Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
54
Down 54%
1 arb excluded
$6.0K
$-16.1K
Smart Money Signal
29 of 54 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.1K | 55% 358-290 (648) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-5.0K | 39% 191-303 (494) |
SU suntori | Upavg 29.8¢ | $407.4 | $1.2K | +$904.15 | 46% 2530-3008 (5538) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$10.17 | 99% 771-7 (778) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 57.2¢ | $740.39 | — | -$740.39 | 60% 940-631 (1571) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 43.2¢ | $534.53 | $658.64 | +$125.27 | 44% 666-851 (1517) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 43.4¢ | $475.22 | $582.23 | +$107.01 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 51.4¢ | $503.85 | $528.14 | +$24.29 | 55% 4299-3527 (7826) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.8¢ | $537.5 | — | -$482.77 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 73.3¢ | $738.4 | — | -$738.4 | 50% 1265-1289 (2554) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 41.2¢ | $345.3 | — | -$345.3 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 51.5¢ | $230.2 | — | -$212.22 | 46% 711-845 (1556) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 32¢ | $292.17 | — | -$292.17 | 47% 921-1056 (1977) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 45.6¢ | $241.55 | — | -$229.91 | 52% 2019-1897 (3916) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $130.67 | $211 | +$80.33 | 46% 631-754 (1385) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 77.3¢ | $159.13 | $190.53 | +$36.02 | 53% 781-693 (1474) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 71.4¢ | $220.52 | $173.37 | -$47.15 | 59% 871-617 (1488) |
 OhioAICTR | Downavg 56.9¢ | $206.04 | — | -$192.44 | 50% 684-673 (1357) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 68¢ | $196.14 | — | -$196.14 | 52% 791-737 (1528) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 56¢ | $103.58 | $126.25 | +$22.67 | 52% 772-727 (1499) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 53¢ | $326.01 | — | -$326.01 | 46% 976-1163 (2139) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 65.4¢ | $109.91 | $113.61 | +$3.7 | 60% 877-596 (1473) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 53.3¢ | $112.29 | $108.93 | -$3.36 | 53% 4469-3887 (8356) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 66.3¢ | $98.05 | $108.53 | +$10.48 | 59% 891-610 (1501) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $87.88 | $96.57 | +$8.69 | 51% 4524-4391 (8915) |
Invested
$8,911
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
55%
358-290 (648)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
39%
191-303 (494)
Invested
$407.4
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$904.15
Record
46%
2530-3008 (5538)
Invested
$1,006.4
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.17
Record
99%
771-7 (778)
Invested
$740.39
Value
—
PnL
-$740.39
Record
60%
940-631 (1571)
Invested
$534.53
Value
$658.64
PnL
+$125.27
Record
44%
666-851 (1517)
Invested
$475.22
Value
$582.23
PnL
+$107.01
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
Invested
$503.85
Value
$528.14
PnL
+$24.29
Record
55%
4299-3527 (7826)
Invested
$537.5
Value
—
PnL
-$482.77
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Invested
$738.4
Value
—
PnL
-$738.4
Record
50%
1265-1289 (2554)
Invested
$345.3
Value
—
PnL
-$345.3
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
Invested
$230.2
Value
—
PnL
-$212.22
Record
46%
711-845 (1556)
Invested
$292.17
Value
—
PnL
-$292.17
Record
47%
921-1056 (1977)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$241.55
Value
—
PnL
-$229.91
Record
52%
2019-1897 (3916)
Invested
$130.67
Value
$211
PnL
+$80.33
Record
46%
631-754 (1385)
Invested
$159.13
Value
$190.53
PnL
+$36.02
Record
53%
781-693 (1474)
Invested
$220.52
Value
$173.37
PnL
-$47.15
Record
59%
871-617 (1488)
OhioAICTRInvested
$206.04
Value
—
PnL
-$192.44
Record
50%
684-673 (1357)
Invested
$196.14
Value
—
PnL
-$196.14
Record
52%
791-737 (1528)
Invested
$103.58
Value
$126.25
PnL
+$22.67
Record
52%
772-727 (1499)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$326.01
Value
—
PnL
-$326.01
Record
46%
976-1163 (2139)
Invested
$109.91
Value
$113.61
PnL
+$3.7
Record
60%
877-596 (1473)
FairValueMachineInvested
$112.29
Value
$108.93
PnL
-$3.36
Record
53%
4469-3887 (8356)
Invested
$98.05
Value
$108.53
PnL
+$10.48
Record
59%
891-610 (1501)
Invested
$87.88
Value
$96.57
PnL
+$8.69
Record
51%
4524-4391 (8915)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
suntori
Up — $1.2K
THG.
Up — $1.0K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $658.64
asdcaxz
Up — $582.23
stepahead
Up — $528.14
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
CTRDown — $0