Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

26 of 42 top Polymarket traders hold Down (62%) · Down at 97¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 14

Up4¢Down96¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

$172.19

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 96.5¢

+77% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 42 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up4%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares16,496

Combined PnL+$210.25

Up16 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,853

Combined PnL-$38.06

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.4K	+$82.77	55% 358-290 (648)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0.43	39% 191-303 (494)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$950	$931.47	+$0.72	51% 3088-2980 (6068)
BO bosona	Downavg 85.7¢	$487.37	$548.85	+$61.48	51% 4524-4391 (8915)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.4¢	$521.23	$498.32	-$5.02	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
ST stepahead	Downavg 72.6¢	$281.78	$284.6	+$2.82	55% 4299-3527 (7826)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 72.5¢	$286.4	$272.6	-$13.8	60% 940-631 (1571)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 69.4¢	$260.51	$272.39	+$11.88	52% 2019-1897 (3916)
machinelearned	Downavg 86.1¢	$237.58	$254.17	+$16.58	46% 976-1163 (2139)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$290.02	$247.67	-$42.35	47% 921-1056 (1977)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.5¢	$135.51	$158.17	+$22.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.5¢	$154.51	$89.5	-$65.01
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 90.1¢	$174.72	$161.55	-$13.17	31% 618-1383 (2001)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$169.17	$145.27	-$23.9	44% 666-851 (1517)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.4¢	$92.52	$114.05	+$21.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.3¢	$76.65	$31.23	-$45.43
BL blue.birds	Downavg 77.4¢	$141.24	$131.35	+$5.94	52% 4832-4520 (9352)
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 45.5¢	$107.9	$99.28	-$8.62	51% 885-846 (1731)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 86.4¢	$91.19	$74.8	+$7.61	52% 772-727 (1499)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$60.33	$69.86	+$9.53	60% 877-596 (1473)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$60.59	$62.97	+$2.38	55% 814-664 (1478)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$48.31	$54.89	+$6.57	59% 891-610 (1501)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$48.1	$50.02	+$1.93	50% 705-716 (1421)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$45.25	$47.38	+$2.13	44% 1886-2437 (4323)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 72.2¢	$40.42	$46.76	+$6.34	59% 871-617 (1488)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 26.7¢	$82.59	$45.06	-$37.52	46% 711-845 (1556)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.1¢	$23.79	$24.16	+$0.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.7¢	$58.8	$20.9	-$37.9
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$34.32	$43.08	+$8.76	53% 781-693 (1474)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$67.6	$38.88	+$4.77	52% 791-737 (1528)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100	Downavg 81¢	$31.22	$32.32	+$1.1	48% 659-708 (1367)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,936

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$82.77

Record

55%

358-290 (648)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0.43

Record

39%

191-303 (494)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$950

Value

$931.47

PnL

+$0.72

Record

51%

3088-2980 (6068)

bosona

Down

Invested

$487.37

Value

$548.85

PnL

+$61.48

Record

51%

4524-4391 (8915)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$521.23

Value

$498.32

PnL

-$5.02

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$281.78

Value

$284.6

PnL

+$2.82

Record

55%

4299-3527 (7826)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$286.4

Value

$272.6

PnL

-$13.8

Record

60%

940-631 (1571)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$260.51

Value

$272.39

PnL

+$11.88

Record

52%

2019-1897 (3916)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$237.58

Value

$254.17

PnL

+$16.58

Record

46%

976-1163 (2139)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$290.02

Value

$247.67

PnL

-$42.35

Record

47%

921-1056 (1977)

Both legs:

Down$135.5171.5¢+$22.66

Up$154.5128.5¢-$65.01

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$174.72

Value

$161.55

PnL

-$13.17

Record

31%

618-1383 (2001)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$169.17

Value

$145.27

PnL

-$23.9

Record

44%

666-851 (1517)

Both legs:

Down$92.5273.4¢+$21.53

Up$76.6523.3¢-$45.43

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$141.24

Value

$131.35

PnL

+$5.94

Record

52%

4832-4520 (9352)

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$107.9

Value

$99.28

PnL

-$8.62

Record

51%

885-846 (1731)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$91.19

Value

$74.8

PnL

+$7.61

Record

52%

772-727 (1499)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$60.33

Value

$69.86

PnL

+$9.53

Record

60%

877-596 (1473)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$60.59

Value

$62.97

PnL

+$2.38

Record

55%

814-664 (1478)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$48.31

Value

$54.89

PnL

+$6.57

Record

59%

891-610 (1501)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$48.1

Value

$50.02

PnL

+$1.93

Record

50%

705-716 (1421)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$45.25

Value

$47.38

PnL

+$2.13

Record

44%

1886-2437 (4323)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$40.42

Value

$46.76

PnL

+$6.34

Record

59%

871-617 (1488)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$82.59

Value

$45.06

PnL

-$37.52

Record

46%

711-845 (1556)

Both legs:

Down$23.7989.1¢+$0.38

Up$58.826.7¢-$37.9

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$34.32

Value

$43.08

PnL

+$8.76

Record

53%

781-693 (1474)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$67.6

Value

$38.88

PnL

+$4.77

Record

52%

791-737 (1528)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100

Down

Invested

$31.22

Value

$32.32

PnL

+$1.1

Record

48%

659-708 (1367)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 42 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.