Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$14.7K
$-5.0K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 48 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.5K | -$21.63 | 55% 359-292 (651) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 39% 198-309 (507) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.8¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$5.26 | 51% 1292-1224 (2516) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.6¢ | $521.09 | $495.89 | +$1.41 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $443.47 | $448 | +$4.53 | 98% 3348-72 (3420) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 72.7¢ | $316.15 | $337.28 | +$27.93 | 60% 948-636 (1584) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.8¢ | $242.85 | $299.13 | +$56.28 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 82.2¢ | $228.89 | $213.12 | -$15.76 | 44% 671-859 (1530) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 73.5¢ | $149.8 | $200 | +$52 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.6¢ | $153.85 | $153.75 | -$0.1 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 99¢ | $131.01 | $131 | -$0.01 | 38% 1297-2123 (3420) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 63.3¢ | $110.15 | $97.49 | -$12.66 | 55% 4306-3538 (7844) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 76.9¢ | $80.74 | $91.69 | +$10.95 | 52% 780-732 (1512) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $91.49 | $86.62 | -$4.88 | 31% 622-1392 (2014) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 78¢ | $81.67 | $104.65 | +$22.98 | 53% 787-700 (1487) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $68.8 | $81.61 | +$12.96 | 52% 797-743 (1540) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 58.4¢ | $71.12 | $80 | +$8.88 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $63.56 | — | -$63.56 | 51% 4538-4402 (8940) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 27.7¢ | $103.55 | — | -$103.55 | 46% 927-1068 (1995) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 98.7¢ | $48.36 | $49 | +$0.64 | 52% 2466-2274 (4740) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 33.2¢ | $53.14 | $30 | -$23.14 | 46% 715-854 (1569) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77¢ | $23.1 | $30 | +$6.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.2¢ | $30.04 | — | -$30.04 | |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $26.4 | $40.09 | +$13.69 | 58% 4921-3591 (8512) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $39.66 | $38.02 | -$1.64 | 51% 715-695 (1410) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $35.25 | — | -$35.25 | 50% 3777-3729 (7506) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $32.9 | — | -$32.9 | 53% 4472-3897 (8369) |
Invested
$8,861
Value
$8.5K
PnL
-$21.63
Record
55%
359-292 (651)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
39%
198-309 (507)
Invested
$3,002.75
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$5.26
Record
51%
1292-1224 (2516)
Invested
$521.09
Value
$495.89
PnL
+$1.41
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Invested
$443.47
Value
$448
PnL
+$4.53
Record
98%
3348-72 (3420)
Invested
$316.15
Value
$337.28
PnL
+$27.93
Record
60%
948-636 (1584)
Invested
$242.85
Value
$299.13
PnL
+$56.28
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$228.89
Value
$213.12
PnL
-$15.76
Record
44%
671-859 (1530)
Invested
$149.8
Value
$200
PnL
+$52
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$153.85
Value
$153.75
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$131.01
Value
$131
PnL
-$0.01
Record
38%
1297-2123 (3420)
Invested
$110.15
Value
$97.49
PnL
-$12.66
Record
55%
4306-3538 (7844)
Invested
$80.74
Value
$91.69
PnL
+$10.95
Record
52%
780-732 (1512)
Invested
$91.49
Value
$86.62
PnL
-$4.88
Record
31%
622-1392 (2014)
Invested
$81.67
Value
$104.65
PnL
+$22.98
Record
53%
787-700 (1487)
Invested
$68.8
Value
$81.61
PnL
+$12.96
Record
52%
797-743 (1540)
Invested
$71.12
Value
$80
PnL
+$8.88
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Invested
$63.56
Value
—
PnL
-$63.56
Record
51%
4538-4402 (8940)
Invested
$103.55
Value
—
PnL
-$103.55
Record
46%
927-1068 (1995)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$48.36
Value
$49
PnL
+$0.64
Record
52%
2466-2274 (4740)
Invested
$53.14
Value
$30
PnL
-$23.14
Record
46%
715-854 (1569)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.4
Value
$40.09
PnL
+$13.69
Record
58%
4921-3591 (8512)
Invested
$39.66
Value
$38.02
PnL
-$1.64
Record
51%
715-695 (1410)
Invested
$35.25
Value
—
PnL
-$35.25
Record
50%
3777-3729 (7506)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$32.9
Value
—
PnL
-$32.9
Record
53%
4472-3897 (8369)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.5K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
ByteBadger92
Down — $495.89
hoodquant
Down — $448
Bonereaper
Down — $337.28
blue.birds
Down — $299.13
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $213.12
asdcaxz
Down — $200
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $153.75