Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
69
Down 66%
1 arb excluded
$11.1K
$-12.6K
Smart Money Signal
45 of 69 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%48 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.9K | 55% 367-295 (662) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 40% 205-313 (518) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$32.97 | 99% 784-7 (791) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20 | 50% 1772-1760 (3532) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 76¢ | $428.33 | $533.87 | +$105.55 | 60% 956-639 (1595) |
AL almach | Downavg 98.7¢ | $507.61 | $511.46 | +$3.85 | 50% 1296-1286 (2582) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $549.63 | $490.02 | -$10.6 | 54% 3222-2710 (5932) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 75.2¢ | $494.14 | $452.83 | -$41.31 | 55% 4316-3542 (7858) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 77.6¢ | $340.91 | $422.7 | +$81.79 | 46% 988-1175 (2163) |
BO bosona | Downavg 95.7¢ | $380.17 | $393 | +$12.83 | 51% 4549-4406 (8955) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 86.3¢ | $323.41 | $339.32 | +$15.91 | 52% 2057-1924 (3981) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $307 | $306.24 | -$0.76 | 52% 787-736 (1523) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 86.6¢ | $298.93 | $264.66 | -$34.27 | 49% 4234-4320 (8554) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 93.5¢ | $228.22 | $241.02 | +$12.8 | 49% 1282-1313 (2595) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77.9¢ | $193.4 | $223.55 | +$30.16 | 52% 4868-4560 (9428) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 84.1¢ | $198.58 | $192.73 | -$5.85 | 51% 2945-2881 (5826) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 29.1¢ | $258 | $132 | -$126 | 46% 931-1078 (2009) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87¢ | $114.84 | $132 | +$17.16 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.1¢ | $143.16 | — | -$143.16 | |
AL Alpharo28 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $149.86 | $136.66 | -$13.2 | 58% 205-151 (356) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 67.7¢ | $137.05 | $117 | -$7.75 | 44% 675-866 (1541) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 88.4¢ | $113.71 | $117.66 | +$3.95 | 53% 795-703 (1498) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 74.1¢ | $122.87 | $114.98 | +$17.31 | 46% 720-860 (1580) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 77.6¢ | $74.4 | $91.2 | +$16.79 | 59% 904-620 (1524) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 91.7¢ | $80.4 | $80 | -$0.4 | 60% 893-604 (1497) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $44.54 | $66.22 | +$21.69 | 37% 1273-2122 (3395) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 91.2¢ | $64.97 | $71.21 | +$6.24 | 60% 3476-2322 (5798) |
Invested
$8,617
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
55%
367-295 (662)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
40%
205-313 (518)
Invested
$3,264.03
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$32.97
Record
99%
784-7 (791)
Invested
$1,980
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20
Record
50%
1772-1760 (3532)
Invested
$428.33
Value
$533.87
PnL
+$105.55
Record
60%
956-639 (1595)
Invested
$507.61
Value
$511.46
PnL
+$3.85
Record
50%
1296-1286 (2582)
Invested
$549.63
Value
$490.02
PnL
-$10.6
Record
54%
3222-2710 (5932)
Invested
$494.14
Value
$452.83
PnL
-$41.31
Record
55%
4316-3542 (7858)
machinelearnedInvested
$340.91
Value
$422.7
PnL
+$81.79
Record
46%
988-1175 (2163)
Invested
$380.17
Value
$393
PnL
+$12.83
Record
51%
4549-4406 (8955)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$323.41
Value
$339.32
PnL
+$15.91
Record
52%
2057-1924 (3981)
Invested
$307
Value
$306.24
PnL
-$0.76
Record
52%
787-736 (1523)
Invested
$298.93
Value
$264.66
PnL
-$34.27
Record
49%
4234-4320 (8554)
Invested
$228.22
Value
$241.02
PnL
+$12.8
Record
49%
1282-1313 (2595)
Invested
$193.4
Value
$223.55
PnL
+$30.16
Record
52%
4868-4560 (9428)
Invested
$198.58
Value
$192.73
PnL
-$5.85
Record
51%
2945-2881 (5826)
Invested
$258
Value
$132
PnL
-$126
Record
46%
931-1078 (2009)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.86
Value
$136.66
PnL
-$13.2
Record
58%
205-151 (356)
Invested
$137.05
Value
$117
PnL
-$7.75
Record
44%
675-866 (1541)
Invested
$113.71
Value
$117.66
PnL
+$3.95
Record
53%
795-703 (1498)
Invested
$122.87
Value
$114.98
PnL
+$17.31
Record
46%
720-860 (1580)
Invested
$74.4
Value
$91.2
PnL
+$16.79
Record
59%
904-620 (1524)
Invested
$80.4
Value
$80
PnL
-$0.4
Record
60%
893-604 (1497)
Invested
$44.54
Value
$66.22
PnL
+$21.69
Record
37%
1273-2122 (3395)
Invested
$64.97
Value
$71.21
PnL
+$6.24
Record
60%
3476-2322 (5798)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.3K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $533.87
almach
Down — $511.46
ByteBadger92
Down — $490.02
stepahead
Down — $452.83
machinelearned
Down — $422.7
bosona
Down — $393