Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
49
Down 48%
4 arb excluded
$5.3K
$-16.7K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 49 top traders (47%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.6K | 55% 358-290 (648) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 39% 191-303 (494) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$912.74 | 51% 3088-2980 (6068) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 41.1¢ | $590.65 | — | -$590.65 | 47% 921-1056 (1977) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 49.6¢ | $510.24 | $550.84 | +$40.59 | 55% 4299-3527 (7826) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $480.67 | $589.47 | +$108.8 | 60% 940-631 (1571) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.2¢ | $272.42 | $589.47 | +$317.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.5¢ | $208.24 | — | -$208.24 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 68.2¢ | $516.57 | $496.15 | -$20.42 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 48.1¢ | $573.75 | — | -$482.67 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 49.4¢ | $299.77 | $431.96 | +$137.59 | 46% 711-845 (1556) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 70.1¢ | $705.36 | — | -$705.36 | 50% 1276-1266 (2542) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 37.7¢ | $382.51 | — | -$382.51 | 44% 666-851 (1517) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 49.6¢ | $213.62 | $345.5 | +$157.53 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
BO bosona | Upavg 56.3¢ | $180.75 | $318.41 | +$137.66 | 51% 4524-4391 (8915) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 36.9¢ | $131.82 | $331.3 | +$199.48 | 46% 976-1163 (2139) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97¢ | $281.57 | $290.27 | +$8.71 | 98% 3320-70 (3390) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $244.99 | — | -$244.99 | 50% 1731-1732 (3463) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 48.8¢ | $204.69 | $217.92 | +$13.23 | 50% 684-673 (1357) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 50.3¢ | $245.73 | — | -$245.73 | 31% 618-1383 (2001) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 66¢ | $138.4 | $209.79 | +$71.39 | 52% 791-737 (1528) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 83.1¢ | $177.62 | $179.76 | +$2.14 | 53% 781-693 (1474) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $221.68 | $158 | -$63.68 | 50% 1265-1289 (2554) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78.6¢ | $124.18 | $158 | +$33.82 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.7¢ | $97.5 | — | -$97.5 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 53.8¢ | $78.05 | $145.09 | +$67.05 | 53% 4469-3887 (8356) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 65.3¢ | $88.08 | $134.86 | +$46.78 | 39% 683-1054 (1737) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 67.4¢ | $114.73 | $134.29 | +$19.56 | 60% 877-596 (1473) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 75.5¢ | $119.52 | $92.95 | -$26.57 | 52% 772-727 (1499) |
Invested
$8,788
Value
—
PnL
$-8.6K
Record
55%
358-290 (648)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
39%
191-303 (494)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$912.74
Record
51%
3088-2980 (6068)
Invested
$590.65
Value
—
PnL
-$590.65
Record
47%
921-1056 (1977)
Invested
$510.24
Value
$550.84
PnL
+$40.59
Record
55%
4299-3527 (7826)
Invested
$480.67
Value
$589.47
PnL
+$108.8
Record
60%
940-631 (1571)
Both legs:
Invested
$516.57
Value
$496.15
PnL
-$20.42
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
Invested
$573.75
Value
—
PnL
-$482.67
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Invested
$299.77
Value
$431.96
PnL
+$137.59
Record
46%
711-845 (1556)
Invested
$705.36
Value
—
PnL
-$705.36
Record
50%
1276-1266 (2542)
Invested
$382.51
Value
—
PnL
-$382.51
Record
44%
666-851 (1517)
Invested
$213.62
Value
$345.5
PnL
+$157.53
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
Invested
$180.75
Value
$318.41
PnL
+$137.66
Record
51%
4524-4391 (8915)
machinelearnedInvested
$131.82
Value
$331.3
PnL
+$199.48
Record
46%
976-1163 (2139)
Invested
$281.57
Value
$290.27
PnL
+$8.71
Record
98%
3320-70 (3390)
Invested
$244.99
Value
—
PnL
-$244.99
Record
50%
1731-1732 (3463)
OhioAIInvested
$204.69
Value
$217.92
PnL
+$13.23
Record
50%
684-673 (1357)
Invested
$245.73
Value
—
PnL
-$245.73
Record
31%
618-1383 (2001)
Invested
$138.4
Value
$209.79
PnL
+$71.39
Record
52%
791-737 (1528)
Invested
$177.62
Value
$179.76
PnL
+$2.14
Record
53%
781-693 (1474)
Invested
$221.68
Value
$158
PnL
-$63.68
Record
50%
1265-1289 (2554)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$78.05
Value
$145.09
PnL
+$67.05
Record
53%
4469-3887 (8356)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$88.08
Value
$134.86
PnL
+$46.78
Record
39%
683-1054 (1737)
Invested
$114.73
Value
$134.29
PnL
+$19.56
Record
60%
877-596 (1473)
Invested
$119.52
Value
$92.95
PnL
-$26.57
Record
52%
772-727 (1499)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $550.84
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Up — $496.15
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
Up — $431.96
almach
CTRDown — $0