Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
41
Down 80%
2 arb excluded
$17.9K
$-4.1K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 41 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | $8.3K | +$43.91 | 55% 358-290 (648) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 39% 191-303 (494) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$32.84 | 99% 771-7 (778) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$25.38 | 98% 3320-70 (3390) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 91.8¢ | $652.58 | $633.75 | -$18.83 | 47% 921-1056 (1977) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 90.9¢ | $555.35 | $600.73 | +$45.38 | 46% 976-1163 (2139) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $546.39 | $504.08 | +$6.1 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 95.2¢ | $416.55 | $425.01 | +$8.46 | 52% 772-727 (1499) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 78.6¢ | $390.39 | $415.86 | +$25.47 | 60% 940-631 (1571) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69.7¢ | $284.64 | $301.65 | +$17 | 55% 4299-3527 (7826) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 88.2¢ | $374.29 | $271.97 | -$9.22 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70.6¢ | $267.37 | $265 | -$2.37 | 52% 2019-1897 (3916) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 93.7¢ | $257.17 | $226.48 | -$30.69 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 70.3¢ | $179.9 | $147.79 | -$32.11 | 44% 666-851 (1517) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.3¢ | $103.87 | $147.79 | +$43.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.4¢ | $76.03 | — | -$76.03 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 65.8¢ | $128.12 | $180.23 | +$52.11 | 53% 4469-3887 (8356) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 66.4¢ | $131.62 | $134.89 | +$3.27 | 46% 711-845 (1556) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $139.86 | $128.67 | -$11.19 | 31% 618-1383 (2001) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 85.1¢ | $111.85 | $129 | +$17.15 | 55% 814-664 (1478) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 84.6¢ | $119.08 | $124 | +$4.92 | 59% 891-610 (1501) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $83.89 | $91.34 | +$7.45 | 60% 877-596 (1473) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $79.58 | $85.73 | +$6.15 | 53% 781-693 (1474) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $69.88 | $81.98 | +$12.09 | 59% 871-617 (1488) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $60.68 | $62.52 | +$1.84 | 32% 943-1979 (2922) |
PB PBot-6ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $49 | $50 | +$1 | 50% 705-716 (1421) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $25 | — | -$25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48¢ | $24 | $50 | +$26 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $44.05 | $50 | +$5.95 | 50% 699-696 (1395) |
Invested
$8,521
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$43.91
Record
55%
358-290 (648)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
39%
191-303 (494)
Invested
$3,251.16
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$32.84
Record
99%
771-7 (778)
Invested
$1,125.61
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$25.38
Record
98%
3320-70 (3390)
Invested
$652.58
Value
$633.75
PnL
-$18.83
Record
47%
921-1056 (1977)
machinelearnedInvested
$555.35
Value
$600.73
PnL
+$45.38
Record
46%
976-1163 (2139)
Invested
$546.39
Value
$504.08
PnL
+$6.1
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Invested
$416.55
Value
$425.01
PnL
+$8.46
Record
52%
772-727 (1499)
Invested
$390.39
Value
$415.86
PnL
+$25.47
Record
60%
940-631 (1571)
Invested
$284.64
Value
$301.65
PnL
+$17
Record
55%
4299-3527 (7826)
Invested
$374.29
Value
$271.97
PnL
-$9.22
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$267.37
Value
$265
PnL
-$2.37
Record
52%
2019-1897 (3916)
Invested
$257.17
Value
$226.48
PnL
-$30.69
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
Invested
$179.9
Value
$147.79
PnL
-$32.11
Record
44%
666-851 (1517)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$128.12
Value
$180.23
PnL
+$52.11
Record
53%
4469-3887 (8356)
Invested
$131.62
Value
$134.89
PnL
+$3.27
Record
46%
711-845 (1556)
Invested
$139.86
Value
$128.67
PnL
-$11.19
Record
31%
618-1383 (2001)
Invested
$111.85
Value
$129
PnL
+$17.15
Record
55%
814-664 (1478)
Invested
$119.08
Value
$124
PnL
+$4.92
Record
59%
891-610 (1501)
Invested
$83.89
Value
$91.34
PnL
+$7.45
Record
60%
877-596 (1473)
Invested
$79.58
Value
$85.73
PnL
+$6.15
Record
53%
781-693 (1474)
Invested
$69.88
Value
$81.98
PnL
+$12.09
Record
59%
871-617 (1488)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$60.68
Value
$62.52
PnL
+$1.84
Record
32%
943-1979 (2922)
Invested
$49
Value
$50
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
705-716 (1421)
Both legs:
Invested
$44.05
Value
$50
PnL
+$5.95
Record
50%
699-696 (1395)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.3K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.3K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $633.75
machinelearned
Down — $600.73
ByteBadger92
Down — $504.08
EZTRADENL2
Down — $425.01
Bonereaper
Down — $415.86
stepahead
Down — $301.65