Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
46
Down 65%
$13.7K
$-5.4K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 46 top traders (65%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $8.6K | +$42.31 | 55% 359-292 (651) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 39% 198-309 (507) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$918.35 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 84.7¢ | $537.07 | $534.04 | -$3.03 | 46% 927-1068 (1995) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $559.73 | $496.12 | +$2.16 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 82.2¢ | $345.2 | $419.71 | +$74.51 | 45% 979-1173 (2152) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 64.1¢ | $349.76 | $410.75 | +$61 | 60% 948-636 (1584) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 85.4¢ | $383.32 | $359.24 | -$24.08 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 86.4¢ | $325.48 | $345.88 | +$20.39 | 52% 780-732 (1512) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 66.5¢ | $289.03 | $283.22 | -$3.58 | 44% 671-859 (1530) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.2¢ | $264.28 | $257.6 | -$6.68 | 55% 4306-3538 (7844) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 83.4¢ | $230.25 | $232.12 | +$1.87 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $221.17 | $208 | -$13.17 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
AL almach | Downavg 97¢ | $163.98 | $167.33 | +$3.35 | 50% 1286-1280 (2566) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 89¢ | $163.28 | $169.67 | +$6.39 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 82.1¢ | $141.66 | $140.24 | +$0.58 | 46% 715-854 (1569) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 67.8¢ | $108.59 | $139 | +$34.15 | 53% 4472-3897 (8369) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $112.04 | $131.24 | +$19.2 | 50% 718-705 (1423) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 85.5¢ | $118.99 | $118.26 | +$3.21 | 55% 822-669 (1491) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 77.1¢ | $87.13 | $111.23 | +$24.1 | 59% 883-603 (1486) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 81.3¢ | $98.19 | $112.09 | +$13.9 | 59% 896-617 (1513) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $74.98 | $96.67 | +$21.69 | 53% 787-700 (1487) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $79.2 | $81.32 | +$10.54 | 57% 198-147 (345) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $74.5 | — | -$74.5 | 50% 719-722 (1441) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Downavg 72.5¢ | $58.91 | $63 | +$4.1 | 45% 635-762 (1397) |
Invested
$8,982
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$42.31
Record
55%
359-292 (651)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
39%
198-309 (507)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$918.35
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$537.07
Value
$534.04
PnL
-$3.03
Record
46%
927-1068 (1995)
Invested
$559.73
Value
$496.12
PnL
+$2.16
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
machinelearnedInvested
$345.2
Value
$419.71
PnL
+$74.51
Record
45%
979-1173 (2152)
Invested
$349.76
Value
$410.75
PnL
+$61
Record
60%
948-636 (1584)
Invested
$383.32
Value
$359.24
PnL
-$24.08
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$325.48
Value
$345.88
PnL
+$20.39
Record
52%
780-732 (1512)
Invested
$289.03
Value
$283.22
PnL
-$3.58
Record
44%
671-859 (1530)
Invested
$264.28
Value
$257.6
PnL
-$6.68
Record
55%
4306-3538 (7844)
Invested
$230.25
Value
$232.12
PnL
+$1.87
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$221.17
Value
$208
PnL
-$13.17
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Invested
$163.98
Value
$167.33
PnL
+$3.35
Record
50%
1286-1280 (2566)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$163.28
Value
$169.67
PnL
+$6.39
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$141.66
Value
$140.24
PnL
+$0.58
Record
46%
715-854 (1569)
FairValueMachineInvested
$108.59
Value
$139
PnL
+$34.15
Record
53%
4472-3897 (8369)
Invested
$112.04
Value
$131.24
PnL
+$19.2
Record
50%
718-705 (1423)
Invested
$118.99
Value
$118.26
PnL
+$3.21
Record
55%
822-669 (1491)
Invested
$87.13
Value
$111.23
PnL
+$24.1
Record
59%
883-603 (1486)
Invested
$98.19
Value
$112.09
PnL
+$13.9
Record
59%
896-617 (1513)
Invested
$74.98
Value
$96.67
PnL
+$21.69
Record
53%
787-700 (1487)
Invested
$79.2
Value
$81.32
PnL
+$10.54
Record
57%
198-147 (345)
Invested
$74.5
Value
—
PnL
-$74.5
Record
50%
719-722 (1441)
Invested
$58.91
Value
$63
PnL
+$4.1
Record
45%
635-762 (1397)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $534.04
ByteBadger92
Down — $496.12
machinelearned
Down — $419.71
Bonereaper
Down — $410.75
asdcaxz
Down — $359.24
EZTRADENL2
Down — $345.88
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $283.22