Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$-12.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

36 of 52 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,256

Combined PnL$-12.6K

Down36 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares13,193

Combined PnL+$56.49

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	—	$-7.8K	55% 367-295 (662)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.6K	40% 205-313 (518)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$27.49	71% 1465-598 (2063)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$105.22	50% 1772-1760 (3532)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 88.9¢	$981.9	$972.05	-$9.85	46% 931-1078 (2009)
machinelearned	Downavg 87.2¢	$816.5	$769.26	-$47.24	46% 988-1175 (2163)
ST stepahead	Downavg 81.7¢	$662.09	$687	+$24.92	55% 4316-3542 (7858)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 88.3¢	$578.41	$554.09	-$24.32	31% 625-1400 (2025)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 82.2¢	$541.53	$515.94	-$25.59	60% 956-639 (1595)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 54.3¢	$562.23	$492.69	+$3.87	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
BO bosona	Downavg 96¢	$809.99	$442.7	+$33.11	51% 4549-4406 (8955)
AL almach	Downavg 74.9¢	$296.42	$384.26	+$87.85	50% 1296-1286 (2582)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 84.5¢	$492.81	$380.6	+$6.4	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.3¢	$370.61	$381	+$10.39	98% 3371-72 (3443)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 90¢	$306.36	$293.4	-$12.96	52% 787-736 (1523)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 83.4¢	$276.18	$290.25	+$14.07	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 80.5¢	$300.78	$289.37	-$7.21	44% 675-866 (1541)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 85.2¢	$264.62	$269.98	+$5.36	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 90.5¢	$272.24	$271.14	-$1.1	53% 795-703 (1498)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 86.2¢	$190.27	$195.62	+$5.35	55% 830-672 (1502)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 86.5¢	$190.9	$185.05	+$0.26	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 19.8¢	$214.11	$124.73	-$89.38	46% 720-860 (1580)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.6¢	$103.05	$124.73	+$21.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.8¢	$111.06	—	-$111.06
PA Papeasy	Downavg 82.1¢	$97.75	$108.96	+$11.21	50% 3785-3731 (7516)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 91.3¢	$82.78	$84.76	+$2.41	44% 1915-2467 (4382)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 74¢	$73.78	$99.7	+$25.92	51% 317-307 (624)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,605

Value

—

PnL

$-7.8K

Record

55%

367-295 (662)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

40%

205-313 (518)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,971.81

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$27.49

Record

71%

1465-598 (2063)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,105.22

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$105.22

Record

50%

1772-1760 (3532)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$981.9

Value

$972.05

PnL

-$9.85

Record

46%

931-1078 (2009)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$816.5

Value

$769.26

PnL

-$47.24

Record

46%

988-1175 (2163)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$662.09

Value

$687

PnL

+$24.92

Record

55%

4316-3542 (7858)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$578.41

Value

$554.09

PnL

-$24.32

Record

31%

625-1400 (2025)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$541.53

Value

$515.94

PnL

-$25.59

Record

60%

956-639 (1595)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$562.23

Value

$492.69

PnL

+$3.87

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

bosona

Down

Invested

$809.99

Value

$442.7

PnL

+$33.11

Record

51%

4549-4406 (8955)

almach

Down

Invested

$296.42

Value

$384.26

PnL

+$87.85

Record

50%

1296-1286 (2582)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$492.81

Value

$380.6

PnL

+$6.4

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$370.61

Value

$381

PnL

+$10.39

Record

98%

3371-72 (3443)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$306.36

Value

$293.4

PnL

-$12.96

Record

52%

787-736 (1523)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$276.18

Value

$290.25

PnL

+$14.07

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$300.78

Value

$289.37

PnL

-$7.21

Record

44%

675-866 (1541)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$264.62

Value

$269.98

PnL

+$5.36

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$272.24

Value

$271.14

PnL

-$1.1

Record

53%

795-703 (1498)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$190.27

Value

$195.62

PnL

+$5.35

Record

55%

830-672 (1502)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$190.9

Value

$185.05

PnL

+$0.26

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$214.11

Value

$124.73

PnL

-$89.38

Record

46%

720-860 (1580)

Both legs:

Down$103.0582.6¢+$21.68

Up$111.0619.8¢-$111.06

Papeasy

Down

Invested

$97.75

Value

$108.96

PnL

+$11.21

Record

50%

3785-3731 (7516)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$82.78

Value

$84.76

PnL

+$2.41

Record

44%

1915-2467 (4382)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$73.78

Value

$99.7

PnL

+$25.92

Record

51%

317-307 (624)

Smart Money Signal

Down

36 of 52 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x78533fba...b462e1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794654300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

+$27.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.0K

-$105.22

CrouchPredictions

Down — $972.05

-$9.85

machinelearned

Down — $769.26

-$47.24

stepahead

Down — $687

+$24.92

ply-pm0

Down — $554.09

-$24.32

Bonereaper

Down — $515.94

-$25.59

ByteBadger92

Down — $492.69

+$3.87

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