Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
49
Down 63%
5 arb excluded
$12.1K
$-9.6K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 49 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-7.7K | 55% 359-292 (651) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$6.33 | 39% 198-309 (507) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$24.15 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 39.2¢ | $564.17 | — | -$564.17 | 55% 4306-3538 (7844) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 64.2¢ | $548.69 | $559.47 | +$10.78 | 44% 671-859 (1530) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $540.45 | $486.81 | +$0.84 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $252.51 | — | -$248.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.6¢ | $236.61 | $486.81 | +$249.68 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 89.3¢ | $555.34 | $493.18 | -$58.76 | 49% 1276-1302 (2578) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 72.3¢ | $367.09 | $448.07 | +$85.8 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
AL almach | Downavg 77.9¢ | $1.3K | $500 | -$122.6 | 50% 1286-1280 (2566) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 43¢ | $707.75 | — | -$704.15 | 60% 948-636 (1584) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 61.2¢ | $440.47 | $389.5 | -$50.57 | 46% 927-1068 (1995) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 35.5¢ | $339.89 | — | -$339.89 | 31% 622-1392 (2014) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 44¢ | $289.3 | $368.89 | +$79.59 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $376.88 | $362.96 | -$13.92 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 60.7¢ | $271.83 | $361.76 | +$89.93 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 37.8¢ | $330.73 | $210.16 | -$120.57 | 46% 715-854 (1569) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.8¢ | $129.87 | $210.16 | +$80.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.8¢ | $200.86 | — | -$200.86 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 70.8¢ | $189.38 | $233.4 | +$44.03 | 53% 4472-3897 (8369) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $165.53 | $169.47 | +$3.94 | 45% 979-1173 (2152) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.6¢ | $104.52 | — | -$104.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36¢ | $61.01 | $169.47 | +$108.46 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 78.9¢ | $205.77 | $211.44 | +$5.67 | 51% 4538-4402 (8940) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 70¢ | $181.88 | $178.98 | -$2.91 | 52% 780-732 (1512) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 90.6¢ | $176.08 | $145.31 | -$30.77 | 53% 787-700 (1487) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 55.6¢ | $118.54 | $183.77 | +$65.23 | 51% 704-686 (1390) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 53¢ | $92.62 | $154 | +$61.38 | 50% 1753-1753 (3506) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $90.09 | $89.64 | -$0.45 | 59% 896-617 (1513) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 93.6¢ | $116.92 | $78.41 | -$38.51 | 45% 635-762 (1397) |
Invested
$8,508
Value
—
PnL
$-7.7K
Record
55%
359-292 (651)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$6.33
Record
39%
198-309 (507)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$24.15
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$564.17
Value
—
PnL
-$564.17
Record
55%
4306-3538 (7844)
Invested
$548.69
Value
$559.47
PnL
+$10.78
Record
44%
671-859 (1530)
Invested
$540.45
Value
$486.81
PnL
+$0.84
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Both legs:
Invested
$555.34
Value
$493.18
PnL
-$58.76
Record
49%
1276-1302 (2578)
Invested
$367.09
Value
$448.07
PnL
+$85.8
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$1,300.48
Value
$500
PnL
-$122.6
Record
50%
1286-1280 (2566)
Invested
$707.75
Value
—
PnL
-$704.15
Record
60%
948-636 (1584)
Invested
$440.47
Value
$389.5
PnL
-$50.57
Record
46%
927-1068 (1995)
Invested
$339.89
Value
—
PnL
-$339.89
Record
31%
622-1392 (2014)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$289.3
Value
$368.89
PnL
+$79.59
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$376.88
Value
$362.96
PnL
-$13.92
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Invested
$271.83
Value
$361.76
PnL
+$89.93
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$330.73
Value
$210.16
PnL
-$120.57
Record
46%
715-854 (1569)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$189.38
Value
$233.4
PnL
+$44.03
Record
53%
4472-3897 (8369)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$165.53
Value
$169.47
PnL
+$3.94
Record
45%
979-1173 (2152)
Both legs:
Invested
$205.77
Value
$211.44
PnL
+$5.67
Record
51%
4538-4402 (8940)
Invested
$181.88
Value
$178.98
PnL
-$2.91
Record
52%
780-732 (1512)
Invested
$176.08
Value
$145.31
PnL
-$30.77
Record
53%
787-700 (1487)
Invested
$118.54
Value
$183.77
PnL
+$65.23
Record
51%
704-686 (1390)
Invested
$92.62
Value
$154
PnL
+$61.38
Record
50%
1753-1753 (3506)
Invested
$90.09
Value
$89.64
PnL
-$0.45
Record
59%
896-617 (1513)
Invested
$116.92
Value
$78.41
PnL
-$38.51
Record
45%
635-762 (1397)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
soswald1
Down — $950
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $559.47
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $493.18
asdcaxz
Down — $448.07
almach
Down — $500
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0