Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

29 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 30 top traders (73%)29 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares8,828

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,722

Combined PnL-$472.24

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.5K	$8.3K	+$30.21	55% 358-290 (648)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.1K	—	$-4.2K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.2K	$8.3K	+$4.2K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$102.05	39% 191-303 (494)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$32.76	99% 771-7 (778)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$588.61	$963.84	+$375.23	46% 976-1163 (2139)
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.1¢	$141.88	—	-$141.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$446.73	$963.84	+$517.11
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$808.79	$660.51	-$148.28	44% 666-851 (1517)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$460.49	—	-$460.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$348.31	$660.51	+$312.2
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$698.28	$759.28	+$61	31% 618-1383 (2001)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.8¢	$273.53	—	-$273.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$424.75	$759.28	+$334.53
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$696.42	$887.59	+$191.18	47% 921-1056 (1977)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$621.74	$887.59	+$265.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 10.7¢	$74.68	—	-$74.68
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$668.34	$869.58	+$201.24	60% 940-631 (1571)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$438.42	$869.58	+$431.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 38¢	$229.92	—	-$229.92
AL almach	Downavg 46.9¢	$686.59	$1.5K	+$778.01	50% 1276-1266 (2542)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$674.23	$724.53	+$50.3	55% 4299-3527 (7826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$412.9	$724.53	+$311.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$261.33	—	-$261.33
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 70.1¢	$599.78	$528.95	+$13.72	50% 4199-4276 (8475)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$587.4	$501.33	+$27.1	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$242.7	—	-$241.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$259.09	$501.33	+$268.33
MO mo-money	Downavg 52.6¢	$506.7	$963.83	+$457.13	50% 1265-1289 (2554)
BO bosona	Downavg 75.8¢	$627.82	$828.58	+$200.76	51% 4524-4391 (8915)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 54¢	$329.01	$406.43	+$77.42	46% 711-845 (1556)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54¢	$219.61	$406.43	+$186.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.2¢	$109.39	—	-$109.39
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$314.1	$361.84	+$47.75	52% 4832-4520 (9352)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.4¢	$193.1	$361.84	+$168.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$120.99	—	-$120.99
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$373.99	$312.87	+$42.52	52% 2019-1897 (3916)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$165.59	$312.87	+$146.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$110.18	—	-$104.21
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97¢	$578.95	$596.86	+$17.91	98% 3320-70 (3390)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$273.17	$297.51	+$24.33	52% 772-727 (1499)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.4¢	$230.21	$297.51	+$67.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 16¢	$42.97	—	-$42.97
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 82.2¢	$324.23	$304.38	-$19.84	55% 814-664 (1478)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.2¢	$250.17	$304.38	+$54.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$74.06	—	-$74.06
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$176.15	$179.21	+$3.06	53% 781-693 (1474)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.6¢	$61.96	—	-$61.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$114.19	$179.21	+$65.02
LI Little-big	Downavg 36.5¢	$64.77	$177.69	+$112.92	51% 885-846 (1731)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$96.67	$125	+$28.33	53% 4469-3887 (8356)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.3¢	$30.92	—	-$30.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.6¢	$65.75	$125	+$59.26
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$125.6	$123.29	-$2.31	46% 1344-1580 (2924)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$63.6	—	-$63.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$62	$123.29	+$61.29
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 75.2¢	$88.19	$113	+$24.81	46% 631-754 (1385)
└ Up leg	Upavg 2.4¢	$3.21	—	-$3.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.2¢	$84.98	$113	+$28.02

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,545

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$30.21

Record

55%

358-290 (648)

Both legs:

Up$4,14250¢$-4.2K

Down$4,162.9550¢+$4.2K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$102.05

Record

39%

191-303 (494)

Both legs:

Down$2,492.550¢+$2.5K

Up$2,353.8250¢$-2.4K

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,243.24

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$32.76

Record

99%

771-7 (778)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$588.61

Value

$963.84

PnL

+$375.23

Record

46%

976-1163 (2139)

Both legs:

Up$141.8814.1¢-$141.88

Down$446.7346.3¢+$517.11

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$808.79

Value

$660.51

PnL

-$148.28

Record

44%

666-851 (1517)

Both legs:

Up$460.4936.4¢-$460.49

Down$348.3152.7¢+$312.2

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$698.28

Value

$759.28

PnL

+$61

Record

31%

618-1383 (2001)

Both legs:

Up$273.5328.8¢-$273.53

Down$424.7555.9¢+$334.53

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$696.42

Value

$887.59

PnL

+$191.18

Record

47%

921-1056 (1977)

Both legs:

Down$621.7470¢+$265.85

Up$74.6810.7¢-$74.68

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$668.34

Value

$869.58

PnL

+$201.24

Record

60%

940-631 (1571)

Both legs:

Down$438.4250.4¢+$431.16

Up$229.9238¢-$229.92

almach

Down

Invested

$686.59

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$778.01

Record

50%

1276-1266 (2542)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$674.23

Value

$724.53

PnL

+$50.3

Record

55%

4299-3527 (7826)

Both legs:

Down$412.957¢+$311.63

Up$261.3345.1¢-$261.33

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$599.78

Value

$528.95

PnL

+$13.72

Record

50%

4199-4276 (8475)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$587.4

Value

$501.33

PnL

+$27.1

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

Both legs:

Up$242.748.1¢-$241.23

Down$259.0951.7¢+$268.33

mo-money

Down

Invested

$506.7

Value

$963.83

PnL

+$457.13

Record

50%

1265-1289 (2554)

bosona

Down

Invested

$627.82

Value

$828.58

PnL

+$200.76

Record

51%

4524-4391 (8915)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$329.01

Value

$406.43

PnL

+$77.42

Record

46%

711-845 (1556)

Both legs:

Down$219.6154¢+$186.82

Up$109.3933.2¢-$109.39

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$314.1

Value

$361.84

PnL

+$47.75

Record

52%

4832-4520 (9352)

Both legs:

Down$193.153.4¢+$168.74

Up$120.9941.4¢-$120.99

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$373.99

Value

$312.87

PnL

+$42.52

Record

52%

2019-1897 (3916)

Both legs:

Down$165.5952.9¢+$146.74

Up$110.1837.9¢-$104.21

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$578.95

Value

$596.86

PnL

+$17.91

Record

98%

3320-70 (3390)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$273.17

Value

$297.51

PnL

+$24.33

Record

52%

772-727 (1499)

Both legs:

Down$230.2177.4¢+$67.3

Up$42.9716¢-$42.97

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$324.23

Value

$304.38

PnL

-$19.84

Record

55%

814-664 (1478)

Both legs:

Down$250.1782.2¢+$54.21

Up$74.0650.1¢-$74.06

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$176.15

Value

$179.21

PnL

+$3.06

Record

53%

781-693 (1474)

Both legs:

Up$61.9633.6¢-$61.96

Down$114.1963.7¢+$65.02

Little-big

Down

Invested

$64.77

Value

$177.69

PnL

+$112.92

Record

51%

885-846 (1731)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$96.67

Value

$125

PnL

+$28.33

Record

53%

4469-3887 (8356)

Both legs:

Up$30.9220.3¢-$30.92

Down$65.7552.6¢+$59.26

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$125.6

Value

$123.29

PnL

-$2.31

Record

46%

1344-1580 (2924)

Both legs:

Up$63.644.5¢-$63.6

Down$6250.3¢+$61.29

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.19

Value

$113

PnL

+$24.81

Record

46%

631-754 (1385)

Both legs:

Up$3.212.4¢-$3.21

Down$84.9875.2¢+$28.02

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 30 top traders (73%)29 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9ee0ddc4...0a624a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794646500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Down — $3.3K

+$32.76

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$375.23

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Down — $1.5K

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded