Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.4K

Combined PnL

$-6.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 45 top traders (64%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down29 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares15,598

Combined PnL+$255.06

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,074

Combined PnL$-6.3K

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.0K	-$8.08	55% 359-292 (651)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	39% 198-309 (507)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 70.1¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$377.78	50% 2066-2059 (4125)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.1¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$439.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.6¢	$817.18	—	-$817.18
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 65.5¢	$847.67	$858.21	+$10.54	44% 671-859 (1530)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 56.3¢	$709.64	$722.2	+$12.57	60% 948-636 (1584)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 65.3¢	$715.79	$726.16	+$10.37	52% 4851-4544 (9395)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 67.7¢	$773.72	$668.95	-$74.67	50% 4218-4300 (8518)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 61.2¢	$582.08	$588.73	+$35.35	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 46.3¢	$578.17	—	-$483.84	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 67.4¢	$429.57	$453.38	+$47.74	46% 715-854 (1569)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 51.3¢	$569.24	$385.73	+$120.59	31% 622-1392 (2014)
ST stepahead	Downavg 58.7¢	$344.1	$354.07	+$9.98	55% 4306-3538 (7844)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 25.8¢	$372.75	$299.29	-$73.46	46% 927-1068 (1995)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$177.56	$299.29	+$121.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.8¢	$195.19	—	-$195.19
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 83.6¢	$329.69	$339.04	+$9.36	52% 780-732 (1512)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74.6¢	$335.58	$307.66	-$27.92	53% 787-700 (1487)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 65¢	$305.47	$300.1	-$2.61	53% 4472-3897 (8369)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 78¢	$280.59	$298.09	+$17.5	55% 822-669 (1491)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 41.2¢	$356.88	$187	-$169.88	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$220.37	—	-$220.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$136.51	$187	+$50.49
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 54.9¢	$262.9	$279.98	+$17.07	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$153.59	$279.98	+$126.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.6¢	$109.31	—	-$109.31
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 73.4¢	$249.56	$257.43	+$7.87	51% 715-695 (1410)
OhioAI	Downavg 57.2¢	$237.3	$233.16	+$4.26	50% 689-681 (1370)
NIULAI4	Downavg 87.4¢	$257.8	$179.44	-$78.37	26% 429-1212 (1641)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 85¢	$228.62	$160	-$68.62	45% 979-1173 (2152)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$136	$160	+$24
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.2¢	$92.62	—	-$92.62
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 55.2¢	$304.84	—	-$304.84	51% 4538-4402 (8940)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$136.87	$171.2	+$34.34	52% 797-743 (1540)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$95.74	$171.2	+$75.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$41.12	—	-$41.12

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,698

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$8.08

Record

55%

359-292 (651)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

39%

198-309 (507)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,846.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$377.78

Record

50%

2066-2059 (4125)

Both legs:

Down$1,029.370.1¢+$439.4

Up$817.1827.6¢-$817.18

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$847.67

Value

$858.21

PnL

+$10.54

Record

44%

671-859 (1530)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$709.64

Value

$722.2

PnL

+$12.57

Record

60%

948-636 (1584)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$715.79

Value

$726.16

PnL

+$10.37

Record

52%

4851-4544 (9395)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$773.72

Value

$668.95

PnL

-$74.67

Record

50%

4218-4300 (8518)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$582.08

Value

$588.73

PnL

+$35.35

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$578.17

Value

—

PnL

-$483.84

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$429.57

Value

$453.38

PnL

+$47.74

Record

46%

715-854 (1569)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$569.24

Value

$385.73

PnL

+$120.59

Record

31%

622-1392 (2014)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$344.1

Value

$354.07

PnL

+$9.98

Record

55%

4306-3538 (7844)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$372.75

Value

$299.29

PnL

-$73.46

Record

46%

927-1068 (1995)

Both legs:

Down$177.5659.3¢+$121.73

Up$195.1925.8¢-$195.19

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$329.69

Value

$339.04

PnL

+$9.36

Record

52%

780-732 (1512)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$335.58

Value

$307.66

PnL

-$27.92

Record

53%

787-700 (1487)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$305.47

Value

$300.1

PnL

-$2.61

Record

53%

4472-3897 (8369)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$280.59

Value

$298.09

PnL

+$17.5

Record

55%

822-669 (1491)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$356.88

Value

$187

PnL

-$169.88

Record

49%

1276-1302 (2578)

Both legs:

Up$220.3741.2¢-$220.37

Down$136.5173¢+$50.49

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$262.9

Value

$279.98

PnL

+$17.07

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

Both legs:

Down$153.5954.9¢+$126.39

Up$109.3147.6¢-$109.31

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$249.56

Value

$257.43

PnL

+$7.87

Record

51%

715-695 (1410)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$237.3

Value

$233.16

PnL

+$4.26

Record

50%

689-681 (1370)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$257.8

Value

$179.44

PnL

-$78.37

Record

26%

429-1212 (1641)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$228.62

Value

$160

PnL

-$68.62

Record

45%

979-1173 (2152)

Both legs:

Down$13685¢+$24

Up$92.6231.2¢-$92.62

bosonaCTR

Invested

$304.84

Value

—

PnL

-$304.84

Record

51%

4538-4402 (8940)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$136.87

Value

$171.2

PnL

+$34.34

Record

52%

797-743 (1540)

Both legs:

Down$95.7455.9¢+$75.46

Up$41.1234.9¢-$41.12

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 45 top traders (64%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x08aec4bd...486d4a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794650400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.0K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $858.21

+$10.54

Bonereaper

Down — $722.2

+$12.57

blue.birds

Down — $726.16

+$10.37

asdcaxz

Down — $668.95

-$74.67

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $588.73

+$35.35

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$483.84

GoodFallen

Down — $453.38

+$47.74

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