Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

41 of 60 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up41 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares23,845

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Down19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,563

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$7.7K	-$219.54	55% 367-295 (662)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.6K	+$14.45	40% 205-313 (518)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.47	99% 784-7 (791)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$950	—	-$909.44	51% 3131-3018 (6149)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.8¢	$855.93	$833.52	+$20.28	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 75.1¢	$799.81	$812.3	+$36.98	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
ST stepahead	Upavg 74.3¢	$756.23	$700.96	-$55.27	55% 4316-3542 (7858)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 63¢	$406.57	$644.9	+$238.33	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 66.1¢	$632.61	$615.18	-$9.24	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 72.7¢	$510.42	$533.38	+$22.96	53% 795-703 (1498)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 64.2¢	$413.75	$338.03	-$75.72	44% 675-866 (1541)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 54.5¢	$612.12	$475.76	+$16.04	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 42.3¢	$286.82	$468.56	+$181.74	46% 931-1078 (2009)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 80.1¢	$689.12	$466.31	-$219.07	60% 956-639 (1595)
machinelearned	Upavg 75.5¢	$357.85	$404.43	+$46.58	46% 988-1175 (2163)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.5¢	$356.42	$365.6	+$9.18	98% 3371-72 (3443)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 93¢	$466.53	$354.18	-$13.35	52% 787-736 (1523)
NIULAI4	Upavg 42.6¢	$190.77	$322.22	+$131.45	26% 433-1215 (1648)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR	Downavg 63.3¢	$271.73	—	-$271.73	50% 723-710 (1433)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 66.1¢	$278.46	$245	-$21.16	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 72.9¢	$288.01	$270.96	-$17.05	46% 720-860 (1580)
BO bosona	Upavg 65¢	$393.11	$228.8	-$8.13	51% 4549-4406 (8955)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 38.1¢	$150.58	—	-$150.58	53% 4478-3902 (8380)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 70¢	$170.09	$209.99	+$39.9	47% 1950-2185 (4135)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 67.7¢	$140.57	$183.94	+$43.38	50% 705-711 (1416)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,773

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$219.54

Record

55%

367-295 (662)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$14.45

Record

40%

205-313 (518)

THG.

Invested

$1,828.24

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.47

Record

99%

784-7 (791)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$950

Value

—

PnL

-$909.44

Record

51%

3131-3018 (6149)

blue.birds

Invested

$855.93

Value

$833.52

PnL

+$20.28

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

asdcaxz

Invested

$799.81

Value

$812.3

PnL

+$36.98

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

stepahead

Invested

$756.23

Value

$700.96

PnL

-$55.27

Record

55%

4316-3542 (7858)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$406.57

Value

$644.9

PnL

+$238.33

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$632.61

Value

$615.18

PnL

-$9.24

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$510.42

Value

$533.38

PnL

+$22.96

Record

53%

795-703 (1498)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$413.75

Value

$338.03

PnL

-$75.72

Record

44%

675-866 (1541)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$612.12

Value

$475.76

PnL

+$16.04

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$286.82

Value

$468.56

PnL

+$181.74

Record

46%

931-1078 (2009)

Bonereaper

Invested

$689.12

Value

$466.31

PnL

-$219.07

Record

60%

956-639 (1595)

machinelearned

Invested

$357.85

Value

$404.43

PnL

+$46.58

Record

46%

988-1175 (2163)

hoodquant

Invested

$356.42

Value

$365.6

PnL

+$9.18

Record

98%

3371-72 (3443)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$466.53

Value

$354.18

PnL

-$13.35

Record

52%

787-736 (1523)

NIULAI4

Invested

$190.77

Value

$322.22

PnL

+$131.45

Record

26%

433-1215 (1648)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR

Down

Invested

$271.73

Value

—

PnL

-$271.73

Record

50%

723-710 (1433)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$278.46

Value

$245

PnL

-$21.16

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

GoodFallen

Invested

$288.01

Value

$270.96

PnL

-$17.05

Record

46%

720-860 (1580)

bosona

Invested

$393.11

Value

$228.8

PnL

-$8.13

Record

51%

4549-4406 (8955)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$150.58

Value

—

PnL

-$150.58

Record

53%

4478-3902 (8380)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$170.09

Value

$209.99

PnL

+$39.9

Record

47%

1950-2185 (4135)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$140.57

Value

$183.94

PnL

+$43.38

Record

50%

705-711 (1416)

Smart Money Signal

41 of 60 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf56366a9...851e85

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794654600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.7K

-$219.54

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.6K

+$14.45

THG.

Up — $1.8K

+$18.47

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$909.44

blue.birds

Up — $833.52

+$20.28

asdcaxz

Up — $812.3

+$36.98

stepahead

Up — $700.96

-$55.27

uninformedfloww

Up — $644.9

+$238.33

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $615.18

-$9.24

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $533.38

+$22.96

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