Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
43
Up 67%
4 arb excluded
$17.7K
$-4.9K
Smart Money Signal
29 of 43 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.3K | +$5.16 | 55% 359-292 (651) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 39% 198-309 (507) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 51% 1292-1224 (2516) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.46 | 71% 1464-597 (2061) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $695.97 | $703 | +$7.03 | 98% 3348-72 (3420) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $525.71 | $501.35 | -$3 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.4¢ | $252.67 | $501.35 | +$249.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $246.25 | — | -$252.1 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 79.4¢ | $502.11 | $436.21 | -$42.21 | 60% 948-636 (1584) |
BO bosona | Upavg 88.6¢ | $367.39 | $414.75 | +$47.37 | 51% 4538-4402 (8940) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 90.4¢ | $308.72 | $341.56 | +$32.84 | 49% 1276-1302 (2578) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 68¢ | $279.22 | $306.4 | +$27.17 | 55% 4306-3538 (7844) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 93¢ | $306.18 | $275.15 | +$4.37 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
AL almach | Upavg 89¢ | $445 | $500 | +$55 | 50% 1286-1280 (2566) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 40.6¢ | $199.54 | — | -$199.54 | 46% 927-1068 (1995) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 98.5¢ | $172.37 | $175 | +$2.63 | 38% 1297-2123 (3420) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 65.1¢ | $179.43 | $159.99 | -$19.44 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 96¢ | $167.77 | $155.97 | -$11.8 | 52% 780-732 (1512) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 84.6¢ | $113.29 | $128.19 | +$14.9 | 45% 979-1173 (2152) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 76.4¢ | $127.43 | $154.25 | +$26.82 | 44% 671-859 (1530) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.4¢ | $117.8 | $154.25 | +$36.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 10.7¢ | $9.63 | — | -$9.63 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 76.2¢ | $120.67 | $108.99 | -$11.67 | 31% 622-1392 (2014) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 86.6¢ | $114.55 | $120.69 | +$6.14 | 53% 787-700 (1487) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 86.6¢ | $104.47 | $120.69 | +$16.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 14.8¢ | $10.08 | — | -$10.08 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 86.5¢ | $92.7 | $67.12 | -$15.68 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 87.9¢ | $67.42 | $71 | +$3.58 | 46% 715-854 (1569) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 87.9¢ | $62.42 | $71 | +$8.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 10¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $39.64 | $50.05 | +$10.41 | 59% 896-617 (1513) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $27.48 | — | -$27.48 | 50% 702-704 (1406) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $43.36 | $44.7 | +$1.34 | 32% 950-1996 (2946) |
Invested
$8,739
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$5.16
Record
55%
359-292 (651)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
39%
198-309 (507)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
51%
1292-1224 (2516)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,233.11
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.46
Record
71%
1464-597 (2061)
Invested
$695.97
Value
$703
PnL
+$7.03
Record
98%
3348-72 (3420)
Invested
$525.71
Value
$501.35
PnL
-$3
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Both legs:
Invested
$502.11
Value
$436.21
PnL
-$42.21
Record
60%
948-636 (1584)
Invested
$367.39
Value
$414.75
PnL
+$47.37
Record
51%
4538-4402 (8940)
Invested
$308.72
Value
$341.56
PnL
+$32.84
Record
49%
1276-1302 (2578)
Invested
$279.22
Value
$306.4
PnL
+$27.17
Record
55%
4306-3538 (7844)
Invested
$306.18
Value
$275.15
PnL
+$4.37
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$445
Value
$500
PnL
+$55
Record
50%
1286-1280 (2566)
Invested
$199.54
Value
—
PnL
-$199.54
Record
46%
927-1068 (1995)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$172.37
Value
$175
PnL
+$2.63
Record
38%
1297-2123 (3420)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$179.43
Value
$159.99
PnL
-$19.44
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$167.77
Value
$155.97
PnL
-$11.8
Record
52%
780-732 (1512)
machinelearnedInvested
$113.29
Value
$128.19
PnL
+$14.9
Record
45%
979-1173 (2152)
Invested
$127.43
Value
$154.25
PnL
+$26.82
Record
44%
671-859 (1530)
Both legs:
Invested
$120.67
Value
$108.99
PnL
-$11.67
Record
31%
622-1392 (2014)
Invested
$114.55
Value
$120.69
PnL
+$6.14
Record
53%
787-700 (1487)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.7
Value
$67.12
PnL
-$15.68
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$67.42
Value
$71
PnL
+$3.58
Record
46%
715-854 (1569)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.64
Value
$50.05
PnL
+$10.41
Record
59%
896-617 (1513)
Invested
$27.48
Value
—
PnL
-$27.48
Record
50%
702-704 (1406)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$43.36
Value
$44.7
PnL
+$1.34
Record
32%
950-1996 (2946)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.3K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
BoneOhio
Up — $1.2K
hoodquant
Up — $703
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Up — $436.21
bosona
Up — $414.75
mo-money
Up — $341.56
stepahead
Up — $306.4