Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
42
Down 71%
3 arb excluded
$22.4K
$114.91
Smart Money Signal
30 of 42 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.3K | -$14.52 | 55% 358-290 (648) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$36.9 | 39% 191-303 (494) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$22.41 | 99% 771-7 (778) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $940 | +$5.2 | 51% 3088-2980 (6068) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 88¢ | $586.94 | $611.94 | +$25 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 85.3¢ | $561.62 | $658.27 | +$96.64 | 46% 976-1163 (2139) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51¢ | $540.44 | $496.51 | -$1.49 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
AL almach | Downavg 83.9¢ | $382.11 | $423.46 | +$41.36 | 50% 1276-1266 (2542) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $493.43 | $365.85 | -$127.58 | 47% 921-1056 (1977) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 89.8¢ | $328.55 | $365.85 | +$37.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.7¢ | $164.88 | — | -$164.88 | |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 79.7¢ | $382.57 | $406.71 | +$26.24 | 60% 940-631 (1571) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 85¢ | $402.03 | $366.73 | -$35.3 | 55% 4299-3527 (7826) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $296.97 | $432.81 | +$135.84 | 50% 1731-1732 (3463) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.8¢ | $211.22 | $432.81 | +$221.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $85.75 | — | -$85.75 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 86¢ | $256.45 | $276.84 | +$20.4 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 78.5¢ | $413.99 | $255.32 | -$31.06 | 52% 2019-1897 (3916) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 83.4¢ | $225.36 | $229.4 | +$4.04 | 44% 666-851 (1517) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 87.1¢ | $204.52 | $207.56 | +$3.04 | 55% 814-664 (1478) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 89.6¢ | $210.37 | $191.58 | -$18.79 | 31% 618-1383 (2001) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 47.4¢ | $125.13 | — | -$125.13 | 50% 705-716 (1421) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 79.1¢ | $96.16 | $113.83 | +$17.67 | 53% 781-693 (1474) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 92¢ | $107.87 | $110.01 | +$2.14 | 52% 772-727 (1499) |
BO bosona | Downavg 73¢ | $81.92 | $112.22 | +$30.3 | 51% 4524-4391 (8915) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $82.18 | $98.56 | +$16.38 | 59% 871-617 (1488) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $76.33 | $92.94 | +$16.6 | 59% 891-610 (1501) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Downavg 86.9¢ | $79.19 | $77.29 | -$1.91 | 46% 631-754 (1385) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $72.42 | $79.98 | +$7.55 | 60% 877-596 (1473) |
Invested
$8,693
Value
$8.3K
PnL
-$14.52
Record
55%
358-290 (648)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$36.9
Record
39%
191-303 (494)
Invested
$2,218.7
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$22.41
Record
99%
771-7 (778)
Invested
$950
Value
$940
PnL
+$5.2
Record
51%
3088-2980 (6068)
Invested
$586.94
Value
$611.94
PnL
+$25
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
machinelearnedInvested
$561.62
Value
$658.27
PnL
+$96.64
Record
46%
976-1163 (2139)
Invested
$540.44
Value
$496.51
PnL
-$1.49
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Invested
$382.11
Value
$423.46
PnL
+$41.36
Record
50%
1276-1266 (2542)
Invested
$493.43
Value
$365.85
PnL
-$127.58
Record
47%
921-1056 (1977)
Both legs:
Invested
$382.57
Value
$406.71
PnL
+$26.24
Record
60%
940-631 (1571)
Invested
$402.03
Value
$366.73
PnL
-$35.3
Record
55%
4299-3527 (7826)
Invested
$296.97
Value
$432.81
PnL
+$135.84
Record
50%
1731-1732 (3463)
Both legs:
Invested
$256.45
Value
$276.84
PnL
+$20.4
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$413.99
Value
$255.32
PnL
-$31.06
Record
52%
2019-1897 (3916)
Invested
$225.36
Value
$229.4
PnL
+$4.04
Record
44%
666-851 (1517)
Invested
$204.52
Value
$207.56
PnL
+$3.04
Record
55%
814-664 (1478)
Invested
$210.37
Value
$191.58
PnL
-$18.79
Record
31%
618-1383 (2001)
Invested
$125.13
Value
—
PnL
-$125.13
Record
50%
705-716 (1421)
Invested
$96.16
Value
$113.83
PnL
+$17.67
Record
53%
781-693 (1474)
Invested
$107.87
Value
$110.01
PnL
+$2.14
Record
52%
772-727 (1499)
Invested
$81.92
Value
$112.22
PnL
+$30.3
Record
51%
4524-4391 (8915)
Invested
$82.18
Value
$98.56
PnL
+$16.38
Record
59%
871-617 (1488)
Invested
$76.33
Value
$92.94
PnL
+$16.6
Record
59%
891-610 (1501)
Invested
$79.19
Value
$77.29
PnL
-$1.91
Record
46%
631-754 (1385)
Invested
$72.42
Value
$79.98
PnL
+$7.55
Record
60%
877-596 (1473)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.3K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
THG.
Down — $2.2K
soswald1
Down — $940
asdcaxz
Down — $611.94
machinelearned
Down — $658.27
ByteBadger92
Down — $496.51
almach
Down — $423.46
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Down — $406.71