.76
Record
55%
4316-3542 (7858)
Invested
$607.66
Value
$581.65
PnL
-$26.01
Record
31%
625-1400 (2025)
Invested
$333.99
Value
$513.14
PnL
+$179.15
Record
51%
4549-4406 (8955)
Invested
$533.1
Value
$498.33
PnL
-$1.49
Record
54%
3222-2710 (5932)
machinelearnedInvested
$609.71
Value
$447.62
PnL
-$162.09
Record
46%
988-1175 (2163)
Invested
$377.26
Value
$384.62
PnL
+$7.36
Record
49%
4234-4320 (8554)
Invested
$305.64
Value
$379.63
PnL
+$73.98
Record
46%
931-1078 (2009)
Invested
$335.11
Value
$316.51
PnL
-$18.61
Record
60%
956-639 (1595)
Invested
$99
Value
$210.64
PnL
+$111.64
Record
51%
900-856 (1756)
Invested
$207.27
Value
$215
PnL
+$10.82
Record
53%
795-703 (1498)
Invested
$138.83
Value
$174.66
PnL
+$36.01
Record
52%
4868-4560 (9428)
FairValueMachineInvested
$145.13
Value
$188.38
PnL
+$43.25
Record
53%
4478-3902 (8380)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$163.31
Value
$159.99
PnL
-$3.32
Record
52%
2057-1924 (3981)
Invested
$151.23
Value
$182.2
PnL
+$30.97
Record
49%
1282-1313 (2595)
Invested
$233.88
Value
—
PnL
-$209.28
Record
44%
675-866 (1541)
Invested
$168.75
Value
—
PnL
-$159.3
Record
51%
2945-2881 (5826)
Invested
$80.61
Value
$124.84
PnL
+$44.23
Record
59%
886-626 (1512)
Invested
$113.81
Value
—
PnL
-$113.81
Record
55%
830-672 (1502)
Invested
$125.81
Value
$110.45
PnL
+$15.39
Record
46%
720-860 (1580)
Invested
$106.13
Value
$101.99
PnL
-$4.14
Record
52%
787-736 (1523)
Invested
$100.48
Value
$100.99
PnL
+$5.63
Record
52%
801-749 (1550)
Invested
$102.56
Value
$114.38
PnL
+$11.82
Record
58%
205-151 (356)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$104.89
Value
$94.32
PnL
-$10.58
Record
50%
693-688 (1381)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $639.1
ply-pm0
Up — $581.65
bosona
Up — $513.14
ByteBadger92
Up — $498.33
machinelearned
Up — $447.62
asdcaxz
Up — $384.62
CrouchPredictions
Up — $379.63
Bonereaper
Up — $316.51