Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Up 70%
5 arb excluded
$18.1K
$-8.1K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 54 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.9K | 55% 359-292 (651) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.3K | +$349.85 | 39% 198-309 (507) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 75.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$1.96 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 86¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$70.9 | 46% 927-1068 (1995) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 77.1¢ | $999.01 | $950.41 | -$48.6 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
BO bosona | Upavg 80.2¢ | $723.97 | $902.53 | +$178.56 | 51% 4538-4402 (8940) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 90.8¢ | $965 | $836.33 | -$128.68 | 26% 429-1212 (1641) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 93.9¢ | $727.32 | $751.03 | +$23.71 | 49% 1276-1302 (2578) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 91.9¢ | $634.16 | $622.9 | -$10.5 | 52% 780-732 (1512) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 66.5¢ | $538.63 | $565.1 | +$26.47 | 55% 4306-3538 (7844) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 71.2¢ | $518.85 | $521.18 | +$2.33 | 60% 948-636 (1584) |
AL almach | Upavg 94.5¢ | $531.28 | $504.41 | -$26.87 | 50% 1286-1280 (2566) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 79.6¢ | $500.52 | $521.89 | +$21.36 | 53% 787-700 (1487) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 91.7¢ | $448.8 | $489.54 | +$40.74 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $552.07 | $485.39 | +$4.63 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 91¢ | $508.5 | $522.58 | +$14.09 | 45% 635-762 (1397) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 77.5¢ | $417.28 | $458.17 | +$40.9 | 45% 979-1173 (2152) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 69¢ | $412.12 | $423.06 | +$10.94 | 44% 671-859 (1530) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 68.5¢ | $355.88 | $377.74 | +$22.36 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $281.44 | $288.64 | +$7.2 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.3¢ | $200.04 | $288.64 | +$88.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.5¢ | $81.4 | — | -$81.4 | |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 93.5¢ | $312.15 | $293.95 | -$18.19 | 55% 822-669 (1491) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 21.7¢ | $271.13 | — | -$271.13 | 46% 715-854 (1569) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 9.7¢ | $80.55 | $57.87 | -$22.68 | 50% 1753-1753 (3506) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 9.7¢ | $51.17 | — | -$51.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.8¢ | $29.37 | $57.87 | +$28.49 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Upavg 83.3¢ | $166.9 | $136.49 | -$30.41 | 48% 666-714 (1380) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 83.3¢ | $113.71 | $136.49 | +$22.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31¢ | $53.19 | — | -$53.19 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 93¢ | $151.07 | $126 | -$25.07 | 51% 715-695 (1410) |
Invested
$8,652
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
55%
359-292 (651)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$349.85
Record
39%
198-309 (507)
Invested
$1,478.76
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$1.96
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$1,247.95
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$70.9
Record
46%
927-1068 (1995)
Invested
$999.01
Value
$950.41
PnL
-$48.6
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$723.97
Value
$902.53
PnL
+$178.56
Record
51%
4538-4402 (8940)
NIULAI4Invested
$965
Value
$836.33
PnL
-$128.68
Record
26%
429-1212 (1641)
Invested
$727.32
Value
$751.03
PnL
+$23.71
Record
49%
1276-1302 (2578)
Invested
$634.16
Value
$622.9
PnL
-$10.5
Record
52%
780-732 (1512)
Invested
$538.63
Value
$565.1
PnL
+$26.47
Record
55%
4306-3538 (7844)
Invested
$518.85
Value
$521.18
PnL
+$2.33
Record
60%
948-636 (1584)
Invested
$531.28
Value
$504.41
PnL
-$26.87
Record
50%
1286-1280 (2566)
Invested
$500.52
Value
$521.89
PnL
+$21.36
Record
53%
787-700 (1487)
Invested
$448.8
Value
$489.54
PnL
+$40.74
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)
Invested
$552.07
Value
$485.39
PnL
+$4.63
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Invested
$508.5
Value
$522.58
PnL
+$14.09
Record
45%
635-762 (1397)
machinelearnedInvested
$417.28
Value
$458.17
PnL
+$40.9
Record
45%
979-1173 (2152)
Invested
$412.12
Value
$423.06
PnL
+$10.94
Record
44%
671-859 (1530)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$355.88
Value
$377.74
PnL
+$22.36
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$281.44
Value
$288.64
PnL
+$7.2
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Both legs:
Invested
$312.15
Value
$293.95
PnL
-$18.19
Record
55%
822-669 (1491)
Invested
$271.13
Value
—
PnL
-$271.13
Record
46%
715-854 (1569)
Invested
$80.55
Value
$57.87
PnL
-$22.68
Record
50%
1753-1753 (3506)
Both legs:
Invested
$166.9
Value
$136.49
PnL
-$30.41
Record
48%
666-714 (1380)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.07
Value
$126
PnL
-$25.07
Record
51%
715-695 (1410)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.3K
blue.birds
Up — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.3K
asdcaxz
Up — $950.41
bosona
Up — $902.53
NIULAI4
Up — $836.33
mo-money
Up — $751.03
EZTRADENL2
Up — $622.9
stepahead
Up — $565.1