Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 58%
5 arb excluded
$13.1K
$-10.6K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 52 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.1K | 55% 359-292 (651) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.4K | +$480.65 | 39% 198-309 (507) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 55.3¢ | $707.72 | $994.44 | +$286.72 | 46% 927-1068 (1995) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$37.54 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 49.1¢ | $788.41 | $854.76 | +$71.85 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 57.5¢ | $700.69 | — | -$699.26 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 45.7¢ | $503.59 | — | -$473.43 | 44% 671-859 (1530) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 49.7¢ | $632.75 | $706.82 | +$74.07 | 55% 4306-3538 (7844) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 94.6¢ | $617.19 | $649.28 | +$32.09 | 71% 1464-597 (2061) |
AL almach | Upavg 96.9¢ | $627.81 | $553.14 | -$74.67 | 50% 1286-1280 (2566) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $413.12 | $471.97 | +$58.86 | 52% 780-732 (1512) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 95.6¢ | $448.17 | $469 | +$20.83 | 98% 3348-72 (3420) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.5¢ | $521.02 | — | -$470.23 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
BO bosona | Upavg 96.4¢ | $563.38 | $422.2 | -$141.18 | 51% 4538-4402 (8940) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 48.4¢ | $331.07 | — | -$305.79 | 46% 715-854 (1569) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 99¢ | $831.14 | $300 | -$56.3 | 49% 1276-1302 (2578) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 92.3¢ | $301.38 | $294.85 | -$6.53 | 26% 429-1212 (1641) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 76.2¢ | $308.1 | — | -$308.1 | 53% 787-700 (1487) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 53.5¢ | $496.15 | — | -$407.92 | 60% 948-636 (1584) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 86.5¢ | $412.59 | — | -$412.59 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 41¢ | $89.44 | $218.14 | +$128.7 | 51% 316-305 (621) |
 ohioism | Upavg 56.3¢ | $159.7 | $195.64 | +$36.08 | 48% 1918-2109 (4027) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Downavg 29.7¢ | $244.81 | — | -$244.81 | 45% 635-762 (1397) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 17.9¢ | $89.99 | $126 | +$36.01 | 51% 715-695 (1410) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20¢ | $25.2 | $126 | +$100.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.9¢ | $64.79 | — | -$64.79 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 58.6¢ | $142.9 | $164.91 | +$24.95 | 55% 822-669 (1491) |
Invested
$8,921
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
55%
359-292 (651)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$480.65
Record
39%
198-309 (507)
Invested
$707.72
Value
$994.44
PnL
+$286.72
Record
46%
927-1068 (1995)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$37.54
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$788.41
Value
$854.76
PnL
+$71.85
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$700.69
Value
—
PnL
-$699.26
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$503.59
Value
—
PnL
-$473.43
Record
44%
671-859 (1530)
Invested
$632.75
Value
$706.82
PnL
+$74.07
Record
55%
4306-3538 (7844)
BoneOhioInvested
$617.19
Value
$649.28
PnL
+$32.09
Record
71%
1464-597 (2061)
Invested
$627.81
Value
$553.14
PnL
-$74.67
Record
50%
1286-1280 (2566)
Invested
$413.12
Value
$471.97
PnL
+$58.86
Record
52%
780-732 (1512)
Invested
$448.17
Value
$469
PnL
+$20.83
Record
98%
3348-72 (3420)
Invested
$521.02
Value
—
PnL
-$470.23
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Invested
$563.38
Value
$422.2
PnL
-$141.18
Record
51%
4538-4402 (8940)
Invested
$331.07
Value
—
PnL
-$305.79
Record
46%
715-854 (1569)
Invested
$831.14
Value
$300
PnL
-$56.3
Record
49%
1276-1302 (2578)
NIULAI4Invested
$301.38
Value
$294.85
PnL
-$6.53
Record
26%
429-1212 (1641)
Invested
$308.1
Value
—
PnL
-$308.1
Record
53%
787-700 (1487)
Invested
$496.15
Value
—
PnL
-$407.92
Record
60%
948-636 (1584)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$412.59
Value
—
PnL
-$412.59
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$89.44
Value
$218.14
PnL
+$128.7
Record
51%
316-305 (621)
ohioismInvested
$159.7
Value
$195.64
PnL
+$36.08
Record
48%
1918-2109 (4027)
Invested
$244.81
Value
—
PnL
-$244.81
Record
45%
635-762 (1397)
Invested
$89.99
Value
$126
PnL
+$36.01
Record
51%
715-695 (1410)
Both legs:
Invested
$142.9
Value
$164.91
PnL
+$24.95
Record
55%
822-669 (1491)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.4K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $994.44
soswald1
Up — $950
asdcaxz
Up — $854.76
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $706.82
BoneOhio
Up — $649.28
almach
Up — $553.14