Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 51% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
49
Up 51%
2 arb excluded
$10.5K
$-9.5K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 49 top traders (51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-8.4K | 55% 358-290 (648) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$56.1 | 39% 191-303 (494) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 53.5¢ | $521.11 | $582.86 | +$74.79 | 60% 940-631 (1571) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 77.3¢ | $496.05 | $505.16 | +$16.9 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $560.09 | $497.87 | -$8.99 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 54.8¢ | $366.67 | $482.98 | +$116.31 | 44% 666-851 (1517) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 85.1¢ | $469.42 | $470.09 | +$0.67 | 50% 1265-1289 (2554) |
AL almach | Upavg 87.6¢ | $422.8 | $432.19 | +$22.59 | 50% 1276-1266 (2542) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 73.4¢ | $377.16 | $368.24 | -$8.92 | 52% 772-727 (1499) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 81.5¢ | $394.45 | $361.5 | -$32.94 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
BO bosona | Upavg 74.4¢ | $319.09 | $388.36 | +$69.27 | 51% 4524-4391 (8915) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 95.4¢ | $515.05 | $299.51 | -$215.54 | 46% 976-1163 (2139) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 54¢ | $202.71 | $215 | +$12.29 | 52% 2019-1897 (3916) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 41¢ | $247.87 | — | -$247.87 | 55% 4299-3527 (7826) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 61.6¢ | $165.2 | $175.96 | +$10.77 | 50% 684-673 (1357) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 61.6¢ | $113.05 | $150.42 | +$37.37 | 53% 781-693 (1474) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 97.3¢ | $458.89 | $136 | -$61.96 | 31% 618-1383 (2001) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 33.9¢ | $140 | $102.14 | -$37.86 | 46% 711-845 (1556) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54¢ | $55.16 | $102.14 | +$46.98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.9¢ | $84.84 | — | -$84.84 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $81.58 | $94.5 | +$12.92 | 50% 709-702 (1411) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $42.93 | $93 | +$50.07 | 55% 814-664 (1478) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 46.2¢ | $94.24 | $84.27 | -$9.97 | 52% 791-737 (1528) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.6¢ | $46 | $84.27 | +$38.27 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.2¢ | $48.24 | — | -$48.24 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 47.5¢ | $186.11 | — | -$186.11 | 47% 921-1056 (1977) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $65.29 | $64.31 | -$0.98 | 60% 877-596 (1473) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.5¢ | $57.48 | — | -$57.48 | 51% 885-846 (1731) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Upavg 58.6¢ | $59.7 | $58.86 | -$0.84 | 59% 871-617 (1488) |
Invested
$8,548
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
55%
358-290 (648)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$56.1
Record
39%
191-303 (494)
Invested
$521.11
Value
$582.86
PnL
+$74.79
Record
60%
940-631 (1571)
Invested
$496.05
Value
$505.16
PnL
+$16.9
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
Invested
$560.09
Value
$497.87
PnL
-$8.99
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Invested
$366.67
Value
$482.98
PnL
+$116.31
Record
44%
666-851 (1517)
Invested
$469.42
Value
$470.09
PnL
+$0.67
Record
50%
1265-1289 (2554)
Invested
$422.8
Value
$432.19
PnL
+$22.59
Record
50%
1276-1266 (2542)
Invested
$377.16
Value
$368.24
PnL
-$8.92
Record
52%
772-727 (1499)
Invested
$394.45
Value
$361.5
PnL
-$32.94
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
Invested
$319.09
Value
$388.36
PnL
+$69.27
Record
51%
4524-4391 (8915)
machinelearnedInvested
$515.05
Value
$299.51
PnL
-$215.54
Record
46%
976-1163 (2139)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$202.71
Value
$215
PnL
+$12.29
Record
52%
2019-1897 (3916)
Invested
$247.87
Value
—
PnL
-$247.87
Record
55%
4299-3527 (7826)
OhioAIInvested
$165.2
Value
$175.96
PnL
+$10.77
Record
50%
684-673 (1357)
Invested
$113.05
Value
$150.42
PnL
+$37.37
Record
53%
781-693 (1474)
Invested
$458.89
Value
$136
PnL
-$61.96
Record
31%
618-1383 (2001)
Invested
$140
Value
$102.14
PnL
-$37.86
Record
46%
711-845 (1556)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.58
Value
$94.5
PnL
+$12.92
Record
50%
709-702 (1411)
Invested
$42.93
Value
$93
PnL
+$50.07
Record
55%
814-664 (1478)
Invested
$94.24
Value
$84.27
PnL
-$9.97
Record
52%
791-737 (1528)
Both legs:
Invested
$186.11
Value
—
PnL
-$186.11
Record
47%
921-1056 (1977)
Invested
$65.29
Value
$64.31
PnL
-$0.98
Record
60%
877-596 (1473)
Invested
$57.48
Value
—
PnL
-$57.48
Record
51%
885-846 (1731)
Invested
$59.7
Value
$58.86
PnL
-$0.84
Record
59%
871-617 (1488)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.8K
Bonereaper
Up — $582.86
asdcaxz
Up — $505.16
ByteBadger92
Up — $497.87
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $482.98
mo-money
Up — $470.09
almach
Up — $432.19
EZTRADENL2
Up — $368.24
blue.birds
Up — $361.5