Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 60%
5 arb excluded
$23.2K
$-2.3K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 53 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.2K | +$122.28 | 55% 367-295 (662) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$328.42 | 40% 205-313 (518) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$33 | 99% 784-7 (791) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $940 | +$61.44 | 51% 3131-3018 (6149) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $427.37 | — | -$409.66 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $470 | $940 | +$471.1 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 41.7¢ | $511.71 | $772.14 | +$261.6 | 44% 675-866 (1541) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 69.1¢ | $738.49 | — | -$738.49 | 52% 4868-4560 (9428) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 55.7¢ | $649.31 | — | -$633.71 | 49% 4234-4320 (8554) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Upavg 81.1¢ | $578.69 | — | -$578.69 | 51% 317-307 (624) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 91.9¢ | $463.63 | $504.75 | +$41.12 | 49% 1282-1313 (2595) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $596.55 | $484.78 | -$17.49 | 54% 3222-2710 (5932) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.6¢ | $230.86 | $484.78 | +$244.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.6¢ | $272.74 | — | -$261.51 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 30.7¢ | $224.98 | $463.79 | +$238.82 | 46% 931-1078 (2009) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 54.8¢ | $503.17 | — | -$503.17 | 60% 956-639 (1595) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 48.2¢ | $300.24 | $367.25 | +$67.01 | 55% 4316-3542 (7858) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 42.8¢ | $285.94 | $334.65 | +$57.21 | 46% 720-860 (1580) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 67.3¢ | $286.17 | — | -$286.17 | 52% 2057-1924 (3981) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 51.5¢ | $114.98 | $223.16 | +$108.18 | 53% 4478-3902 (8380) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 73¢ | $215.88 | $210 | -$5.88 | 52% 787-736 (1523) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 34.8¢ | $137.48 | $207.5 | +$70.02 | 50% 723-710 (1433) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 37¢ | $184.86 | — | -$149.41 | 51% 2945-2881 (5826) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Upavg 74.9¢ | $225.49 | — | -$225.49 | 53% 795-703 (1498) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 79.1¢ | $181.65 | $312.3 | +$130.65 | 51% 4549-4406 (8955) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79.1¢ | $125.99 | — | -$125.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.8¢ | $55.66 | $312.3 | +$256.64 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 61.9¢ | $118.2 | — | -$118.2 | 52% 801-749 (1550) |
 ohioism | Downavg 49.9¢ | $176.51 | $171.62 | -$2.88 | 48% 1927-2124 (4051) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 21.8¢ | $55.14 | $252.36 | +$197.22 | 46% 988-1175 (2163) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 69.3¢ | $118.04 | $142.49 | +$24.45 | 55% 830-672 (1502) |
Invested
$8,851
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$122.28
Record
55%
367-295 (662)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$328.42
Record
40%
205-313 (518)
Invested
$3,267
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$33
Record
99%
784-7 (791)
Invested
$950
Value
$940
PnL
+$61.44
Record
51%
3131-3018 (6149)
Both legs:
Invested
$511.71
Value
$772.14
PnL
+$261.6
Record
44%
675-866 (1541)
Invested
$738.49
Value
—
PnL
-$738.49
Record
52%
4868-4560 (9428)
Invested
$649.31
Value
—
PnL
-$633.71
Record
49%
4234-4320 (8554)
Invested
$578.69
Value
—
PnL
-$578.69
Record
51%
317-307 (624)
Invested
$463.63
Value
$504.75
PnL
+$41.12
Record
49%
1282-1313 (2595)
Invested
$596.55
Value
$484.78
PnL
-$17.49
Record
54%
3222-2710 (5932)
Both legs:
Invested
$224.98
Value
$463.79
PnL
+$238.82
Record
46%
931-1078 (2009)
Invested
$503.17
Value
—
PnL
-$503.17
Record
60%
956-639 (1595)
Invested
$300.24
Value
$367.25
PnL
+$67.01
Record
55%
4316-3542 (7858)
Invested
$285.94
Value
$334.65
PnL
+$57.21
Record
46%
720-860 (1580)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$286.17
Value
—
PnL
-$286.17
Record
52%
2057-1924 (3981)
FairValueMachineInvested
$114.98
Value
$223.16
PnL
+$108.18
Record
53%
4478-3902 (8380)
Invested
$215.88
Value
$210
PnL
-$5.88
Record
52%
787-736 (1523)
Invested
$137.48
Value
$207.5
PnL
+$70.02
Record
50%
723-710 (1433)
Invested
$184.86
Value
—
PnL
-$149.41
Record
51%
2945-2881 (5826)
Invested
$225.49
Value
—
PnL
-$225.49
Record
53%
795-703 (1498)
Invested
$181.65
Value
$312.3
PnL
+$130.65
Record
51%
4549-4406 (8955)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.2
Value
—
PnL
-$118.2
Record
52%
801-749 (1550)
ohioismInvested
$176.51
Value
$171.62
PnL
-$2.88
Record
48%
1927-2124 (4051)
machinelearnedInvested
$55.14
Value
$252.36
PnL
+$197.22
Record
46%
988-1175 (2163)
Invested
$118.04
Value
$142.49
PnL
+$24.45
Record
55%
830-672 (1502)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.2K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
THG.
Down — $3.3K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $772.14
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
gansinimen
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
Down — $504.75
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded