Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Down 44%
3 arb excluded
$6.6K
$-14.6K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 55 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.1K | 55% 359-292 (651) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 39% 198-309 (507) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.26 | 99% 778-7 (785) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 28.8¢ | $430.92 | $1.0K | +$577.48 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.8¢ | $290.4 | $1.0K | +$718 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67¢ | $140.52 | — | -$140.52 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.4¢ | $527.09 | — | -$498.05 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
BO bosona | Upavg 98¢ | $595.87 | $387.44 | -$208.43 | 51% 4538-4402 (8940) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 64.6¢ | $351.87 | $363.73 | +$11.86 | 60% 948-636 (1584) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 60.3¢ | $348.45 | $357.5 | +$9.05 | 55% 4306-3538 (7844) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 55.5¢ | $293.41 | $318.28 | +$24.87 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 55.8¢ | $284.97 | $276.31 | -$8.67 | 44% 671-859 (1530) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 59.6¢ | $251.73 | $285.19 | +$33.46 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 49.1¢ | $302.25 | — | -$302.25 | 51% 715-695 (1410) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 44.2¢ | $371.62 | — | -$256.5 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 65¢ | $257.12 | $224.88 | -$32.24 | 31% 622-1392 (2014) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 33.2¢ | $137.33 | $206.98 | +$112.85 | 46% 715-854 (1569) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 85.3¢ | $201.52 | $189 | -$12.52 | 45% 635-762 (1397) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $208.64 | $174.7 | -$33.94 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 55.7¢ | $216.18 | — | -$216.18 | 55% 822-669 (1491) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 53.4¢ | $105.14 | $196.93 | +$91.78 | 50% 1753-1753 (3506) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 88.2¢ | $175 | $145.31 | -$29.69 | 52% 780-732 (1512) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 32.7¢ | $108.4 | $107.94 | -$0.46 | 53% 4472-3897 (8369) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.1¢ | $48.64 | $107.94 | +$59.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.7¢ | $59.76 | — | -$59.76 | |
SP spartacray | Upavg 75.3¢ | $115.79 | $115.83 | +$0.04 | 58% 878-623 (1501) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Downavg 65.6¢ | $250.48 | — | -$246.68 | 51% 316-305 (621) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 48.8¢ | $73.46 | $143.62 | +$70.15 | 53% 787-700 (1487) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 72.5¢ | $88.58 | $103.15 | +$14.57 | 59% 896-617 (1513) |
Invested
$8,596
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
55%
359-292 (651)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
39%
198-309 (507)
Invested
$1,313.07
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.26
Record
99%
778-7 (785)
Invested
$430.92
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$577.48
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)
Both legs:
Invested
$527.09
Value
—
PnL
-$498.05
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Invested
$595.87
Value
$387.44
PnL
-$208.43
Record
51%
4538-4402 (8940)
Invested
$351.87
Value
$363.73
PnL
+$11.86
Record
60%
948-636 (1584)
Invested
$348.45
Value
$357.5
PnL
+$9.05
Record
55%
4306-3538 (7844)
Invested
$293.41
Value
$318.28
PnL
+$24.87
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$284.97
Value
$276.31
PnL
-$8.67
Record
44%
671-859 (1530)
Invested
$251.73
Value
$285.19
PnL
+$33.46
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$302.25
Value
—
PnL
-$302.25
Record
51%
715-695 (1410)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$371.62
Value
—
PnL
-$256.5
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$257.12
Value
$224.88
PnL
-$32.24
Record
31%
622-1392 (2014)
Invested
$137.33
Value
$206.98
PnL
+$112.85
Record
46%
715-854 (1569)
Invested
$201.52
Value
$189
PnL
-$12.52
Record
45%
635-762 (1397)
Invested
$208.64
Value
$174.7
PnL
-$33.94
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Invested
$216.18
Value
—
PnL
-$216.18
Record
55%
822-669 (1491)
Invested
$105.14
Value
$196.93
PnL
+$91.78
Record
50%
1753-1753 (3506)
Invested
$175
Value
$145.31
PnL
-$29.69
Record
52%
780-732 (1512)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$108.4
Value
$107.94
PnL
-$0.46
Record
53%
4472-3897 (8369)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.79
Value
$115.83
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
878-623 (1501)
Invested
$250.48
Value
—
PnL
-$246.68
Record
51%
316-305 (621)
Invested
$73.46
Value
$143.62
PnL
+$70.15
Record
53%
787-700 (1487)
Invested
$88.58
Value
$103.15
PnL
+$14.57
Record
59%
896-617 (1513)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $1.3K
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $387.44
Bonereaper
Up — $363.73
stepahead
Up — $357.5
asdcaxz
Up — $318.28
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $276.31