Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 51% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
43
Down 50%
12 arb excluded
$11.4K
$-12.2K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 43 top traders (51%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-8.1K | 55% 367-295 (662) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$20.57 | 40% 205-313 (518) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$920.68 | 51% 3131-3018 (6149) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 53.3¢ | $751.99 | — | -$711.99 | 49% 4234-4320 (8554) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 29.1¢ | $581.2 | — | -$581.2 | 46% 931-1078 (2009) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 60.9¢ | $698.69 | $720.68 | +$22.44 | 31% 625-1400 (2025) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 47.6¢ | $575.72 | — | -$510.56 | 52% 4868-4560 (9428) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 55.3¢ | $423.07 | $584.71 | +$161.64 | 44% 675-866 (1541) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 55.4¢ | $479.3 | $559.13 | +$79.83 | 46% 720-860 (1580) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $601.58 | — | -$476.12 | 54% 3222-2710 (5932) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 53.4¢ | $499.12 | $475.05 | -$24.06 | 60% 956-639 (1595) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $452.34 | $456.91 | +$4.57 | 99% 784-7 (791) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.2¢ | $461.03 | $411.73 | -$49.3 | 51% 2945-2881 (5826) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.2¢ | $247.81 | $411.73 | +$163.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.2¢ | $213.21 | — | -$213.21 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 61.9¢ | $410.74 | $366.88 | -$43.86 | 55% 4316-3542 (7858) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 42.1¢ | $213.41 | — | -$211.35 | 52% 2057-1924 (3981) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 68.7¢ | $303.04 | $237.55 | -$65.49 | 55% 830-672 (1502) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 57.6¢ | $252.23 | $236.46 | -$15.77 | 46% 988-1175 (2163) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.6¢ | $133.51 | — | -$133.51 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $118.72 | $236.46 | +$117.73 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $174.87 | $154.98 | -$19.89 | 53% 4478-3902 (8380) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.9¢ | $110.77 | — | -$110.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.4¢ | $64.1 | $154.98 | +$90.88 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 73.4¢ | $168.58 | $188.95 | +$23.24 | 53% 795-703 (1498) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 63.9¢ | $182.39 | $176.44 | -$5.95 | 45% 639-768 (1407) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $169.29 | $171 | +$1.71 | 98% 3371-72 (3443) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $117.61 | $167.85 | +$50.25 | 51% 710-691 (1401) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $130.34 | $149.31 | +$18.96 | 48% 671-720 (1391) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $69.3 | — | -$69.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.9¢ | $61.04 | $149.31 | +$88.26 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 39.8¢ | $111.95 | $90.2 | -$21.75 | 39% 694-1064 (1758) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.8¢ | $77.71 | — | -$77.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38¢ | $34.24 | $90.2 | +$55.96 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $147.32 | $151.8 | +$4.48 | 59% 904-620 (1524) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55¢ | $73.85 | — | -$73.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.4¢ | $73.47 | $151.8 | +$78.33 |
Invested
$8,954
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
55%
367-295 (662)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$20.57
Record
40%
205-313 (518)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$920.68
Record
51%
3131-3018 (6149)
Invested
$751.99
Value
—
PnL
-$711.99
Record
49%
4234-4320 (8554)
Invested
$581.2
Value
—
PnL
-$581.2
Record
46%
931-1078 (2009)
Invested
$698.69
Value
$720.68
PnL
+$22.44
Record
31%
625-1400 (2025)
Invested
$575.72
Value
—
PnL
-$510.56
Record
52%
4868-4560 (9428)
Invested
$423.07
Value
$584.71
PnL
+$161.64
Record
44%
675-866 (1541)
Invested
$479.3
Value
$559.13
PnL
+$79.83
Record
46%
720-860 (1580)
Invested
$601.58
Value
—
PnL
-$476.12
Record
54%
3222-2710 (5932)
Invested
$499.12
Value
$475.05
PnL
-$24.06
Record
60%
956-639 (1595)
Invested
$452.34
Value
$456.91
PnL
+$4.57
Record
99%
784-7 (791)
Invested
$461.03
Value
$411.73
PnL
-$49.3
Record
51%
2945-2881 (5826)
Both legs:
Invested
$410.74
Value
$366.88
PnL
-$43.86
Record
55%
4316-3542 (7858)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$213.41
Value
—
PnL
-$211.35
Record
52%
2057-1924 (3981)
Invested
$303.04
Value
$237.55
PnL
-$65.49
Record
55%
830-672 (1502)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$252.23
Value
$236.46
PnL
-$15.77
Record
46%
988-1175 (2163)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$174.87
Value
$154.98
PnL
-$19.89
Record
53%
4478-3902 (8380)
Both legs:
Invested
$168.58
Value
$188.95
PnL
+$23.24
Record
53%
795-703 (1498)
Invested
$182.39
Value
$176.44
PnL
-$5.95
Record
45%
639-768 (1407)
Invested
$169.29
Value
$171
PnL
+$1.71
Record
98%
3371-72 (3443)
Invested
$117.61
Value
$167.85
PnL
+$50.25
Record
51%
710-691 (1401)
Invested
$130.34
Value
$149.31
PnL
+$18.96
Record
48%
671-720 (1391)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$111.95
Value
$90.2
PnL
-$21.75
Record
39%
694-1064 (1758)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.32
Value
$151.8
PnL
+$4.48
Record
59%
904-620 (1524)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $720.68
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $584.71
GoodFallen
Up — $559.13
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0