Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

19 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

-$203.06

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 37 top traders (54%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,479

Combined PnL+$274.76

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,076

Combined PnL-$477.82

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$8.1K	+$65.67	55% 359-292 (651)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$8.1K	+$4.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-4.1K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$22.25	39% 198-309 (507)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.5K
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$926.82	+$19.51	51% 3113-3000 (6113)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$463.41	$926.82	+$473.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$452.55	—	-$453.63
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$563.64	$485.07	-$3.73	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$243.13	$485.07	+$248.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$249.97	—	-$251.94
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$409.22	$384.1	-$25.11	44% 671-859 (1530)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.8¢	$191.07	—	-$191.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$218.14	$384.1	+$165.96
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$626.39	$632.72	+$6.33	50% 1753-1753 (3506)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 75.4¢	$366.87	$348.71	-$18.16	52% 4851-4544 (9395)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.4¢	$262.89	$348.71	+$85.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.8¢	$103.98	—	-$103.98
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$355.34	$262	-$56.48	60% 948-636 (1584)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$201.45	—	-$201.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$132.26	$262	+$144.96
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$262.28	$285.03	+$22.75	50% 4218-4300 (8518)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$164.36	$285.03	+$120.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$97.92	—	-$97.92
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 26.2¢	$196.79	$164.97	-$13.82	31% 622-1392 (2014)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.2¢	$100.41	—	-$100.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$85.95	$164.97	+$86.59
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$195.15	$231.29	+$36.15	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$115.23	$231.29	+$116.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$79.92	—	-$79.92
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$233.93	$270.22	+$36.29	46% 715-854 (1569)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$160.47	$270.22	+$109.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.4¢	$73.46	—	-$73.46
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$217.16	$252.59	+$52.83	53% 4472-3897 (8369)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$139.52	$252.59	+$119.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$66.6	—	-$66.6
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 22.6¢	$112.34	—	-$99.39	46% 927-1068 (1995)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 75.5¢	$123.07	$125.76	+$2.69	52% 780-732 (1512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.5¢	$94.92	$125.76	+$30.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.6¢	$28.15	—	-$28.15
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$141.4	$121.07	-$20.33	55% 4306-3538 (7844)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$84.77	$121.07	+$36.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 35¢	$56.63	—	-$56.63
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 85¢	$124.14	$125.98	+$1.84	51% 715-695 (1410)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$107.08	$125.98	+$18.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.9¢	$17.06	—	-$17.06
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$127.55	$83.97	-$43.58	45% 979-1173 (2152)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$81.89	—	-$81.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.4¢	$45.66	$83.97	+$38.31
FL flippingsharks	Downavg 55.8¢	$95.35	$171.02	+$75.67	38% 581-947 (1528)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 75.8¢	$143.12	$166.72	+$43.6	59% 896-617 (1513)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$88.26	$88	-$0.26	50% 689-681 (1370)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$52.44	$88	+$35.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$35.83	—	-$35.83
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$104.32	$90	-$7.94	39% 689-1061 (1750)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.7¢	$62.7	$90	+$27.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$26.37	—	-$35.24
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$63.69	$63	-$0.69	45% 635-762 (1397)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$32.76	$63	+$30.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$30.93	—	-$30.93
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100	Upavg 15.3¢	$21.99	—	-$21.99	51% 704-686 (1390)
SP spartacray	Downavg 73.4¢	$124.45	$94.07	+$15.71	58% 878-623 (1501)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,564

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$65.67

Record

55%

359-292 (651)

Both legs:

Down$4,041.9750¢+$4.2K

Up$4,047.2150¢$-4.1K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$22.25

Record

39%

198-309 (507)

Both legs:

Down$2,491.2550¢+$2.5K

Up$2,446.2550¢$-2.5K

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$926.82

PnL

+$19.51

Record

51%

3113-3000 (6113)

Both legs:

Down$463.4150¢+$473.15

Up$452.5550¢-$453.63

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$563.64

Value

$485.07

PnL

-$3.73

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

Both legs:

Down$243.1350.1¢+$248.21

Up$249.9748.2¢-$251.94

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$409.22

Value

$384.1

PnL

-$25.11

Record

44%

671-859 (1530)

Both legs:

Up$191.0733.8¢-$191.07

Down$218.1456.8¢+$165.96

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$626.39

Value

$632.72

PnL

+$6.33

Record

50%

1753-1753 (3506)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$366.87

Value

$348.71

PnL

-$18.16

Record

52%

4851-4544 (9395)

Both legs:

Down$262.8975.4¢+$85.82

Up$103.9827.8¢-$103.98

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$355.34

Value

$262

PnL

-$56.48

Record

60%

948-636 (1584)

Both legs:

Up$201.4541.4¢-$201.45

Down$132.2650.5¢+$144.96

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$262.28

Value

$285.03

PnL

+$22.75

Record

50%

4218-4300 (8518)

Both legs:

Down$164.3657.7¢+$120.67

Up$97.9239¢-$97.92

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$196.79

Value

$164.97

PnL

-$13.82

Record

31%

622-1392 (2014)

Both legs:

Up$100.4126.2¢-$100.41

Down$85.9552.1¢+$86.59

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$195.15

Value

$231.29

PnL

+$36.15

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

Both legs:

Down$115.2349.8¢+$116.06

Up$79.9232.4¢-$79.92

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$233.93

Value

$270.22

PnL

+$36.29

Record

46%

715-854 (1569)

Both legs:

Down$160.4759.4¢+$109.75

Up$73.4639.4¢-$73.46

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$217.16

Value

$252.59

PnL

+$52.83

Record

53%

4472-3897 (8369)

Both legs:

Down$139.5255.2¢+$119.43

Up$66.643¢-$66.6

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$112.34

Value

—

PnL

-$99.39

Record

46%

927-1068 (1995)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$123.07

Value

$125.76

PnL

+$2.69

Record

52%

780-732 (1512)

Both legs:

Down$94.9275.5¢+$30.85

Up$28.1517.6¢-$28.15

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$141.4

Value

$121.07

PnL

-$20.33

Record

55%

4306-3538 (7844)

Both legs:

Down$84.7770¢+$36.3

Up$56.6335¢-$56.63

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$124.14

Value

$125.98

PnL

+$1.84

Record

51%

715-695 (1410)

Both legs:

Down$107.0885¢+$18.9

Up$17.0614.9¢-$17.06

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$127.55

Value

$83.97

PnL

-$43.58

Record

45%

979-1173 (2152)

Both legs:

Up$81.8950.8¢-$81.89

Down$45.6654.4¢+$38.31

flippingsharks

Down

Invested

$95.35

Value

$171.02

PnL

+$75.67

Record

38%

581-947 (1528)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$143.12

Value

$166.72

PnL

+$43.6

Record

59%

896-617 (1513)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.26

Value

$88

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

689-681 (1370)

Both legs:

Down$52.4459.6¢+$35.56

Up$35.8347.1¢-$35.83

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.32

Value

$90

PnL

-$7.94

Record

39%

689-1061 (1750)

Both legs:

Down$62.769.7¢+$27.3

Up$26.3752.6¢-$35.24

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$63.69

Value

$63

PnL

-$0.69

Record

45%

635-762 (1397)

Both legs:

Down$32.7652¢+$30.24

Up$30.9347.8¢-$30.93

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100

Invested

$21.99

Value

—

PnL

-$21.99

Record

51%

704-686 (1390)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$124.45

Value

$94.07

PnL

+$15.71

Record

58%

878-623 (1501)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 37 top traders (54%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9d781e8c...f70940

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794649200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$25.11

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $632.72

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded