Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$-12.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

36 of 54 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,514

Combined PnL$-12.5K

Down36 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares13,271

Combined PnL+$58.21

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-7.7K	55% 359-292 (651)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$22.98	51% 1292-1224 (2516)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.4K	39% 198-309 (507)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 64¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$78.98	50% 2066-2059 (4125)
MO mo-money	Downavg 97¢	$565.44	$547.45	-$17.98	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$564.31	$489.56	+$2.13	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$247.7	$489.56	+$252.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$246.84	—	-$250.81
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 71.8¢	$484.67	$458.06	-$26.61	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 64.7¢	$376.11	$453.67	+$77.56	60% 948-636 (1584)
BO bosona	Downavg 84.5¢	$413.21	$362.3	-$50.91	51% 4538-4402 (8940)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 59.5¢	$285.66	$328.51	+$42.85	44% 671-859 (1530)
machinelearned	Downavg 66¢	$267.07	$306.43	+$39.36	45% 979-1173 (2152)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 80.7¢	$282.09	$254.32	+$20.73	52% 4851-4544 (9395)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 75.1¢	$236.23	$211.29	-$24.94	50% 4218-4300 (8518)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 64.6¢	$205.92	$212.33	+$6.41	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
ST stepahead	Downavg 64.4¢	$217.83	$207.02	-$10.81	55% 4306-3538 (7844)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 64.4¢	$165.59	$194.22	+$28.63	39% 689-1061 (1750)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 73.4¢	$242.42	$170.77	-$62.45	46% 715-854 (1569)
BoneOhio	Downavg 71¢	$107.5	$150	+$42.5	71% 1464-597 (2061)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$157.59	$160.56	+$2.97	50% 1753-1753 (3506)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$111.5	$160.56	+$49.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.2¢	$46.09	—	-$46.09
FairValueMachine	Downavg 72.2¢	$176.3	$135	-$41.3	53% 4472-3897 (8369)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 55.7¢	$98.16	$149.09	+$50.93	51% 704-686 (1390)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 78.3¢	$123.58	$132.31	+$8.74	50% 702-704 (1406)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 77.1¢	$121.11	$132.08	+$10.97	53% 787-700 (1487)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 89.4¢	$203.54	$119.35	-$84.19	55% 822-669 (1491)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99.4¢	$121.22	$121.93	+$0.71	48% 1372-1476 (2848)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,913

Value

—

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

55%

359-292 (651)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$6,658.71

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$22.98

Record

51%

1292-1224 (2516)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

39%

198-309 (507)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,086.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$78.98

Record

50%

2066-2059 (4125)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$565.44

Value

$547.45

PnL

-$17.98

Record

49%

1276-1302 (2578)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$564.31

Value

$489.56

PnL

+$2.13

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

Both legs:

Down$247.750.6¢+$252.94

Up$246.8448.8¢-$250.81

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$484.67

Value

$458.06

PnL

-$26.61

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$376.11

Value

$453.67

PnL

+$77.56

Record

60%

948-636 (1584)

bosona

Down

Invested

$413.21

Value

$362.3

PnL

-$50.91

Record

51%

4538-4402 (8940)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$285.66

Value

$328.51

PnL

+$42.85

Record

44%

671-859 (1530)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$267.07

Value

$306.43

PnL

+$39.36

Record

45%

979-1173 (2152)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$282.09

Value

$254.32

PnL

+$20.73

Record

52%

4851-4544 (9395)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$236.23

Value

$211.29

PnL

-$24.94

Record

50%

4218-4300 (8518)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$205.92

Value

$212.33

PnL

+$6.41

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$217.83

Value

$207.02

PnL

-$10.81

Record

55%

4306-3538 (7844)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$165.59

Value

$194.22

PnL

+$28.63

Record

39%

689-1061 (1750)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$242.42

Value

$170.77

PnL

-$62.45

Record

46%

715-854 (1569)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$107.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$42.5

Record

71%

1464-597 (2061)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$157.59

Value

$160.56

PnL

+$2.97

Record

50%

1753-1753 (3506)

Both legs:

Down$111.569.4¢+$49.06

Up$46.0939.2¢-$46.09

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$176.3

Value

$135

PnL

-$41.3

Record

53%

4472-3897 (8369)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$98.16

Value

$149.09

PnL

+$50.93

Record

51%

704-686 (1390)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$123.58

Value

$132.31

PnL

+$8.74

Record

50%

702-704 (1406)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$121.11

Value

$132.08

PnL

+$10.97

Record

53%

787-700 (1487)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$203.54

Value

$119.35

PnL

-$84.19

Record

55%

822-669 (1491)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$121.22

Value

$121.93

PnL

+$0.71

Record

48%

1372-1476 (2848)

Smart Money Signal

Down

36 of 54 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2ff66f65...69fb5c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794651000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-7.7K

0x50f7

Down — $6.6K

-$22.98

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Up — $0

$-4.4K

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.1K

+$78.98

mo-money

Down — $547.45

-$17.98

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.13

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $458.06

-$26.61

Bonereaper

Down — $453.67

+$77.56

bosona

Down — $362.3

-$50.91

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $328.51

+$42.85

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