Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

36 of 46 top Polymarket traders hold Up (78%) · Up at 100¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

$17.62

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 36 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

36 of 46 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up36 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares18,480

Combined PnL+$47.07

Down10 traders

Total Value$508.48

Total Shares1,629

Combined PnL-$29.45

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.2K	+$1.46	55% 358-290 (648)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	+$22.83	39% 191-303 (494)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	51% 3088-2980 (6068)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$551.76	$557.72	+$5.96	98% 3320-70 (3390)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.5¢	$529.95	$495.76	+$1.13	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 78.6¢	$453.61	$399.26	-$54.05	60% 940-631 (1571)
BO bosona	Upavg 79.7¢	$338.92	$338.13	-$0.78	51% 4524-4391 (8915)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 75.7¢	$258.52	$277.07	+$27.41	50% 4199-4276 (8475)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 51.4¢	$210.28	$267.98	+$57.71	50% 1731-1732 (3463)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 84.9¢	$234.98	$220.17	-$14.81	52% 4832-4520 (9352)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$213.64	$219.79	+$6.15	44% 666-851 (1517)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.2¢	$156.98	$173.72	+$16.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.6¢	$56.65	$46.07	-$10.59
ST stepahead	Upavg 72.1¢	$212.8	$218.34	+$5.54	55% 4299-3527 (7826)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 39.2¢	$220.57	$217.4	-$3.18	52% 2019-1897 (3916)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 99¢	$132.34	$130.31	-$2.03	38% 1284-2104 (3388)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 91¢	$132.46	$128.81	-$3.65	52% 772-727 (1499)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 30.6¢	$110.48	$106.42	-$4.06	47% 921-1056 (1977)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$76.46	$97.96	+$21.5	50% 1265-1289 (2554)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 85¢	$92.24	$93.03	+$0.79	59% 871-617 (1488)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$80.16	$88.37	+$8.21	59% 891-610 (1501)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 83.4¢	$99.57	$86.81	-$12.76	46% 711-845 (1556)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.4¢	$55.16	$57.23	+$2.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.3¢	$44.41	$29.58	-$14.84
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 83.9¢	$72.18	$85.96	+$13.78	50% 684-673 (1357)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 88.8¢	$86.37	$85.08	-$1.29	46% 976-1163 (2139)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Upavg 84.5¢	$75.13	$76.91	+$1.78	60% 877-596 (1473)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 87.5¢	$69.26	$70.08	+$0.83	60% 3418-2292 (5710)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100	Upavg 96.5¢	$76.59	$65.68	-$10.91	48% 659-708 (1367)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,716

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$1.46

Record

55%

358-290 (648)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$22.83

Record

39%

191-303 (494)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3088-2980 (6068)

hoodquant

Invested

$551.76

Value

$557.72

PnL

+$5.96

Record

98%

3320-70 (3390)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$529.95

Value

$495.76

PnL

+$1.13

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

Bonereaper

Invested

$453.61

Value

$399.26

PnL

-$54.05

Record

60%

940-631 (1571)

bosona

Invested

$338.92

Value

$338.13

PnL

-$0.78

Record

51%

4524-4391 (8915)

asdcaxz

Invested

$258.52

Value

$277.07

PnL

+$27.41

Record

50%

4199-4276 (8475)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$210.28

Value

$267.98

PnL

+$57.71

Record

50%

1731-1732 (3463)

blue.birds

Invested

$234.98

Value

$220.17

PnL

-$14.81

Record

52%

4832-4520 (9352)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$213.64

Value

$219.79

PnL

+$6.15

Record

44%

666-851 (1517)

Both legs:

Up$156.9878.2¢+$16.74

Down$56.6516.6¢-$10.59

stepahead

Invested

$212.8

Value

$218.34

PnL

+$5.54

Record

55%

4299-3527 (7826)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$220.57

Value

$217.4

PnL

-$3.18

Record

52%

2019-1897 (3916)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$132.34

Value

$130.31

PnL

-$2.03

Record

38%

1284-2104 (3388)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$132.46

Value

$128.81

PnL

-$3.65

Record

52%

772-727 (1499)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$110.48

Value

$106.42

PnL

-$4.06

Record

47%

921-1056 (1977)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$76.46

Value

$97.96

PnL

+$21.5

Record

50%

1265-1289 (2554)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$92.24

Value

$93.03

PnL

+$0.79

Record

59%

871-617 (1488)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$80.16

Value

$88.37

PnL

+$8.21

Record

59%

891-610 (1501)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$99.57

Value

$86.81

PnL

-$12.76

Record

46%

711-845 (1556)

Both legs:

Up$55.1683.4¢+$2.08

Down$44.4120.3¢-$14.84

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$72.18

Value

$85.96

PnL

+$13.78

Record

50%

684-673 (1357)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$86.37

Value

$85.08

PnL

-$1.29

Record

46%

976-1163 (2139)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Invested

$75.13

Value

$76.91

PnL

+$1.78

Record

60%

877-596 (1473)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$69.26

Value

$70.08

PnL

+$0.83

Record

60%

3418-2292 (5710)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100

Invested

$76.59

Value

$65.68

PnL

-$10.91

Record

48%

659-708 (1367)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

36 of 46 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.