Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.9K

Combined PnL

$572.48

Smart Money Signal

34 of 54 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up34 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares24,580

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Down20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,541

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.7K	-$52.53	55% 359-292 (651)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$9.85	39% 198-309 (507)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 39¢	$1.1K	$2.4K	+$1.3K	50% 2066-2059 (4125)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 68.1¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$35.63	46% 927-1068 (1995)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 50.7¢	$665.73	$895.37	+$229.65	60% 948-636 (1584)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 47.6¢	$621.81	$828.39	+$218.41	44% 671-859 (1530)
AL almach	Upavg 89.2¢	$764.19	$749.32	-$4.84	50% 1286-1280 (2566)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 58.9¢	$527.15	$612.71	+$85.55	52% 4851-4544 (9395)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 49.6¢	$542.76	$570.66	+$27.9	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 60.1¢	$486.85	$492.7	+$5.85	50% 4218-4300 (8518)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 48.3¢	$607.21	—	-$473.15	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 54.5¢	$453.65	$461.94	+$8.29	46% 715-854 (1569)
BO bosona	Upavg 84.7¢	$1.5K	$390.77	-$302.4	51% 4538-4402 (8940)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 67.9¢	$379.61	$382.33	+$2.72	53% 787-700 (1487)
ST stepahead	Upavg 64.1¢	$361.58	$367.53	+$5.95	55% 4306-3538 (7844)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 88.4¢	$329.79	$341.16	+$11.37	52% 780-732 (1512)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 59.7¢	$292.38	$322.96	+$31.69	53% 4472-3897 (8369)
machinelearned	Upavg 41.3¢	$228.02	$321.41	+$93.4	45% 979-1173 (2152)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 74¢	$321.43	$270.35	-$51.08	55% 822-669 (1491)
OhioAI	Upavg 48¢	$195.83	$212	+$16.17	50% 689-681 (1370)
SP spartacray	Upavg 65¢	$152.16	$188.12	+$35.97	58% 878-623 (1501)
MO mo-money	Upavg 94¢	$791.8	$186.83	-$117.37	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 67¢	$141.5	$176	+$34.5	51% 715-695 (1410)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 67.2¢	$112.4	$165	+$52.6	44% 1903-2453 (4356)
FL flippingsharksCTR	Downavg 59.8¢	$109.56	—	-$109.56	38% 581-947 (1528)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,556

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$52.53

Record

55%

359-292 (651)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$9.85

Record

39%

198-309 (507)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,061.47

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

2066-2059 (4125)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,065.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$35.63

Record

46%

927-1068 (1995)

Bonereaper

Invested

$665.73

Value

$895.37

PnL

+$229.65

Record

60%

948-636 (1584)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$621.81

Value

$828.39

PnL

+$218.41

Record

44%

671-859 (1530)

almach

Invested

$764.19

Value

$749.32

PnL

-$4.84

Record

50%

1286-1280 (2566)

blue.birds

Invested

$527.15

Value

$612.71

PnL

+$85.55

Record

52%

4851-4544 (9395)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$542.76

Value

$570.66

PnL

+$27.9

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

asdcaxz

Invested

$486.85

Value

$492.7

PnL

+$5.85

Record

50%

4218-4300 (8518)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$607.21

Value

—

PnL

-$473.15

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

GoodFallen

Invested

$453.65

Value

$461.94

PnL

+$8.29

Record

46%

715-854 (1569)

bosona

Invested

$1,470.34

Value

$390.77

PnL

-$302.4

Record

51%

4538-4402 (8940)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$379.61

Value

$382.33

PnL

+$2.72

Record

53%

787-700 (1487)

stepahead

Invested

$361.58

Value

$367.53

PnL

+$5.95

Record

55%

4306-3538 (7844)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$329.79

Value

$341.16

PnL

+$11.37

Record

52%

780-732 (1512)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$292.38

Value

$322.96

PnL

+$31.69

Record

53%

4472-3897 (8369)

machinelearned

Invested

$228.02

Value

$321.41

PnL

+$93.4

Record

45%

979-1173 (2152)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$321.43

Value

$270.35

PnL

-$51.08

Record

55%

822-669 (1491)

OhioAI

Invested

$195.83

Value

$212

PnL

+$16.17

Record

50%

689-681 (1370)

spartacray

Invested

$152.16

Value

$188.12

PnL

+$35.97

Record

58%

878-623 (1501)

mo-money

Invested

$791.8

Value

$186.83

PnL

-$117.37

Record

49%

1276-1302 (2578)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$141.5

Value

$176

PnL

+$34.5

Record

51%

715-695 (1410)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$112.4

Value

$165

PnL

+$52.6

Record

44%

1903-2453 (4356)

flippingsharksCTR

Down

Invested

$109.56

Value

—

PnL

-$109.56

Record

38%

581-947 (1528)

Smart Money Signal

34 of 54 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x23c1db3e...9d38f6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794649800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.7K

-$52.53

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

-$9.85

uninformedfloww

Up — $2.4K

+$1.3K

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.0K

-$35.63

Bonereaper

Up — $895.37

+$229.65

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $828.39

+$218.41

almach

Up — $749.32

-$4.84

blue.birds

Up — $612.71

+$85.55

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $570.66

+$27.9

asdcaxz

Up — $492.7

+$5.85

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