Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
57
Up 42%
$7.3K
$-13.6K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 57 top traders (42%)24 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.0K | 55% 359-292 (651) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 39% 198-309 (507) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$15.6 | 50% 1753-1753 (3506) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$881.46 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 78.5¢ | $602.47 | $587.45 | -$15.02 | 55% 4306-3538 (7844) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 81.9¢ | $477.52 | $565.13 | +$87.61 | 45% 979-1173 (2152) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53¢ | $570.74 | $490.21 | +$5.46 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 89.1¢ | $462.63 | $456.89 | -$5.74 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 83.7¢ | $414.25 | $409.64 | -$4.61 | 31% 622-1392 (2014) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 79.4¢ | $387.15 | $372.7 | -$13.12 | 60% 948-636 (1584) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74.3¢ | $355.78 | $339.99 | -$15.79 | 44% 671-859 (1530) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $309.54 | $309.01 | -$0.53 | 52% 780-732 (1512) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $260.96 | $242 | -$18.96 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 79.7¢ | $235.57 | $192.86 | +$30.68 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 78.8¢ | $150.88 | $188.55 | +$37.67 | 55% 822-669 (1491) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 62.5¢ | $157.03 | $157.68 | +$0.64 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 79.1¢ | $115.31 | $140 | +$24.69 | 58% 878-623 (1501) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 70.6¢ | $141.96 | $132.68 | -$9.27 | 46% 927-1068 (1995) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 81.3¢ | $101.63 | $124.03 | +$22.4 | 59% 896-617 (1513) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 83.9¢ | $105.52 | $122.87 | +$17.35 | 59% 883-603 (1486) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $113.39 | $113 | -$0.39 | 50% 718-705 (1423) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 83¢ | $112.69 | $103 | -$9.69 | 53% 787-700 (1487) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 75.4¢ | $86.2 | $101.59 | +$15.39 | 45% 635-762 (1397) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 80.9¢ | $90.42 | $104.86 | +$14.43 | 46% 715-854 (1569) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $77.07 | $73.33 | -$3.73 | 53% 4472-3897 (8369) |
Invested
$8,877
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
55%
359-292 (651)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
39%
198-309 (507)
Invested
$1,544.4
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$15.6
Record
50%
1753-1753 (3506)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$881.46
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$602.47
Value
$587.45
PnL
-$15.02
Record
55%
4306-3538 (7844)
machinelearnedInvested
$477.52
Value
$565.13
PnL
+$87.61
Record
45%
979-1173 (2152)
Invested
$570.74
Value
$490.21
PnL
+$5.46
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Invested
$462.63
Value
$456.89
PnL
-$5.74
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$414.25
Value
$409.64
PnL
-$4.61
Record
31%
622-1392 (2014)
Invested
$387.15
Value
$372.7
PnL
-$13.12
Record
60%
948-636 (1584)
Invested
$355.78
Value
$339.99
PnL
-$15.79
Record
44%
671-859 (1530)
Invested
$309.54
Value
$309.01
PnL
-$0.53
Record
52%
780-732 (1512)
Invested
$260.96
Value
$242
PnL
-$18.96
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Invested
$235.57
Value
$192.86
PnL
+$30.68
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$150.88
Value
$188.55
PnL
+$37.67
Record
55%
822-669 (1491)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$157.03
Value
$157.68
PnL
+$0.64
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$115.31
Value
$140
PnL
+$24.69
Record
58%
878-623 (1501)
Invested
$141.96
Value
$132.68
PnL
-$9.27
Record
46%
927-1068 (1995)
Invested
$101.63
Value
$124.03
PnL
+$22.4
Record
59%
896-617 (1513)
Invested
$105.52
Value
$122.87
PnL
+$17.35
Record
59%
883-603 (1486)
Invested
$113.39
Value
$113
PnL
-$0.39
Record
50%
718-705 (1423)
Invested
$112.69
Value
$103
PnL
-$9.69
Record
53%
787-700 (1487)
Invested
$86.2
Value
$101.59
PnL
+$15.39
Record
45%
635-762 (1397)
Invested
$90.42
Value
$104.86
PnL
+$14.43
Record
46%
715-854 (1569)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$77.07
Value
$73.33
PnL
-$3.73
Record
53%
4472-3897 (8369)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.6K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $587.45
machinelearned
Down — $565.13
ByteBadger92
Down — $490.21
asdcaxz
Down — $456.89
ply-pm0
Down — $409.64
Bonereaper
Down — $372.7